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Villanova vs North Texas odds
Despite the loss of Villanova’s top player to Collin Gillespie, the Wildcats moved past the hip underdog of Winthrop.
Justin Moore’s health was paramount after suffering an ankle injury at the end of the regular season. Moore scored 15 points in 37 minutes as Villanova limited Winthrop to 36 percent shooting from the field.
North Texas pulled off the unlikely surprise over Purdue in overtime. The Mean Green outscored the Boilermakers, 17-8, in the extra period and capped the game with an 11-0 run.
Despite 20 offensive rebounds, the Boilermakers shot only 41% of the 2-point range. Purdue was just as cold from the perimeter.
North Texas remained consistent in their hot shots from the outside, hitting 9 of 21 shots from long range. This is Head Coach Grant McCasland’s first NCAA tournament and North Texas’ first second-round game in program history.
When North Texas has the ball
The Mean Green likes a slow pace, ranking 327th in tempo adjusted on offense.
North Texas is 26th in the country with a 3-point shooting percentage and has the highest long-range point distribution. The key player to watch is Javion Hamlet, as the senior is the domestic top 100 in terms of assist rate and free shooting percentage.
Zachary Simmons might be the player to target in props, as Villanova doesn’t have a real rim protector.
While North Texas has one of the best numbers of effective field goals in the country, the Mean Greens don’t reach the free throw line very often. They rank 283rd for free throw rate, but have a decent charity strip shooting percentage of 74%.
McCasland’s squad must continue to fire from the outside to survive and advance.
When Villanova has the ball
The Wildcats are looking for an additional offensive identity in the post-Gillespie world.
Four players scored in double digits against Winthrop, but a sagging 3-point percentage and free throws persist. The inside offense didn’t disappoint, with Jeremiah Robinson-Earl leading all scorers.
Feeding the post was head coach Jay Wright’s strategy, and that will continue against a North Texas team that ranks 155th in average height.
Villanova finished the season with a strong distribution of points coming from beyond the arc, while Jermaine Samuels and Caleb Daniels could continue to have more attempts in the tweaked offense.
Villanova are the best team in the country when it comes to offensive turnovers, as evidenced by Winthrop recording no interceptions or blockages..
Bet analysis and selection
Villanova is 267th in defensive steal rate, making it a Hamlet game can have maximum effectiveness.
There should be no problem for the Mean Green offense to execute the slow tempo over half a court and look for a 3 point clean shot. North Texas was scorching from the outside against Purdue, and that should continue against the Wildcats.
Villanova is 242nd of the season in defense against 3-pointers and 328th in blocks. That will equate to a high number in the shot quality department for North Texas.
As Villanova continues to hit the high post with Robinson-Earl, the Mean Green have some faults to give with Abu Ousmane in relief from Simmons.
North Texas is 13th in 2-point defense, which creates problems for a Villanova side that will lean on the inside following Gillespie’s injury.
North Texas will keep this one close in its attempt to make its very first Sweet 16.
Take: North Texas +6.5 (Play to +6).
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