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As part of a tax reform published on the first day of the year, its success will depend on its ability to stimulate entrepreneurship; with a wage increase of 6% for those who earn the minimum wage, which will allow households to have greater consumption capacity and inflation which indicates that it will remain in the target range of the Bank of the Republic (2 and 4%), the letters are placed in the country so that there is a higher output growth at 3%, which will put this economy in 2019 in fifth place among those that develop most in Latin America.
In fact, during this week, the world Bank He reviewed his forecasts and, while forecasting a global deceleration panorama from the previous year, the projection of Colombia stagnated at 3.3 percent, saying that even Venezuelans could continue to generate added value. l & # 39; economy. "This could result in an increase in growth resulting from an increased supply of labor, increased consumption and a larger investment," the report says.
The good omens of the World Bank for national production to be greater than that of Brazil (2.2%), Argentina (-1.7%) and Mexico (2%)and only below that of Bolivia (4.3%), Paraguay (3.9%), Peru (3.8%) and Chile (3.5%) they have many livelihoods, not to mention that there are also threats.
(Read also: the UN expresses its willingness to expand its collaboration with Venezuela)
For Camilo Pérez, head of economic research at Banco de Bogotá, although there is no doubt that the country's growth this year will be greater than the previous year, It is also essential not to be so optimistic, taking into account the backlash that could come from the global environment.
Among the pillars highlighted by Pérez, to support a growing economy beyond that of 2018, is the fact that the outlook for household consumption is favorable.
"Interest rates will continue to fall, which goes hand in hand with a wage increase of at least 6%, which will increase the purchasing power of families and allow households to catch up in the consumption of durable goods, which had been slowed down in the previous three years. "
On the employment side, although Banco de Bogotá's expert does not foresee any changes in the labor market, since companies have to pay a higher minimum wage, the director of the think tank Anif, Sergio Clavijo, has some risks
While Perez believes that the higher expenses for better pay from the workforce will be offset by the need to increase production in order to meet the demand for high-growth products, Clavijo believes that the unemployment in urban areas will recover.
"The improvement in national unemployment, where we expect a slight correction towards the rates of 9.4% (annual average) against 9.6% in 2018, will be overshadowed by the persistence of urban unemployment close to 11% (with high incidence of Venezuelan migrants). "
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