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A large number of polls in recent days indicate that the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination of 2020 is now a clash with two candidates between former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren , Senator Vermont, Bernie Sanders, slipping to third place.
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Warren – the populist senator who has put forward a progressive policy proposal after the other – stands at 27% of Democrat and Independent voters who have a Democratic position in a poll. Quinnipiac University released Wednesday morning, the former vice president by ordering 25%. Warren's advantage on two points lies well within the margin of error of the investigation.
Warren has risen 8 percentage points since Quinnipiac's last national survey, which took place late last month. Biden – long regarded as the favorite of the race – lost seven points.
Sanders, the long-time independent populist MP who makes his second consecutive White House candidacy, is 16 percent in the new poll, virtually unchanged from last month.
"Following two-digit Biden since March in the Democratic nomination race, Warren is grabbing Biden," said Tim Malloy, survey analyst at Quinnipiac University. "We now have a race with two top candidates and they leave the rest of the pack behind."
Going beyond the poll numbers, Malloy noted that if you "dig a little further … the reasons for Warren's rise become clearer. It generates a lot of enthusiasm as a potential candidate. On top of that, half of the Democrats want a presidential candidate in favor of big changes, even if it means that things are more difficult along the way. "
The mayor of South Bend, in Indiana, Pete Buttigieg, stands at 7% in the new Quinnipiac poll, Senator Kamala Harris of California at 3%. All others in the field of registration of Democratic presidential candidates registered at 2% or less.
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Many political analysts downplay the results of national polls, noting that the presidential nomination race is a battle for states and their party nominating convention delegates. But Quinnipiac's findings follow the same conclusions from polls published in the past two days in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, the first three states to vote in the primary calendar and caucus nominations.
Warren stands at 27 percent of Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire's presidency in a poll released Tuesday by Monmouth University, with Biden at 25 percent. Warren's two-point edge is well within the sampling error of this survey. Sanders is third in the poll, at 12%.
A few hours after the publication of the Monmouth poll in New Hampshire, a new poll in Nevada, which holds its caucus following the New Hampshire primary, also indicates a close clash between Biden and Warren.
A USA Today poll / Suffolk University rated Biden at 23%, Warren at 19% and Sanders at 14%.
And in Iowa, a Des Moines Register / CNN / Mediacom survey released this weekend indicated Warren at 22%, Biden at 20% and Sanders at third at 11%. The Des Moines registry investigations have long been considered the gold standard for polls in Iowa.
The polls come as Warren's campaign announced on Tuesday that it would spend $ 10 million to broadcast digital and television commercials over the coming months in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and New York. South Carolina, who voted in fourth position. calendar and holds the first southern primary.
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The release of these new live telephone polls has come to just over four months of the first votes in Iowa. But that can be an eternity in campaign politics.
Warren continues to downplay the importance of his hike in polls, telling reporters a few days ago, "I do not do polls. We are still a few months away from Iowa caucuses and the first primary elections. "
The pollsters are in agreement. Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Survey Institute, said that "it is important to keep in mind that the race is still very unstable."
The Quinnipiac University poll took place from September 19 to 23, with 1,337 registered voters in the country, including 561 independent Democratic Democrats polled by telephone. The sampling error for the survey on Democratic candidacy issues is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
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