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Republican Mike Garcia of Santa Clarita barely won re-election in a district that rejected President Trump and voted for Democrat Joe Biden. Still, the congressman voted last week to protect Trump from impeachment.
How will Garcia’s anti-impeachment stance play with constituents in the district when the former Navy fighter pilot is re-elected in 2022?
No one can see that far, but it’s hard to imagine that it will help them. It will probably hurt.
In contrast, Representative David Valadao of Hanford in the San Joaquin Valley voted to impeach Trump for inciting insurgency from his supporters who stormed the U.S. Capitol to block certification of Biden’s victory. Valadao was one of 10 members of the Republican House to resist the president and the only one from California.
Chances are it will help the dairy farmer’s reelection bid next year in a highly competitive district.
Garcia’s 25th District, which covers the Antelope and Simi Valleys, voted for Biden by a 10 percentage point margin, according to the non-partisan California Target Book, which tracks congressional and legislative races. But Garcia won by very slim 333 votes out of nearly 339,000.
The losing Democrat was former state congresswoman Christy Smith. She initially lost to Garcia last spring in a special election to fill a vacancy created by the resignation of Democrat Katie Hill. Smith intends to challenge Garcia again next year.
The competitive district won in Democratic voter registration. In November, Democrats outnumber Republicans by 7.5 percentage points.
So why did Garcia vote to protect a president who was rejected by his voters in November?
“I don’t understand the benefits,” said Darry Sragow, a former Democratic strategist who publishes the California Target Book. “It’s hard to imagine Donald Trump emerging as a hero and justified.
“You could write the TV commercial in five minutes: footage of the Capitol riot, let’s mention the deceased Capitol cop. “And even after that, a member of Congress voted to support the insurgency. You don’t even have to mention Donald Trump.
It would force Garcia to spend valuable campaign time and money denying that he was supporting an insurgency.
Garcia’s explanation for his vote in the House was as follows: “With only a few days in the Trump administration, the vote to impeach the president is nothing more than a political theater that risks dividing us further. a time when we need to come together. .
“I urge my colleagues on both sides of the aisle to stop playing political games.”
Too bad Garcia and his colleagues – and the President – didn’t try to “come together” years ago.
The 21st district of Valadao in the agricultural belt is politically similar to Garcia’s, voting for Biden by a margin of almost 11 percentage points. But voters narrowly picked Valadao over Democratic incumbent TJ Cox by less than a point. Democrats hold a 16 percentage point advantage in voter registration.
“The only Californian Republican who understood [on impeachment] is Valadao, ”Sragow says.
Valadao explained it this way: “President Trump has been, without question, a driving force in the catastrophic events … by encouraging masses of rioters to incite violence against elected officials, staff and our people. representative democracy …
“I have to follow my instincts and vote my conscience. [Trump’s] inciting rhetoric was anti-American, heinous, and absolutely ungodly. It is time to put the country above politics.
It’s laudatory. But let’s be honest: political calculations determine most political decisions.
Valadao, unlike Garcia, knows the pain of losing an election to Congress. In 2018, an anti-Trump blue wave swept through seven members of the California Republican House, including Valadao. Cox beat him then. And in their comeback fight, Valadao knocked out Cox.
As a retired senior legislative adviser reminded me: “Your position depends on your position.”
Whether you’re in a Republican caucus – or a Democratic caucus – your stance on a major issue will largely depend on the consensus of your party colleagues. And the consensus is usually shaped by the party leader.
But often the leader follows the caucus. Minority House Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) has been a Trump puppet for four years and his anti-impeachment stance came as no surprise. But it is likely that he has led his fellow Conservatives in the direction they insist on going.
“McCarthy has to go with the caucus,” Sragow says. “He wants to keep his job and one day become a speaker. He did not have a choice. He’s a very smart guy. He tempered his comments.
In the House impeachment debate, McCarthy finally began to withdraw from Trump, acknowledging that “the president bears the responsibility of [the] attack on Congress by rioters.
But “an impeachment vote will further divide the nation,” he argued. McCarthy proposed a censure resolution instead.
It is a bit late to express your concern about a divided nation. And rather than a slap on the wrist, Trump was to be kicked for ruining America’s proud tradition of peaceful transfer of power.
Representative Young Kim from Fullerton is another new member of the Republican House who could be hurt by her anti-impeachment vote. She represents the competition 39e District, where Biden won by 10 percentage points. She beat a starter by just 1.2 points.
There is a joker in all of this. Each district will be redesigned before next year’s elections. But the remapping likely won’t help Republicans as their numbers have plummeted since the last reorganization ten years ago.
“The Republicans who won the Democrats’ back seats and opposed impeachment were playing with fire,” Sragow says.
Whether it burns again next year will depend a lot on Trump’s behavior.
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