Volkswagen employees in Tennessee could help determine the future of United Auto Workers

More than 1,700 hourly workers at Volkswagen (VLKAF) The Chattanooga, Tennessee plant will vote Wednesday, Thursday or Friday to determine if it wants the union to represent them. The union lost a similar vote five years ago.

A victory for the union would be historic. Foreign manufacturers, such as VW and Toyota (TM), owns 31 plants and produces nearly half of the cars built in the United States. None of these foreign-funded factories have ever been unionized. Workers are generally paid less than those represented by the UAW.

The Volkswagen plant would strengthen the weakened membership of the UAW. It accounted for more than a million people in auto assembly plants in the 1980s, but only 155,000 today. Factory closures, automation, the transfer of production to Mexico and the rise of foreign companies have had adverse consequences.

"It's important for the UAW to recruit one of the factories to rebuild its workforce as well as its weight," said Michelle Krebs, senior analyst at Cox Automotive. "But I'm not optimistic, it will happen."

The ability of the "UAW" to set industry wages is decreasing, "said Kristen Dziczek, vice president of industry, labor and the economy of the Center for Automotive Research. "When Detroit automakers lose a share, the UAW loses one."

According to the UAW, the average Volkswagen factory worker earns about $ 21 an hour, compared with $ 28 an hour in a unionized auto plant. Volkswagen said the annual compensation, including overtime and bonuses, for the Chattanooga plant averaged $ 54,700 last year.

"We are among the highest paid employers in the region," the company said in a statement.

Krebs said the gap between unionized and non-union factories is narrowing. Ten years ago, the union made concessions to help GM, Ford and Chrysler stay alive in the face of cheaper competition from foreign manufacturers. And he never fully recovered. Implanting in a transplant plant would give an advantage to the UAW.

"If all the factories were represented by the UAW, they would have more power over the car manufacturers," she said. But this has not been the case for the US auto industry since the early 1980s, when transplants began to open.

The VW factory in Chattanooga seems to be one of the best opportunities for the UAW to win a vote. A member of the German Union of Automobile Workers sits on the VW Board of Directors. More than 100 VW factories worldwide employ workers represented by a union – all over China and at the Chattanooga factory.

"The Chattanooga workers deserve this vote," said UAW spokesman Brian Rothenberg.

In the last vote in Chattanooga five years ago, the union went bankrupt, receiving the support of 47% of employees who voted. Some Republican politicians in Tennessee, a state known for its harsh anti-union policies, said VW had been paying too much attention to workers. After this vote, the UAW congratulated the company for trying to "create a climate of freedom to make a decision".

But this time, both sides have faced each other much more. Each party has filed a complaint with the National Labor Relations Board, which will oversee this vote.

Most foreign-owned auto plants are located in the South, where the number of union members is much lower than in the Midwest, where most of the unionized factories of the Detroit automakers are located. It also means that the UAW is facing a tough battle even if it wins the vote at VW.

"I do not know if that necessarily means that it's easy to convince workers with anyone," Dziczek said. "It would be a big win, but not enough."