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In his first estimate for 2019, published in the July Monthly Report, figures from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 100.3 mbd of oil demand the planet, relative to the average of 98.85 mbd planned for 2018.
The organization, which according to the document opened its beaks in June by increasing its combined pumping of 173 400 bd (to 32.32 mbj total) compared to May , warns of several factors of uncertainty they can change the landscape, like the current tensions on import tariffs.
The document refers to the "tariff war" triggered after the United States imposed high tariffs on imports of products from China, Europe and other countries. , which reacted in turn with similar measures
For the moment, "the resurgence of trade barriers has had only a minor impact on the world economy" and the above-mentioned forecasts for 2019 depart The report explains: "There will be no significant increase in commercial rates and current disputes will soon be resolved," the report says.
But, add OPEC analysts, on the contrary there is escalating tariff war can 'negatively affect investment, capital flows and consumer spending, with an additional negative effect 'on the demand for energy.
Whatever it is, with the optimism of being avoided point, the OPEC predicts that annual consumption of black gold will increase by 1.45 mbj in 2019 , a little more moderate than the figure of 1.65 mbd (or 1.7%) calculated for this year.
] These figures are based on expectations of global economic growth of 3.8% in 2018 and 3.6% in 2019.
To meet the increased demand, the world will have, according to l & # 39; OPEC, about 2 mbd additional this year and another 2.1 mbd next, all coming from outside OPEC, mainly from the United States, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and the United States. # 39; Australia.
"These forecasts suggest that demand for OPEC crude oil will average 32.2 mbd in 2019," lower than 32.9 mbd. 2018, says the report after clarifying that these calculations include the production of Congo, a country that joined the organization as a fifteenth member on 22 June.
Therefore, if the global economy behaves better than expected the OPEC will continue to have enough supply to support the stability of the market, "the paper says.
Fear of a tight offer, fueled by the fall of Venezuelan pumping. supplies from Libya and Angola, and fears of a reduction in Iran's oil exports as a result of new US sanctions against Tehran, have pushed up oil prices.
The OPEC reference quoted last Tuesday at 76.34 dollars a barrel, close to the peak reached 22 May, of 77,19 dollars, its highest value since November 2014.
OPEC, Russia and other eight Allied producers favored the increase through a sharp reduction in their extractions that came into effect on January 1, 2017 and was later higher than the originally planned reduction of 1.8 mbd.
At its last meeting, held on June 22-23 in Vienna, the group of 25 countries agreed to increase the production of one million bd to comply "one hundred percent" with the pact .
The figures published in today's report reveal that only Saudi Arabia has already increased in June to 10.42 mbj, or 405 400 bb more than the previous month [19659016] the Wahhabi Kingdom, the world's largest oil exporter, with other partners such as the United Arab Emirates or Qatar, more than offsetting the setbacks in the old pull-ups from other member countries , such as Libya (-254,300 b / d), Angola (-88,000 b / d), Venezuela (-47,500 b / d) or Iran (-22,700 b / d) / j).
EFE / OS
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