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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has confirmed that expects global growth of 3.9% by 2018 although it will be [headdsthatthecommercialfightsbetweentheUnitedStatesanditspartnerscouldharmtheworldeconomyintheshortterm
"The risk that current trade tensions will intensify and have a negative impact on confidence and investment represents the greatest threat to global growth in the short term, "said Maurice Obstfeld, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
For the following year, the IMF also maintained the forecast expressed in April, from an increase of 3.9%.
But "avoiding protectionist measures and finding a cooperative solution, which promotes the growth of trade in goods and services, remains essential to preserve global expansion," said the agency.
In the midst of a trade conflict, the IMF has revised down the growth in the volume of merchandise trade.
In addition, he remained unchanged his projection that the US economy is growing by 2.4% this year, whose currency has appreciated about 5% since February.
The update released on Monday, however, revised down the expectations of several Latin American and European countries.
Latin America
The IMF adjusted its economic growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean for 2018 and 2019 on Monday, mainly because of the recent appreciation of the dollar and the rise in oil price.
The IMF estimates that the regional economy will be able to grow at a rate of 1.6% this year and 2.6% next year, a reduction of 0 , 4% and 0.2%, respectively, compared to the projection had been published in April
Despite the decline, the growth projection for Latin America still represents an increase over the growth of 1.3% recorded in 2017.
The Fund decreased by half a point (1.8%) its projection of the growth of the Brazilian economy this year, whose currency "It's depreciated by more than 10% due to a weaker than expected recovery and political uncertainty."
It also reduced the projections for Argentina Venezuela has devalued more than 50% since the beginning of the year – and Venezuela, whose oil production has dropped significantly for not being able to profit of the 16% price rise between February and June to recover from the economic collapse it's going through.
Despite the uncertainty generated by prolonged trade negotiations with the United States and the priorities that a new government could set, the IMF has maintained its 2.3% growth projection for 2018 for Mexican economy.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered the growth forecast for the euro area to 2.2% this year, two tenths lower than in April mainly because of the worst prospects for Germany, France and Italy, and maintains its estimates for Spain at 2.8%.
The Fund explains that this downward revision is due to the fact that economic activity in Germany and France "softened more than expected in the first quarter" since the political uncertainty in Italy has caused "more restrictive" financial conditions.
The IMF, which placed the outlook for global economic growth at 3.9% for both this year and the next, also moderated a tenth euro area growth for 2019 to 1.9%, while maintaining the same economic outlook for Spain, 2.8% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019.
With this, Spain remains at the top of the growth among the big Eurozone economies, followed by Germany, the leading regional economy, with a 2.2 for 2018 and 2.1% in 2019.
Source: AP / AFP / EFE
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