Earth in 200 million years: scientists show what would be the next "supercontinent"

In 200 or 250 million years, our planet will be totally different from what it is today, as all continents today gather in a new "supercontinent". Researchers Mattias Green (Bangor University, UK), Hannah Sophia Davies and Joao C. Duarte (University of Lisbon, Portugal) detail in an article in The Conversation what this process would look like.

From the beginning, the experts explain that the tectonic plates that make up the earth's crust are constantly moving, moving at a speed of a few centimeters per year. This means that from time to time, in geological terms, the continents come together in a supercontinent, which stays together for a few hundred million years before dividing again.

The last supercontinent, Pangea, was formed about 310 million years ago and began to separate about 180 million years ago. The next should be created in about 200 or 250 million years. The breakup of Pangea has resulted in the formation of the Atlantic Ocean, which continues to open and expand, while the Pacific Ocean is closing and narrowing. The authors of the article also recall that the Pacific is home to a ring of subduction zones around its periphery (the ring of fire), while the Atlantic only counts two.

According to the researchers, there are four fundamental scenarios for the formation of the next supercontinent: Novopangea, Pangea Ultima, Aurica and Amasia.

Novopangea

If the current conditions are maintained – with the opening of the Atlantic and the diminishing Pacific – the next supercontinent will form on the other side of the old Pangea, according to experts. The Americas will collide with Antarctica, which has moved north, then with Africa and Eurasia already together, to create what is known as Novopangea.

Pangea Last

If the expansion of the Atlantic slows down and begins to close, its two small subduction arcs could extend along the east coast of the Americas, resulting in a recreation of the Pangea. America, Europe and Africa would meet again in a supercontinent now called Pangea Ultima, which would be surrounded by a Pacific supercean.

Aurica

On the other hand, if new subduction zones appear in the Atlantic, both oceans could be closed and a new ocean basin should be formed to replace them.

In this scenario, the pan-Asian fissure – which currently crosses Asia from western India to the Arctic – would open to form this new ocean. The result would be the formation of the supercontinent Aurica, whose center would be Australia, currently drifting north.

Amasia

Finally, the fourth scenario assumes "a completely different destiny for the future Earth", the researchers underline. In this sense, they point out that many of the tectonic plates, notably Africa and Australia, are currently heading north, a process likely motivated by the anomalies left by Pangea in the Earth's mantle. So you can imagine a scenario in which all the continents, except Antarctica, continue to move north until they reach around this pole a supercontinent that has received the hypothetical name of amasi.

Which scenario is most likely?

Scientists believe that Novopangea is the most likely scenario because it is a logical progression of current trends, while the other three cases involve additional process intervention.