Central bank maintains rate but warns of trade war

The Central Bank Council maintained the monetary policy rate (MPR) for the fourteenth consecutive month.

The decision, adopted unanimously, emphasizes that "although the economy has shown greater dynamism than expected and the short-term outlook for total inflation have returned to To redress the situation, mainly due to the increase in the exchange rate, the medium-term outlook contained in the June Monetary Policy Report do not change. "

D one your more explicit than at the previous meeting RPM), the statement maintains that the key rate "will return to its neutral level in the coming quarters", aligned with the scenario of the latest report on monetary policy.

Global Analysis

In his communication, he noticed that in the US economy "there is less and less margin" and that the figures of the activity and of the business are the same. "inflation" are increasingly different from those of the euro area and Japan. "

the risks associated with a trade conflict scenario, "in which the risks and their implications" have increased. "

Faced with this, he argues that the increase in some tariffs" and escalating announcements and statements from the various players involved have affected the markets. "

" Despite all of the above, global growth projections have not shown any changes. "

Mercado makes its bets

Following the decision, BBVA Research assured that the external uncertainty ends up" putting cold clothes on the good news ", before which they affirmed that" we continue to see that the first quarter of 2019 marks the first step of the recovery. "

Benjamín Sierra, chief economist at Scotiabank, the most explicit tone" definitely excludes any possibility of a rise in September, "since, according to him "The Central Bank will resist normalization until it is completely sure of a strong re-acceleration." Bci Estudios reiterated that she was waiting for to a rise of 25 basis points for October, by which time the resumption of activity would have been consolidated, with inflation that would be around the goal. "