The campaign enters a decisive phase in Brazil with the conclaves of the supporters

RIO DE JANEIRO.- Initiated the congress season last night, the electoral race in Brazil is already a case
sui generis .

The favorite candidate is in prison and would be unable to compete; the second in the polls has problems finding a formulaic partner, and the other main contenders this week have contested the support of the minor parties splashed with allegations of corruption, ironically, one of the problems that most concern the Brazilians after the coup of wind "It will be a very strange campaign, marked by desperate negotiations and uncertainty until the last moment on who will win, by the large percentage of undecided current," predicted analyst Glauco Peres da Silva at LA NACION, Professor of Political Science at the University of São Paulo

According to the latest Datafolha survey, last month, between 21% and 33% of respondents do not know who they are going to vote for. Your doubts may begin to disappear here until August 5, the expiry date of the official launching conventions of their candidates.

The first big question that remains is what will happen to the candidacy of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Since April, he is serving a 12-year prison sentence for corruption and money laundering in a case related to Lava Jato. According to Brazilian law, the top leader of the Left Workers' Party (PT), who directs the voting intentions with 30% support, is disqualified from the protest because he has already been sentenced in second instance by a college.

Plan B petista

In public, the PT reiterates that he will seek to register Lula before the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) until August 15, expiry date, in the hope that the application will be accepted while the exmandatario will appeal its sanction before the Supreme Court. In private, a plan B is already in preparation, with an alternative candidate who could be the former mayor of the city of San Pablo Fernando Haddad or the former governor of the state of Bahia Jaques Wagner. And it is negotiated for the young presidential candidate of the Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB), Manuela D 'Avila, agrees to go as vice of the designated petista.

In a scenario without Lula, polls stand in the forefront of intentions to vote for far-right MP Jair Bolsonaro of the Social Liberal Party (PSL), with 19% of voters. However, this support was not enough to get a racing companion.

The first option of the exparacaidista of the army was the popular senator and evangelical pastor Magno Malta, of the Partido de la Republica (PR). This was a pragmatic step: with his big congressional caucus, the PR would have contributed 45 seconds worth of PSL's free electoral space to radio and television, which was barely eight seconds away. But this plan was frustrated: Malta decided that it was better to seek his almost assured re-election in the Senate than to embark on a high-risk adventure with Bolsonaro, famous for his controversial statements in defense of the last dictatorship and against women , gays.

Bolsonaro then indicated an unusual military formula and invited the reserve general Augusto Heleno Ribeiro Pereira, former commander of the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Haiti in 2004. Member of the tiny Progressive Republican Party (PRP), the General did not contribute to the TV propaganda, but reinforced the hard image of Bolsonaro and his promises of order and security. But the decision was rejected by the PRP itself, which does not share the controversial positions of Bolsonaro.

"The reality of Bolsonaro has struck, although it has been a phenomenon in social networks and represents a novelty in Brazilian politics, it is a very isolated extremist, with a captive electorate that seems to have reached its ceiling, if he does not build alliances, connections at national and municipal level, and does not win television and funding, his candidacy will experience a vertiginous drop. " Calmon, of the Institute of Political Science of the University of Brasilia

Meanwhile, the other main candidates have fought a fierce battle in the last hours for the support of the minor parties, but they would provide some radio and television time. support and structures in states and municipalities.

The ecologist Marina Silva, of the Sustainability Network (Red), who has an intention to vote of 15%, is he surrounded the Socialist People's Party (PPS), the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) and the Party of the Republican Social Order (Pros), although it still has not reached agreement.

The center, much sought after

For his part, the former Ceará governor, Ciro Gomes, of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT), with 11% of respondents, and the former governor of San Pablo Geraldo Alckmin, Party of the Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB), 10% of the intention to vote, were leagued in a feverish fight to gain support from the center parties, which have large parliamentary groups, such as the PR, the Party Progressive (PP), the Brazilian Republican Party (PRB), the Democrats (DEM) and Solidarity (SD). For many analysts, these are pacts with the devil, because they are the ones who have the largest number of members denounced for corruption.

"They are representatives of traditional politics, pragmatic, without ideology and without clear governmental platform, ready to occupy positions that allow them to stay close to power," says Peres da Silva

After having promised positions, spaces and resources in a possible government of his, Alckmin received last night from the center.This spoils of war will guarantee nearly five minutes of air on a total of 12 and a half minutes of the propaganda program free election. "Alckmin's candidacy may well reach the survival necessary to go to the ballot after the first round of the October 7 elections," Calmon said.

At the center would also be the Brazilian Democratic Movement ( MDB), President Michel Temer, but for the moment he insists to go ahead with his own candidate, the former Minister of Economy Henrique Meirelles, although the His polls place him with only 1% intent to vote for Temer's unpopularity. If his candidacy was wrecked, the MDB would bow down to Alckmin

The center's decision was a blow to the leftist Gomes, who hoped to announce this key support yesterday at the PDT congress. Fearful of being isolated, he has already given clear signals to the PT that he would be ready to seal some kind of agreement from the left forces. "Brazil will never be a country at peace until comrade Lula regains his freedom." by extending an olive branch to the former president, of which he was Minister of National Integration (2003-2006).