Why Ortega can not govern until 2021 without an alliance with the private sector?

Without the cooperation of Venezuela and without the private company as an ally, Daniel Ortega will not be able to govern until 2021. The foreign injection of more than four billion dollars into the economy since 2008 and the active role of private enterprise in the attractiveness of private investment has allowed Ortega to convince the big national and foreign capital that its model of dialogue and consensus was working because it kept the economy growing, dismantling institutions and kidnapping all the powers of the state with the ambition to perpetuate

This nomenclature of petrodollars and the model of dialogue with private companies have allowed Ortega to make the world believe that Nicaragua, one of the poorest economies in Latin America, was on the right track. His plan had placed the country in the small group of economies that was growing as the rest struggled between financial uncertainty and the quest for a new world economic order.

"The private company thought that Ortega had changed and maintained the dynamic investor of the previous 15 years.For these investments, the growth of the last 11 years would not have been explained, which was fundamental inside and outside the country to turn a blind eye to the fact that the stability of Nicaragua was at the expense of democracy condemned the economist Edmundo Jarquín

attempted to crush the voices

And while in Nicaragua voices, which the government tried to crush, urged the private company that this model was not backed As it was not built on a democratic basis, at the regional level some countries and international financial organizations praised it and considered it an example to follow

The problem is that the economic policy of Daniel Ortega, although he has the support of financial institutions, has failed to "articulate balanced growth and has not provided effective support to smaller sectors," said economist Alejandro Aráuz

. The proof is that more than 40% of Nicaraguans have precarious jobs, levels of labor force productivity are excessively low and a large majority can not cover the entire basic basket or contributions to the labor market. social Security. Léa: Ovidio Reyes thinks the worst of the crisis in Nicaragua has already passed

When three years ago, the regime began to suffer from the serious contraction of Venezuelan cooperation Ortega showed more in addition to his desire to distance himself from the private enterprise and to accelerate the process of demolition of institutionalism to retain power.

Ortega had nothing to offer private companies. way still shy to bring the country back to democracy. The regime's much touted model collapsed three months ago, while in its eagerness to meet the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) requirements to weather the chavez debacle, Ortega imposed a social security reform. He went down the streets to Nicaraguans, responding to the state with brutal repression that now leaves more than three hundred murders, thousands of wounded and missing.

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"In the crisis, grievances were associated with different sectors that ended up being skewed. articulate with the great democratic demand ignored by the national and international community, "said Jarquín, stressing that with this crisis, the private company must understand that for" Ortega there are only some friends (unconditional, of course), and enemies, and now he sees the private sector as an enemy. "

Missed and False

"We have had a failed economic and political model to date, and already people have said enough," said former Finance Minister Mario Arana, who affirms "an inclusive model of democracy with freedoms and rights for all equally, states of law, in matters of property and institutions that guarantee equal rights for all."

With this in mind, Economist Enrique Sáenz concludes: "Ortega is not able to govern … neither with a private company nor with a private company for the simple reason that the model of previous years has collapsed from its base. and that there are no conditions for republishing it. "

" Ortega became a toxic ally. "He was placed against the church, against international human rights organizations Man, against the Americans, against the same businessmen, against the commu international community and against the people, "he said, while recalling that he is a loser. wants to ally with a loser. Less big capitals. Ortega is not in a position to give them any guarantees, so common sense probably advises them to continue to demand democratic reforms. "

Disastrous projections

If Ortega insists to stay in power, Arana emphasizes that Nicaragua will not see the growth rates of recent years, which were already insufficient in themselves.On the basis of an analysis of the Economic Intelligence Unit, Arana explains that the economy will decline by 1.8% this year, the next will rebound by 0.9% and 2.3% in 2020.

"This projection would still consider it optimistic, but we would be 5% off that we were growing on average before this political crisis, "he revealed.

These projections show figures" disastrous for Nicaraguan families. I consider that this administration, with the level of social upheaval that we have achieved, does not have the capacity to recover governability nor the Nicaraguan economy. And the best thing to do is to negotiate a way out of the crisis that will buy the long-term stability of the country, "said Mr. Arana

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"Several sectors were banking on a soft landing and Ortega kicked the table, raised the stall and demonstrates by his actions that he prefers to crush and not talk about landing. Like Somoza, he leaves everyone with no choice but to face him and lift his foot, "said Sáenz.

