The summit with Trump is Putin's triumph: analysts

Brussels.- The presidential palace of Helsinki, the capital of neutral Finland, will today host the first summit between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

The meeting will take place after Trump shook the status quo of NATO, insulting Chancellor Angela Merkel, claiming that her country is "captive" of Moscow for its energy dependence, and immisces in Great Britain's domestic policy as never before had an American leader

In the bilateral framework, the talks are taking place at a time when relations between Russia and the West languish to levels never seen since the cold war.

Visit last Friday at the British Prime Minister's summer residence in Checkers, Trump detailed the issues to be addressed with Putin: Syria, Ukraine, Middle East and Nuclear Proliferation.

He said his expectations were not high, although "great things could result." He said he would like to "hear" with Russia and Putin, that he saw twice.

From the point of view of NATO officials and the European Union, there is nervousness about the summit in Helsinki.

Dick Zandee, defense expert at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations, Clingendael, provides two scenarios.

"The best scenario is that Trump repeats Putin's official stance on Europe and NATO, that is to say continue to discuss with the Russians, especially on the mastery armaments, and show that NATO is united and that it will not accept situations such as the annexation of Crimea or Russian interference in sovereign countries as well as in East of Ukraine Zandee UNIVERSAL

"But there is fear in Europe that he is trying to hear about a new agreement with Putin in which he is making concessions , something similar to what happened with North Korea, where even the hour did not receive anything in return. "

The analyst says that in case of closing a pact with Putin, the tycoon would break the transatlantic unit and leave in a very sensitive state the EU, which requires every six months the consensus of its 28 members to maintain selective sanctions against Russia.

Zandee does not exclude this probability, and recalled that in a Twitter message, Trump said that the majority of the population in Crimea are Russians, and therefore must belong to Russia.

"We are facing a very dangerous situation," said the expert after mentioning that there are regions of the country. EU with high concentrations of people of Russian descent, like Ida-Viru, to the east of Estonia, where they represent 73% On the other hand, for Putin, the meeting with Trump more than a reward, means the recovery of the situation in which Russia was before the year unilateral decision of the Ukrainian province. "Putin will appreciate the fact that Obama's attempt to isolate Russia [Barack] ends with the arrival of his successor." In his analysis, Dimitri Trenin, of the Moscow Carnegie Center, writes "Putin is less interested in the story than in the message the meeting will send," he said.

According to the analyst, lowering the level of tension with the EU will benefit Putin's political agenda, which is increasingly domestically focused, especially socio-economically.

Believes that diplomatic and economic sanctions will follow, but will not be relevant on paper

There will still be restrictions on doing business with Moscow, "although Russia will no longer be toxic." business may emerge outside the arena of sanctions, which could potentially be a great victory for Vladimir Putin. "

European Commission statistics show a considerable reduction in Russia's trade with l 39; European Union and the EU. % and 20%, respectively in 2017, compared to 2014, due to the Russian financial recession, the collapse of the ruble, community sanctions and economic countermeasures dictated by Moscow.

The EU countries are the main partner the Russians, with 47% of all their foreign trade. Russian sales are concentrated in the energy sector, covering 31% of all gas consumed by the EU, 26% of coal and 32% of crude oil

"It sounds terrible to me, tragedy". Germany's energy dependence on Russia and the development of the Nordstream II gas pipeline.