Warren leads Biden in the New Hampshire poll

2020 elections

A series of recent polls show that Joe Biden and Warren are separating from the pack.

A new poll conducted since the last Democratic presidential primary debate shows that Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden are separating from the group – including Bernie Sanders – in three key early voting states.

A poll conducted by the University of Monmouth in New Hampshire and released on Tuesday gives Warren a 2-point lead over Biden, between 27% and 25%, which is well below the margin of error of the survey plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

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Sanders, who beat Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire in 2016 with 61% of the vote, is far behind, with only 12%. He is followed closely by Pete Buttigieg with 10%. Kamala Harris, of California, is fifth with only 3%.

The results are very similar to last week's Iowa Des Moines Register / CNN / Mediacom survey, which also indicated that Warren was just ahead of Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg, far behind the two leaders.

In addition, a poll published in Nevada by the USA Today / Reno Gazette-Journal newspaper in Nevada, also released Tuesday, shows that Biden (23%) and Warren (19%) are at the top of the caucus rankings in that state. , with Sanders (14%) leading the standings. two. Nevada follows Iowa and New Hampshire in the voting order next February.

Taken together, the new poll indicates that Warren has consolidated her status as Biden's main rival, the main candidate in almost all national polls. In addition, Warren's strong position in Iowa and New Hampshire suggests that the Massachusetts Senator appointed for a second term is well placed in the first two states, which could give a positive impetus to her candidacy across the country. country.

Unlike Biden and Sanders, Warren's polls have increased in recent months. It has jumped 19 points since the last survey in New Hampshire in Monmouth in May. Other recent polls in New Hampshire have described a competitive three-way race between Warren, Biden and Sanders.

"Warren continues to look stronger with each new ballot," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Poll Institute, in a press release accompanying the results of the poll. survey in New Hampshire. "She seems to be gaining support across the spectrum, with gains coming from Biden and Sanders."

The wave of Warren's polls in the early states coincides with a slight rise in his personal favorability, while his rivals saw their negatives increase. In the Monmouth New Hampshire poll, Warren is the most popular candidate, with nearly three in four Democratic primary voters, or 74 per cent, saying they favorably consider it – an 11-point increase over the survey. May school. Biden's favorable rating is down 14 points from May, from 80% to 66% now, and Sanders by 10 points, from 73% to 63% now.

Similarly, Warren got the best favorable ratings (75%) in the Iowa poll, ahead of Biden (67%) and Sanders (59%).

Buttigieg, the fourth-place candidate in the Iowa and New Hampshire surveys, also scored favorably and performs better in these two states than in national polls.

Warren goes up even as voters say they want a well-armed candidate to defeat President Donald Trump in November, contradicting concerns about his eligibility. In the Monmouth poll in New Hampshire, nearly half of the Democratic primary voters said their prime candidate was both the one with whom they were most in agreement – and the one with the best chances to beat Trump. Of these voters, 35% support Biden and 34% support Warren.

In the Suffolk poll in Nevada, a majority of 58% of caucus supporters said that the most important thing for Democrats is to nominate a candidate who can beat Trump, while 38% believe it is paramount that the Democrats designate a candidate who reflects their priorities. and values. But Warren still wins a significant share of voters, 22%, focused on eligibility, just behind the 28% of Biden.

David Paleologos, director of the political research center at Suffolk University in Boston, called Warren's strong second place in Nevada, "an important inflection point" in the race. "If you add that to its growing strength in Iowa and New Hampshire, you can imagine how the field could win quickly in Super Tuesday," he said.

The first three polls published in recent days show that few candidates outside the top four or five are gaining much popularity. Harris ranks fourth in Nevada, according to the Suffolk poll, but with only 4%. Buttigieg, Andrew Yang and Tom Steyer were tied for fifth place with 3%.

The Monmouth poll in New Hampshire shows a five-way tie for fifth place, with Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Tulsi Gabbard, Steyer and Yang at 2%.

The two percent of Gabbard will make it the 12th candidate to qualify for the Democratic debate to be held next month in Westerville, Ohio, according to POLITICO calculations. This could force the organizers to split the group of candidates between two evenings, after just one night for the third debate that took place earlier this month.

The Monmouth poll in New Hampshire was held from September 17 to 21 and involved 401 presumably Democratic primary voters. The Suffolk poll in Nevada was held from September 19 to 23 and interviewed 500 people likely to attend the caucus, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.