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Very few people could see the Portland Trail Blazers go to the finals of the conference, but here they are and they will try their luck at the champions. Portland and Golden State have split their season series 2-2, and of course, this is going to be a clash between the league's two best backcourts. But there's a lot more depth in this Blazers team and a lot more in this series, especially with Kevin Durant up to maybe the fourth or even the fifth game.
Here are five things to watch for in the final phase of the Western Conference.
Kevin Durant's absence
This is obviously the biggest story that weighs on this series right now. The Warriors went through the Rockets and made it clear that they were perhaps still the best basketball team without him, but they are clearly not as good as they are with him. Not at this point. The question is: how long will Durant be out?
Dr. Alan Beyer, orthopedic surgeon and medical director of the Hoag Orthopedic Institute in Newport Beach, Calif., Told CBS Sports that Durant's calf strain would likely prevent him from staying at least two weeks. It's between Game 4 and Game 5 of this series. Even though Durant is pushing back to the point where the streak passes in Game 3 in Portland, the Blazers have a real chance to get one of the top two in Oakland and take the field advantage.
Battle behind the scenes
It's as good as it goes in the backcourt. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson vs. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. What will be interesting is how they defend each other. Lillard had the Curry treatment against Denver, doubled and trapped at 30 feet and over, but the Warriors do not tend to overestimate their defense in the name of a player's stoppage. They will change and let the guys keep even James Harden one against one. Thompson is going to see his time on Lillard and McCollum, and he's not a guy who tends to ask or need a lot of help. Lillard and McCollum drool for face-to-face coverage. It will be interesting.
On the other hand, Durant's absence gives the Blazers an opportunity to do what Houston did in Match 6 and double up and blitz Curry without the fear of being burned at the back. . Portland tends to be a relatively conservative defensive team whose priority is not to give up easy buckets, and its rim protection is not the same without Jusuf Nurkic. Letting the Warriors play against the 4-on-3 traps could be a problem. It will be a chess match that will likely depend on how effectively Curry fires the ball and how wide he kills Blazers with the help of switches.
In the end, these two backcourts tend to trigger fireworks when they face each other. Neither one nor the other is really built to stop the other in terms of length on the perimeter, especially without Durant on the side of the Warriors. These four guys can and will probably get the shots they want on each other. What a test of strength in terms of scoring to put in place.
Warriors out of their depth?
The Blazers have a lot of players who play a lot for them right now, and if you'd have to choose, I'd say that they definitely have the best bench, especially with Durant and Andre Iguodala being pushed into the starting training. Give the Warriors' bench all the credit for being part of the win in Game 6 against Houston, but only one game with the adrenaline of proving that everyone is wrong without Durant is different from maybe more of half of a series. Do you really trust Quinn Cook, Alfonzo McKinnie, Shaun Livingston and Jonas Jerebko to go out and give you a big production during the conference finale?
On the other side, the Blazers have a ton of guys who feel like you can absolutely trust their bench right now. We will have to see about Rodney Hood, who hyperextended his knee during the win against Denver in Game 7, and it's huge because Hood has been great. Even outside of him, Zach Collins plays like a beast, Evan Turner played many huge games in the seventh game. Seth Curry is the factor X shooter, Moe Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu, depending on the initial training Terry Stotts chooses to go with, are solid options depending on the matches and if they are in a good rhythm.
The Blazers, with an optional hood, can and will go up to 10 deep with Meyers Leonard even running. The warriors will need more than 40 minutes of all their players until Durant returns, and even the players in reverse rotation will have to play a bit higher than their water level. The Warriors undoubtedly have the best possible talent, but the depth is something that Portland can be happy to reach the first match.
Stephen Curry is in trouble
I said it before the sixth game against Houston, I say it now, and I will continue to say it until it proves that it's not a problem: Steph Curry must stay out of trouble, and until now, there is little evidence that he is able to do that. He reaches. He slaps. He gets too aggressive trying to compete in situations where he has almost nothing to gain and, worse yet, he does not seem to understand the problem. He says he's doing it. But he does not play as he does. Even though he was the victim of a foul of the game, he does not change the way he plays.
He must be willing to give up the baskets, if that is what it is, in exchange for saving the mistakes. He can not try to help lazy drivers by slapping himself. The fact that the Warriors withdrew from match 6 against Houston while Curry had no more points in the first period because he was on the sidelines for long periods with three fouls should not be theirs give confidence. it should worry them a lot because they can not get through this series with Durant out and Curry on the bench.
This is a major problem because Portland, like the Rockets, will test Curry as much as possible. Lillard and McCollum are one-on-one beasts. Curry personally takes these meetings and wants to prove his defensive and difficult merits. Forget all that. He needs to be in the game, period. Pride will only cause him problems in this series.
Additional possessions
Behind the pomp of these two backcourts and the dam of 3 points of which we will all be witnesses, the bouncing battle will play a huge role in this series. On the offensive side, the Blazers recovered 31.5% of offensive rebounds at their disposal, which represents the second best score in the playoffs and the best mark of the remaining four teams. Meanwhile, the Warriors capture 30.4% of the offensive rebounds available to them, making it the fifth-highest scoring team in the playoffs and the second-highest in Portland among the four teams still alive.
So, both teams break down the offensive glass hard and effectively, and being extremely dangerous, these two possessions are gigantic. And there will be additional possessions, not only because both teams have crushed the offensive glass, but also because none of them are particularly effective in protecting the defensive glass. In the playoffs, the Warriors are ranked 13th in defensive rebound percentage. The Blazers are ranked 14th. Based on the number of defensive rebounds they get from the number of rebounds available to them, they are two of the four worst defensive rebound teams in the playoffs, with only Brooklyn and Houston at worst.
In summary, the two teams crush hard the offensive glass and neither team cleans the boards very well on the other end. Additional possessions will be vital. The good news for the Blazers is that the Warriors do not have a rebounder like Nikola Jokic. Enes Kanter will have an easier pass in this series against Kevon Looney and Andrew Bogut, although the Warriors will certainly play small with Draymond Green at five. When that happens, we will have to see how Terry Stotts will make the difference. If it stays big with Kanter, the Blazer can really go to work on the offensive glass. Even though it is only Zach Collins, it is also very difficult.
In the end, the Blazers are not as good as the Warriors. But if they have a few more possessions at every game, then a few more shots, they can definitely get hot. The offensive glass and its depth – these are two areas in which they can really take over the champions.
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