Insist on Democratization

Private society seems convinced that the model of alliance with Ortega is exhausted and that any solution to the crisis depends on responding to the demands of the population: to make the Democracy in Nicaragua

The President of the Higher Council of Private Enterprise (Cosep), José Adán Aguerri, said that "the social and political crisis in the country is almost three months old and that the repression continues unabated. to be exacerbated by government forces.This has increased the environment of insecurity of citizens and has affected the image and the risks of the country.On the other hand, regaining investor confidence will require a prior resolution of the current legitimacy crisis. "

" Improving the image of the country will require a lot of effort, but especially time.At the moment, companies of all sizes have been affected. # 39; hui There is no trust, there will be no credit, no investment, no recovery of tourism. Trust is not obtained through the use of brute force or repression. Confidence is not achieved by politically using some partisan SMEs. Business confidence does not depend on political colors, warns Aguerri

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reminded that "growth is generated by the private sector and during all these years we have encouraged domestic and foreign investment, not only abroad, but also to foreign investors who wanted to know first-hand what In addition, our ongoing work to address the bottlenecks of the private sector is its ongoing relationship with the public sector, which has allowed us to overcome many of the administrative hurdles that have occurred to us. allowed to go ahead and stimulate economic growth. "[19659002] You can read also: The drop in bank deposits would stop even more Nica credit deliveries ragua

Is there more retaliation?

The private sector is aware that Ortega will attack their interests. Already in the current crisis has launched its repressive machine against the sector, which actively demands early elections. In these three months of crisis, Ortega ordered the invasion of farms, a ghost that was thought buried, after the piñata that the Sandinista government has also played in the past.

The chairman of the Economic and Budget Committee of the National Assembly, Wálmaro Gutiérrez, told the pro-government media last week that in the coming weeks, the government will push for tax reform, which will reduce the exemptions and exemptions, a requirement that the IMF raised on the table, the government had until now not having the Cosep alliance now, Gutiérrez said that they would seek the MSMEs who for years have been marginalized by the government in their economic policies, so now they would only be looking for how they would legitimize their measures.

"At the present time, the reduction in economic activity has had a direct impact on the collection of taxes and the State will surely seek resources that can" In the absence of consensus with the private sector, there is no return of information necessary for its evaluation, "added Mr. Aguerri

and in this we must understand that many tax advantages reach directly to the end consumer and by removing these benefits, they would affect a currently very small population, "he warned.

" Like any reform, the risks are going beyond the simple question of exemptions or exemptions and open a series of questions that could affect a number of issues of the tax plan. "

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Sáenz stated that "Ortega has no n recourse that can support it. Neither domestic nor foreign investors will invest in the country. With the fall in production and revenues, how will the INSS crisis be resolved? How are you going to cope with public spending? How will you maintain the subsidy for urban transport? How are you going to make the necessary tax reform? How will you maintain your relations with the IMF? "

That is why Enrique Sáenz insisted:" Business leaders no longer have any motivation or reason to stay on the same boat as Ortega. "

The country is going to be Venezuela?

Although Daniel Ortega does not have the oil wells that his ally Nicolás Maduro has under his command, economists admit that it remains in the power of Ortega – s & he continues to remain in power until 2021 – can lead the economy by the same abyss as Maduro directs his country.

Economist Alejandro Aráuz stressed that "the extension of Ortega's stay in power will gradually weaken the country's economic fundamentals and, in perspective, will return it to the difficult years of the 1980s. and 1990. "

He adds:" There is this probability that it is real: the country could be isolated. or the business, external financial environment, productivity levels of the 1990s, etc.

Therefore, he insists, the departure of Daniel Ortega as soon as possible benefits the country: "Now, if you stay longer, the most serious evil that can happen in the country is that (to reach the Venezuelan levels), the economic decline that would cost many years and sacrifices to the population, especially young people. "