Expectations should be reduced in the face of falling oil production

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday maintained its forecast of global economic growth this year, at 3.9%, but cautioned against the effects of a trade war between the United States and China. In its updated economic forecast for April, the IMF also maintained its forecast for next year, when global GDP is also expected to increase by 3.9%.

"The risk that current trade tensions will intensify and this negative impact on confidence and investment represents the greatest threat to global growth in the short term," said Maurice Obstfeld, economist chief at the IMF.

The entity revised down 0.4 percentage point 2,% to 1.6%, its forecast for the growth of the economy of Latin America and the Caribbean for this year.

The IMF emphasized that expectations in Venezuela should be reduced even in the event of a decline in production volumes. Oil

However, the IMF has not yet revealed the figures of this country whose economy is won by hyperinflation and which has been in recession for years .

The Fund pointed out that this reduction reflects the need for adjustments in Argentina, the scenario of political uncertainties in Brazil and the unresolved trade tensions between Mexico and the United States.

Argentina has been shaken by an acute financial crisis during the first half of this year. the government has recourse to the IMF to obtain a credit of 50 000 million dollars.

However, the country continues to post high inflation and a basic interest rate of 40%, one of the highest in the world.

In the case of Brazil, it was pointed out that growth prospects were "not very inspiring".

"The economy has a performance below its potential, the public debt is high and rising, and even more important The medium-term growth prospects remain bleak," said the IMF.

By 2018, the IMF expects 1.8% growth in Brazil; For Mexico, the IMF maintained its growth forecast unchanged from April, at 2.3%, although it reduced the forecast for 2019 from 3.0% to 2.7%.

The projection for the world's two largest economies – the United States and China – remained unchanged for this year despite the trade war between them.

For the IMF, the growth of developed countries will be 2.4% (-0.1 percentage point) in 2018, with the United States in the lead (+ 2.9%), thanks to the promotion of The Fund also reduced the planned expansion for the euro area (-0.2 percentage points to 2.2%), due to lower forecasts for Germany (-0.3). percentage points to 2.2%), France (-0.3 pp to 1.8%) and Italy (-0.3 pp to 1.2%).