[ad_1]
Trump responded that he was "prepared for everything" but that "I do not think we are going to have a recession".
Speaking to reporters before boarding Air Force One in New Jersey, Trump pointed out that Walmart's strong second quarter results reflected healthy consumer spending. Then he said, "And most economists say, Phil, we 're not going to have a recession – most of them say we' re not going to have a recession.
The facts first: We do not have data on what each economist thinks. However, eminent bank economists have warned this month about a significant risk of recession and a survey of business economists, mainly conducted in July, found that 74% thought there would be a recession by 2021.
The United States continues to experience the longest unbroken economic expansion in its history. no one knows for sure if or when a recession could strike. And since we do not have complete data on economists' opinions, we can not declare Trump's claims about "most" to be false.
But several economists have said this month that the possibility of a recession is real and growing.
Fears of recession have intensified since early August. During this month, the chances of a quick trade deal with China appear to be reduced, several major countries have reported poor growth, stock markets have retreated and the curve of US bond yields have been (briefly) reversed for the first time since the beginning of the year. recession year of 2007. (Here is an explanation of curve inversions.)
Last week, Michelle Meyer, director of the US economy at Bank of America, said in a note to her clients: "Our official model predicts a probability of recession over the next 12 months with a rate of 40 percent. about 20%, but our subjective appeal based on a host of data and events leads us to believe that it is closer to one chance in three. "
"Fears that the trade war will trigger a recession are growing," said Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius in his own post last week.
Bruce Kasman, chief economist of JPMorgan Chase, told Bloomberg this week that there was 40% to 45% chance of a recession over the next 12 months.
It is important to note that others have seemed more optimistic – notably Goldman Sachs' chief executive, David Solomon, who told CNN at an interview last week: "I think that's a good thing. in the end, the underlying economy, as we discussed, continues to agree, and I think the chances of a short-term recession are still relatively small. " we have to watch what happens with the rates. "
Nevertheless, 74% of economists who responded to a new survey by the National Association for Business Economics said they thought there would be a recession by the end of 2021.
The NABE survey, conducted from July 14 to August 1, revealed that 2% of the 226 economists who responded to the survey were expecting a recession to begin this year. 38% expect it to start in 2020. Thirty-four percent expected a recession to begin in 2021, while 14% said it would start over than 2021. Another 12% did not express an opinion.
Prudence is justified. Most investigations took place before the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on July 31. NABE simply distributes the survey to 1,780 members of the organization, regardless of their level of experience or position, and then records the responses of the people involved.
But we can say with certainty that a significant number of economists are not as optimistic about the chances of recession as Trump has let it look.
[ad_2]
Source link
