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Trade tensions
threaten growth
world this year
[19.07.2018] –
Update
22:00 Cuba
According to a balance
published by the Fund
International Monetary
(IMF), the controversies
commercial between
United States and its
partners can harm
short-term economy
global, who is waiting
2018 growth
world level of 3.9%.
The risk
trade tensions
current
step up and that
negative impact
confident and
investment represents
biggest threat to the
global growth
the short term says
Maurice Obstfeld,
chief economist
Monetary Fund
International (IMF).
For next year
The IMF has also maintained
forecast expressed in
April, of a growth
3.9%.
But let us avoid the measures
protectionists and
find a solution
cooperative,
promote growth
trade in goods and
services, rest
essential to preserve
the global expansion,
claims the body.
In the midst of conflict
the IMF has
revised downward
volume growth
of the exchange of
merchandise
The update
published this Monday,
however, review
lowers the expectations of
several European countries and
also from America
Latina.
According to the IMF,
Latin America and
The Caribbean will grow 1.6%
2018, although in April
I had manifested
waiting for the advancement of
2.0%. In 2019, the IMF
waiting for the region
2.6% growth, 0.2
percentage points
less than in April
UNCERTAINTIES
The Fund pointed out that
the reduction is a reflection of
the need for adjustments
in Argentina, a
scenario of
political uncertainties
in Brazil and the tensions
advertisements without
solve between Mexico and
United States.
Argentina was shaken
by an acute crisis
financial in the first
semester of this year
force the government to a
reorganization of his
cabinet and resort to
IMF, who granted him
50,000 credits
millions of dollars.
However, the country
continue with a high
inflation and a rate
basic interest
40%, one of the most
high of the world. In
the case of Brazil, the
prospects for
growth are few
inspiring, according to the
IMF.
The economy has a
I'm doing below
its potential, the debt
the public is high and in
increase, and even more
important,
prospects for
medium growth
term remains little
inspiring,
For the year 2018, the IMF
is waiting in Brazil for
1.8% growth, what
which implies a cut
half a point
percentage compared to
Estimate of April.
Regarding Mexico,
the IMF maintained at 2.3%
your expectation of
growth if
slightly cut the
forecasts for 2019, from
3.0% to 2.7%.
Regarding Mexico,
Obstfeld said on Monday
that we have included the
uncertainty about
Free Treaty
Trade of America
North (NAFTA) in the
foresight, although added
that the Fund assumes that
negotiations for
the renovation of
agreement are
concluded at the end of
2019.
At a press conference,
Obstfeld said that
it's difficult
exaggerate the severity of
the economic situation
in Venezuela but not
advance the numbers on
the expected performance of
this country this year.
Obstfeld pointed out that
IMF in the
the next years
contraction of two
figures in the GDP of
Venezuela, added to
hyperinflation that
will not match
Zimbabwe and
period between the two
World Wars.
PARTICIPATING IN THE AREA
FROM THE EURO
At the present time, the
projection for two
big savings
of the world -States
United and China,
protagonists of one
commercial war without
mercy – remained without
changes for this year.
On the other hand, the IMF
that the growth of
developped countries
to be located at 2.4% (-0.1
percentage point) in
2018, with the United States
at the top (+ 2.9%),
thanks to the impetus of the
tax reform
implemented for
2017, which consists of
a low tax
for households and
The Fund has also reduced
the planned expansion
for the euro area (-0.2
percentage points,
2.2%), due to
lower forecasts
for Germany (-O, 3
percentage points to
2.2%), France (-0.3 pp
at 1.8%) and in Italy (-0.3
pp at 1.2%).
The observed organism
a slowdown in
economic activity ms
pronounced what
planned in the first
quarter, for both
leading economies and
mention as problem
l & # 39; uncertainty
policy in Italy.
With regard to the United Kingdom,
whose growth was
calculated at 1.4% (-0.2
pp on that
expected in April),
Brexit conditions
they are still uncertain
despite months of
the conversations said
Obstfeld.
Also, that the
interruptions of
supply and
geopolitical tensions
they helped raise
the price of oil,
which benefits the
export passes
Russia and other countries
Average producers
East
The IMF recommends
governments are more
attentive to fairness
economic and protect
the poorest, since
recovery
economic did not generate
a distribution
enough.
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