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In Brazil, they blame the truckers' strike last May for the collapse of industrial production. That month, the carriers stopped for 10 days; enough time to cause an 11% drop in goods manufactured by the country. But the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) did not stay with the monthly data: it believes that there will be no recovery in the rest of the country. Year due to lack of business confidence. This is one of the components of the heavy legacy that the next government will receive; the others are the very high public deficit, a growing domestic debt and unemployment of 13% of the economically active population.
The result was "so bad" that it took the level of manufacturing production it was recorded in December 2003, 15 years ago. This was emphasized by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The same official institution said that the volume manufactured is 24% lower than the record reached in May 2011, seven years ago. It is not just the transport strike that has caused such a setback. This should also be attributed to unemployment and falling wages, which pushed consumption down. The proof is the dismal performance of the durable goods sector, which is generally associated with domestic demand. It was reduced by 27.4%. Even worse, he went to the auto sector: he did not fall to less than 30%.
But there is another extremely revealing fact that should have a strong influence in the months to come. The production of capital goods, used by the industry itself, decreased by 18.3%. One question stems from these dramatic figures: what can happen with cars, one of the pillars of the Brazilian economy? According to data from the National Federation of Motor Vehicle Distribution, the trade in cars, agricultural machinery and trucks has declined significantly: patents have dropped 7.4% compared with April.
Of course, what happened in Brazil? The stop trucking is an experience to consider. "This strike affected because no raw material was received for production.But also because the stock of goods could not be distributed on the market.This did not justify that companies continue to produce at the same pace, "said Andre Macedo, Director of Statistics IBGE
Strike and falling consumption they went hand in hand with the mistrust of companies. No one is betting on the standardization of production for the rest of the year . And that means postponing the investment plans. Of course, in the spirit of retraction, the imminence of the October elections, which continue under an image of uncertainty, is influenced. Until now, the only one that seems to emerge as the eventual successor to Michel Temer is the ultra-conservative Jair Bolsonaro, who has promised to adapt to the more neoliberal agenda. However, there are other candidates like Ciro Gomes who can grow if the Workers' Party gives him his definitive support. This politician, who spoke Wednesday among the CNI's businessmen, said he could review the labor reform that became law in the first year of the Temer government.
Of course, uncertainties are not exclusively electoral. They influence, and more strongly than expected, the international situation. Without going too far Brazil's own economic panorama should have an impact on Brazil . With the devaluation of the peso and restrictions on consumption, imports of manufactured goods from the South American giant have fallen significantly. Argentine purchases of refrigerators, washing machines, cars and components manufactured by the Brazilians allowed the neighbor to accumulate a significant positive difference in the balance of their trade balance. This is on the way out.
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