We will need COVID-19 booster doses by winter as protection wanes

• Moderna expects people to need to receive a third dose of its COVID-19 vaccine before this winter.
• At the end of eight months, Moderna executives said the vaccine’s protection was waning.
• “We think a booster will likely be needed this fall,” Moderna President Stephen Hoge said.

Biotech company Moderna said Thursday that it expects a third dose of its COVID-19 vaccine to be needed before winter, citing the prospect that protection from the shot wears off over time.

Moderna executives provided the clearest view to date of why and when people might need to get vaccinated, speaking on an earnings conference call with analysts and Wall Street investors . Overall, the prospect of biotech suggests a long war ahead with COVID-19, even after a third booster dose.

“This is not the last round in the fight against SARS-CoV-2,” said Stephen Hoge, president of Moderna, using the official name of the virus. “We expect him to have at least a few more rounds and maybe every year we’ll just keep fighting this virus.”

In advocating for the upcoming launch of a third dose, Hoge cited research suggesting decreased immunity to the virus. The Delta variant, in particular, is able to partially evade the protection of the vaccine, resulting in more infections among fully vaccinated people.

Moderna presented data on Thursday showing a noticeable drop in antibody levels – a key part of the immune response – six to eight months after the second dose. The information has not been reviewed by outside scientists or published in a scientific journal.

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“We think a booster will likely be needed this fall, especially against the Delta variant,” Hoge said.

Read more: We got an exclusive look at Moderna Labs, where the biotech newbie is planning what comes after his successful coronavirus vaccine.

As $ 169 billion biotech develops suitable candidate vaccines to fight variants, including Delta, Hoge said the initial booster would likely be Moderna’s original vaccine formulation given halfway over the initial two injections.

Looking at lab tests from a third dose, Hoge said his initial vaccine given as a third injection would be “more than enough as a booster,” even against the Delta variant.

The Moderna vaccination is given as two injections about four weeks apart. Moderna said on Thursday that the two-dose vaccine was around 93% effective for up to six months after the initial doses.

COVID-19 vaccine maker Pfizer has advocated forcefully to roll out boosts as early as six months after the second dose. Some countries seem convinced. Israel has already started shooting some older citizens. Germany and France have announced plans to start helping the elderly and vulnerable in September.

These countries have so far ignored a call from the World Health Organization, which asks rich countries not to increase their populations given the low initial immunization rates in many low- and middle-income countries.

Dr Paul Offit, a vaccine developer who sits on the Food and Drug Administration’s Vaccine Advisory Board, told the New York Times that Moderna data does not yet support the deployment of boosters. In particular, Offit said he wanted to see data showing that the injections did not prevent serious illness.

“You want this vaccine to protect you against the type of disease that requires you to see a doctor or be hospitalized,” he told The Times. “And until you see some evidence that it’s not true, then you don’t need a booster.”

Moderna anticipates more variations, developing a versatile shot

Looking ahead to 2022 and beyond, Hoge said he expects worrying new variants to emerge.

In particular, Hoge identified five mutations concerning the beta and delta variants. Three of these mutations are in the beta variant and two in the delta variant. All five appear to help the virus partially evade vaccine protection, Hoge said.

The executive called it “logical” that these five mutations “might find a way to combine in new and potentially frightening ways.”

To prepare for this possibility, Moderna is developing so-called multivalent vaccines, or injections that can protect against several strains of the virus.

“The goal of the multivalent platform is to continue trying to stay ahead of the evolution of the virus by combining different antigens against emerging variants of concern,” Hoge said.

Moderna’s view is that the virus will eventually become endemic and persist.

“We really think the virus is here to stay for the long term,” Hoge said. “And therefore, it is going to be necessary to regularly strengthen, especially older high-risk populations, against SARS-CoV-2 in the future.”