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Photo: EFE / Repository
(Caracas, Aug. 08, 2012) – The difficult economic situation of Argentina in recent months, marked by the weakness of its currency, is already affecting domestic consumption from the country ballasted by loss of purchasing power and restrictive monetary policy a situation that is expected to continue for the rest of the year.
Although the latest official data on consumption available date from April, when the debacle The peso has only just begun and the government has not yet been forced to ask for it. International Monetary Fund (IMF) aid .The supermarket survey this month showed a 2.1% drop in sales this month, and the Chamber of Commerce in June after more than a year Record in real estate purchases with mortgages (one of the biggest successes of the ruling party), they fell by 26.9% in May. compared to the previous month, according to the Association of Public Notaries of Buenos Aires, a phenomenon closely related to the increase of the dollar, in a particularly dependent country of the American currency.
This month, retail sales of According to data from the Confederation of Argentine Medium Enterprises, the number of SMEs decreased by 4.8% year-on-year and by 4.2% in June
. Exchange rate uncertainty continued to affect consumption, "to which" added the greatest employment and income problems, especially in the middle-income sectors and weak. "
which was already in the red in May, recorded a drop of 17.2% per month and 18.2% year-on-year.
In analyzing the causes of these declines in consumption, Faust Spotorno economist, Orlando Ferreres consultancy, has marked the fall of Argentine purchasing power after the rebound in inflation unbridled by the rising dollar. [19659004] Most wage negotiations closed with a 15% increase Although the government is promoting an additional 5 percentage points to recompose wages, the consensus of experts predicts a price increase of nearly 30%, and The most pessimistic predictions bring this percentage down to 35%.
Uncertainty, Spotorno told Efe that one of the biggest brakes of the economy are the rates. high interest of the Central Bank set at 40%, but which represents a plaque for the real economy by attracting a portion of capital towards financial investments.
For the analyst, these difficulties will remain until early next year and can begin to resolve when the exchange rate stabilizes, reducing inflation and allowing a decline in interest rates.
And is it the decline in consumption, said Spotorno, is another consequence of the economic growth pause, difficult to reactivate in the context of a larger adjustment imposed after the 39 agreement with the IMF.
The private consultants periodically consulted by the Central Bank have lowered GDP growth forecasts by 1.3% to 0.5% by 2018 in one month, and predict a decline in GDP growth. 0.7% of the economy for the third quarter of the year.
According to information from EFE
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