Saudi Arabia suspends oil deliveries after Yemen attack and triggers barrel price

The new energy minister, Javier Iguacel, has not yet installed himself in his chair and faces an unstable international energy scenario. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, which also holds about half of the reserves of the fluid, has decided to suspend oil deliveries through the strategic strait of Bab el-Mandeb, after another rebel attack. This decision, which may accompany another strong oil exporter such as Kuwait, as announced by the chairman of the country's main company, has had a direct correlation in the Brent price which closed this Monday of 75 dollars.

In this way, the expected barrel stability of OPEC's announcement of a growing oil production of one million barrels a day is jeopardized, which adds other doubts to the traumatic energy context of Argentina.

"The path planned by Aranguren is dead, but the authorities admit themselves that they have no idea of ​​the value of the barrel that they will establish," assured the LPO as an important source of the sector.

Energy prices with the real economy are so numerous that they place it as one of the most important relative prices. The value of gasoline is one of the most influential factors in the evolution of the CPI, generating a dollar-inflation spiral expressed in the latest Indec data.

"At the local level, a rise in Brent aggravates the whole picture as we go through, and the price of the last devaluation has not yet been finalized, and we already have an external shock of this nature that leaves us even further … perfect storm: more inflation, more devaluation, is the worst of all worlds, today you can not establish reference price, no one knows what 's going on 39, is a liter of gasoline, since these relative prices change all the time. "Di Pelino spokesman of the Center for the Study of Economic Regulation of Public Services (Ceres) of the University of Belgrano

Whatever the case may be, for Di Pelino this is not new, but the volatility of the barrel has a historical dimension. "The government can not trace its energy policy by imagining a stable barrel he manages all the events and shows no capacity for reaction, "he said.

latest devaluation prices have not yet been set and we already have external shock of this nature that leaves us further. It's the perfect storm: more inflation, more devaluation, is the worst of all worlds, says Di Pelino.

The Saud conflict is explained by its interference in the armed uprising that has been unleashed in Yemn since 2015, when Riyadh He fights against the rebel group Chita Huthi, which he accuses of being financed by Irn.

The rebels have carried out numerous attacks against Saudi targets in recent months, particularly at the exit of the Red Sea in the Bab al Mandeb Strait, which, just 20 kilometers wide, makes them very vulnerable to ships. tankers that, according to the US Government's Energy Information Administration (EIA), daily carry 4.8 million barrels to Europe, the United States and Asia

If this measure is extended, it will mean an increase in transportation costs due to having to make a southward deviation from Africa, add some 4,300 kilometers to the original route between Saudi Arabia and the United States.

The geopolitical risks that threaten the oil market do not stop there since Irn threatens to block the Straits of Ormuz in response to Trump's latest sanctions.

Be that as it may, the specialists relativize the problems posed to historical speculation that the various oil powers have made according to their interests. "In this zone, there are still many menacing tactical moves," said Marcelo Elizondo. Some argue that Riyadh is trying to pressure the United States to get more support from the Trump administration regarding the Yemen conflict.

Others, like financial analyst Francisco Uriburu, explain that the search for a higher oil price is due to the upcoming launch of shares of Aramco, the main oil company which is not yet publicly traded. "The goal is a barrel of $ 80, which will give this operation a very important dimension, given that it is the largest oil company in the world," Uriburu said.