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"There will be no transition to Cuba … not even communism," writes Cuban dissident journalist Reinaldo Escobar in his column 14ymedio, the clandestine newspaper that is published in Havana and published on the internet .
And the only truly new thing that the proposed reform proposes up here is that Cubans will be able to vote by referendum on the final text of the new magna letter The rest seems to be an exercise in blur and d & # 39; edition to save the furniture of the revolution and stretch as much as possible a real change of regime
. Much has been said about the elimination of the word "communism" from the new constitutional text. However, immediately afterwards, the government is anxious to clarify that Article 5 of the 1976 Constitution will be upheld, which states that the Communist Party is "the top ruling force of society and society". State ", even above the Constitution itself. . As if that were not enough, the deputies who write the new text are all members of the Communist Party
Raúl never forgot what he said privately. admired Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping during perestroika in the Soviet Union: "Gorbachev made a big mistake: he launched economic openness and political openness at the same time, and politics will engulf both of them "
In the same scheme, the recognition of private property and the impetus for foreign investment are listed, of which a more flexible regulatory framework is expected in order to to facilitate the inflow of capital and to give guarantees to investors, in a country stifled by the remains of old Marxist policies which, nearly sixty years ago, removed all vestige of private property and removed the free company
The regime continued to depend on Venezuela subsidies for its survival, as it had done before for the Soviet Union. The brutal political and economic crisis that erupted later in Venezuela after the death of Hugo Chávez and the coming to power of Nicolás Maduro, began to give dangerous signals that the Venezuelan vital grant would not be eternal.
With a lot of cunning and no less effective, Raul then tried to legitimize himself internationally as a pragmatic leader with a regional projection and ready to leave behind the old hostilities of the Cold War. He reestablished diplomatic relations with the United States, was the host and guarantor of the peace process between the Colombian government and the FARC guerrillas and made his image of a conciliatory and integrationist leader a pro-presidency. Tempore of Celac
. Donald Trump's at the White House was not in his plans. Soon, the "thawed" bilateral relations began to freeze again. The United States withdrew most of its diplomats in Havana and expelled several Cubans from the embassy in Washington for an alleged – and very mysterious – "acoustic attack", which seemed more like an excuse developed by a trained spirit in espionage, at the request of Trump to please Florida's influential Republican sectors and his most notable champion at the Capitol, the young Cuban-American senator Marco Rubio
The profitable diplomatic trident that Raúl was able to comply with former President Barack Obama and Pope Francisco now seemed a dream truncated by a brutal awakening. There was little that he could hope for from Washington to continue washing his face with the diet with advertisements for cosmetic renovations that were broadcast as historical landmarks. And the Vatican alone appears as an unlikely savior of socialist paradise. You had to mix and give back.
Raul's assurances on the loyalty of his dolphin Diaz-Canel had to pass the test of doubt. Otherwise, the new president would never have survived the incessant purges in which his three predecessors of the generational change of the regime have succumbed.
The first big news – another historical milestone – came with the inauguration of his dolphin Diaz-Canel. To get to this place, Raul's assurances about his loyalties must have passed the acid test of all doubts. Otherwise, the new president would never have survived the relentless purges in which his three predecessors of generational regime change have succumbed; namely, former Foreign Minister Robertico Robaina, former Vice President Carlos Lage and former Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque. All, young rising stars today condemned to ostracism.
Diáz-Canel, on the other hand, promises a smooth transition. Transition to what? For the Asian model, which Raúl perseveres as the only lifeline. In fact, there is no other choice. A genuine democratic opening would make him lose all political control, in addition to privileges; and could have serious legal consequences for himself and his family and for the other fall hierarchies of the nomenklatura.
That is why he is now trying to revive the economic reforms he left unfinished, for which the new Constitution will be the party. Raul never forgot what his admired Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping said privately during perestroika in the Soviet Union: "Gorbachev made a big mistake: he launched economic opening and opening political at the same time, and politics will swallow at two o'clock. "
Deng's words were prophetic for the fate of the USSR; while in China, its own economic openness with a total political closure has made it less than a decade in the global power that it is today, and this does not seem not have a ceiling. This caused a big impact on the Cuban leader. And he clung to this idea for a few years before taking power over Fidel's illness. Even for a while, he tried in vain to convince his brother to go that way.
Later and already inducted into the Palace of the Revolution, Raúl understood that imitating the Asian giant's economic miracle on a Caribbean island of 11 million inhabitants was a chimera as distant as the upper phase of the Communism.
then an example closer to its reality, or at least a little smaller in terms of population. This is how his look began with the model of Vietnam, a country that also maintained its socialist political system but with a market economy that, over the last 20 years, has guaranteed one of the highest rates in the world. the highest growth rates in the world.
There are today Raúl's guajiros dreams. Some versions of the foreign press in Cuba say that shortly after the appointment of Díaz-Canel, he and his team met for several days in Havana with a Vietnamese delegation led by a strong man of the regime, the secretary general of the Communist Party. From Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Trong
In summary, few freedoms can be expected from the new Cuban constitution. Freedom of the press, freedom of expression in general, freedom of association and other political freedoms will be outlawed. The only advance in this direction, apart from the consecration of private property, will be what indicates the legalization of homosexual marriage.
Economic freedom and sexual freedom are two fundamental rights of democratic societies, and undoubtedly in Cuba they will be a very important step in the right direction. But in the absence of civil and political liberties, one can not yet speak of a free country or an open society that offers constitutional guarantees to its citizens.
Thus, it will be at the discretion of Díaz-Canel – if some The day is encouraged to kick Raúl to give a real democratic turn and finally bring freedoms to Cuba.
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