FAO forecasts decreases in meat, rice and soybean production in Uruguay for 2018

Meat and Meat Products

World beef production is forecast to increase by 1.8% to 72.1 million tonnes in 2018, marking a third year of solid growth. Particularly large increases are expected in Brazil and Argentina. On the other hand, the report predicts a decline in Uruguayan meat exports.

Of the other exporters, Brazil is expected to sell 7% more meat in international markets than in 2017, consolidating its position as the leading exporter. world exporter of beef. Brazil may experience a 34% contraction of pork by 2018. Brazil is expected to remain the largest exporter of poultry meat in the world.

Rice

For Latin America and the Caribbean, prospects are negative, and indicate an annual reduction of 1.5% of total production, which will fall to 18.6 million tonnes . Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Colombia, Uruguay and Venezuela will harvest less rice than in 2017, which will not be offset by increases planned in Bolivia, Chile, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Guyana, Paraguay and Peru. Latin America and the Caribbean could decline 5% to 4.2 million tonnes, due to reductions in Brazil, Haiti, Mexico and Peru, due to sufficient local availability and rising international prices. Brazil will experience a strong annual recovery (55%) of 2018 rice exports, forecast at 0.9 million tonnes.

Oleaginous crops, oils and fats

Total soybean production is estimated to contract by 9% in South America, with severe climate-related losses in Argentina, Paraguay and New Zealand. Uruguay exceeding Brazil's top production.

In Argentina, the third largest soybean producer in the world, the average yield has fallen to the lowest level of the last six years, and total output to the lowest level of the last nine years. By contrast, increases in seeded area and near-ideal growing conditions in Brazil have pushed production to unprecedented levels.

With regard to soybean oil, much of the sharp decline in shipments to Argentina and Uruguay will be offset by Brazil, the most competitive supplier of this season. In fact, in 2017-2018, Brazil could replace the United States as the world's third-largest supplier

In global flour transactions, Argentina could record the lowest level of the last nine years in its exports. Sales in Uruguay can be contracted from poor harvests. The main beneficiary would be Brazil, whose exports are expected to increase by 17%, consolidating the country's position as the world's largest supplier, ahead of the United States.

Milk

In South America, milk production in the region is expected to increase by 2.1% to 64.8 million tonnes, mainly because of profits in Argentina, Brazil and in Colombia. In Central America and the Caribbean, milk production is forecast to increase by 0.9 percent to 17.7 million tonnes. After a sharp drop in 2017, a recovery in production in Argentina should help revive the country's milk exports.

Trigo

In South America, the expansion of plantations in Argentina he increased his production forecast to 20 million tons, 8% more than the previous year, while Mexico, the largest producer in Central America, recorded low wheat plantings that significantly reduced its production forecasts.

Wheat imports into Latin America and the Caribbean are forecast to be around 25 million tonnes in 2018/19, an increase of about 1 million tonnes, mainly due to higher imports from Brazil and Mexico. wheat from the region.

Coarse grains

In South America, a significant decline in coarse grains production in Argentina and Brazil, and maize crops are expected to decline by about 15 percent by compared to the record of 2017.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, total maize imports for 2018/2019 are expected to reach nearly 36 million tonnes, or 1.3 million tonnes more than in 2017 / 18, the highest increase being expected in Mexico, Colombia and Chile. Imports of Mexican maize – the largest importer in the region – will hit a record 16.7 million tonnes, 900,000 tonnes more than in 2017/18, due to the growing demand for animal feed and the decline of domestic production.

The lowest maize exports from Brazil are expected: they will decrease from 1.5 million tonnes to 30 million tonnes in 2018/19. Total coarse grain exports from Argentina are expected to remain stable at just under 29 million tonnes.

Sugar

In South America, the latest estimates indicate a decrease in production in 2017/18, in generally unfavorable climatic conditions (Argentina) and a higher proportion of the sugar cane crop used for the production of ethanol (Brazil).

Sugar production in Brazil is expected to decrease: production is now estimated at 36 million tons, 4 million tons less than the volume reached in 2016/17. It is expected that about 58% of the sugarcane crop will be used for ethanol production.

In the rest of South America, sugar production is expected to increase in Colombia, the second largest sugar producer. the region and Peru, and that it falls in Argentina amid extremely dry conditions. In Guatemala, sugar production is expected to increase by 2% in 2017/18

Brazil will supply 42% of world exports in 2017/18. Similarly, exports from Guatemala, the second largest exporter in Latin America and the Caribbean, are expected to increase; Sugar has become an essential source of foreign exchange earnings for the country, which is focusing more and more on acquiring market share in the refined sugar segment.

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