Warren's rise shakes the Democratic field

A new poll showing Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenOvernight Health Care – Presented by the Better Medicare Alliance – Family Planning Providers Call on Court to Block Trump's Abortion Rule | Warren under pressure to pay "Medicare for all" | Juul would face a criminal investigation The pressure on Pelosi to dismiss Trump grows Democrats say the battle with Trump could help Biden MORE (D-Mass.) Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenTrump ordered the administration to suspend any military aid to Ukraine a few days before the convening of the president: more Democrats are threatening disqualification as a result of negotiations between Trump and Ukraine. The pen of Seven Democrats Freshman urged Congress to remove Trump if new allegations were true MORE in Iowa upset the battle for the Democratic nomination – and insiders across the party play what all of this means.

Warren currently holds 22% of Biden's 20% support, according to the well-respected Des Moines Register – CNN – Mediacom poll, released Saturday night. Both are far from the rest of the pack, with Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersOvernight Health Care – Presented by Better Medicare Alliance – Family Planning Providers Call on Court to Block Trump's Abortion Rule | Warren under pressure to pay "Medicare for all" | Juul apparently under criminal investigation Democratic candidates continue to find new ways to throw our money. Sanders opposes his fashion to that of Trump: "In fact, it's Kohl" PLUS (I-Vt.) In third place with 11% support.

The Biden team had already downplayed the Hawkeye State's expectations before the poll was released. An unidentified senior advisor told reporters earlier this month that the former vice president did not need to win the state, which will hold his caucus on Feb. 3.

But a defeat in the first match would be a serious problem for Biden, especially because it would reinforce the feeling that he is an exceptionally weak runner.

Due to the nature of the main schedule, it is also unlikely that the former vice president can straighten his boat immediately. The next contest will be held in New Hampshire, near Warren (Massachusetts) and Sanders (Vermont).

In such a scenario, Biden would probably turn to South Carolina, the fourth contest, as a potential firewall, given his power against African-American voters and the centrality of these voters in the outcome of the State of Palmetto.

An ally of Biden seemed to set the stage for such a result on Monday, telling The Hill that "his coalition can not be shown in predominantly white states".

The ally also insisted, however, on the fact that "there will always be an alternative candidate, but that we feel good where we are."

Another ally concluded: "It will be a battle for the delegates and we feel good about what we have been in the first states."

Others who are not aligned with any campaign think the situation is darker for Biden.

Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said Biden "was already skating on thin ice as she is."

"The defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire, which are the two battlegrounds of next fall, would highlight issues related to eligibility, which is his main selling point. Biden can not afford to play long game losses in the first two states could destroy the entire fragile structure, "said Bannon.

For Biden, it is also to be feared that a defeat in Iowa will alter the racing's silhouette in an instant. There are certainly some inaccurate precedents for such a scenario.

When then-Sen. Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaTrump mocks Romney with a video contrasting with their presidential offers. Trump is right to counter Iranian terror – veterans of combat have seen its effects The anger of voters could mean the end for Trump and Biden MORE (D-Ill.) Then beat-Sen. Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonTrump mocks Romney with a video contrasting with his presidential offers. An alert launcher feeds the accusation speech Let's make a reality: Democrats were the first to involve Ukraine in US elections MORE (DN.Y.) In Iowa in 2008, it was a shock that her campaign never really recovered – and she persuaded black voters that Obama was eligible, even in states that seemed demographically difficult. Although Clinton returned to win a surprise victory in New Hampshire, Obama beat him in South Carolina.

Referring to the position of the Biden campaign in this election cycle, Democratic strategist Eddie Vale said: "If they get crushed at once [Iowa and New Hampshire]As we saw in the primaries on both sides of the aisle, enthusiasm and polls can swing rapidly, as well as media attention, and the establishment of firewall states like those candidates was no longer a viable strategy. "

Warren can seize the favorable history of Iowa with the insurgent candidates, at least recently.

In addition to Obama's victory in 2008, Sanders was about to defeat Clinton in 2016. If the Vermont senator collapsed this time – plausible but unsecured outcome – Warren could become the door left-wing against the more institutional-friendly group Biden. In caucuses that tend to attract the party's most engaged activists, it's a good place to be.

Still, positioning oneself against party formation is not a guarantee of success, even in Iowa.

In 2004, Vermont's former governor, Howard Dean, sparked a huge stir among progressive youth – to then find himself in a third place in Iowa, behind Sen. John KerryJohn Forbes Kerry Krystal Ball: The Democrats are about to name Warren, they are defeated by Trump Mika Brzezinski and John Kerry: Why would not you run in the presidential election "during this crucial time"? Kerry: "absolute shock" after the debate between Trump and Biden with the Ukrainian leader (D-Mass.), The winner and the prospective candidate, as well as Sen-then. John Edwards (D-N.C.).

Back in 2000, vice president Al GoreAlbert (Al) Arnold GoreKrystal Ball: Democrats on track to name Warren, lost to Trump Voter anger could sound the knell of Trump and Biden Judd Gregg: The chance of a political life MORE Winner of progressive challenger Bill Bradley in Iowa by almost 30 points.

"The secret, whether it is progressive or centrist, is whether a candidate is able to rally his respective strengths," said David Yepsen, who has covered the presidential campaigns in the state for several decades with the Des Moines register. "Warren could win if the moderates part with the other candidates or Biden could win if Warren and Sanders broke away from progressive."

Yepsen also noted that Warren had early acquired a leading position in the state, which is good, but that will inevitably bring more clear attacks from his rivals. Until now, in televised debates, Warren has neither faced nor launched any particularly aggressive throws.

"The goal here is to reach the top at the right time," Yepsen said. "The disadvantage for Warren is that she will be monitored more."

But Warren also has another advantage, at least for the moment, as she began to organize early in the state. Biden is now making more effort in this department, according to Pat Rynard, who runs the IowaStartingLine political website.

"Warren certainly had a long lead, but Biden seems to have caught up pretty much in recent months," Rynard said.

Nevertheless, he added that Warren had attracted larger crowds to the state and made a name for himself.

"Iowa is a place where, if you spend your time organizing and building a good campaign, you can become the favorite. Elizabeth Warren combines her star power with a good campaign organization, which puts her in an excellent position, "he said.

At more than four months of experts, experts agree that it is too early to make reliable forecasts. But the battle for Iowa is heating up day by day.

"I do not think anyone takes one or the other of the states, especially the first states, for granted," said the Biden's first ally. "I think the last two presidential races have taught us."