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It’s been another tough news cycle during the pandemic, but the first full weekend in August arrives this Friday. With this comes the expected version of James Gunn The suicide squad, but how are expectations for the anti-hero sequel changing in today’s market?
The film marks the latest addition to DC Extended Universe and the brand’s second pandemic release after that of last December Wonder Woman 1984. Fans have been waiting for writer and director Gunn’s applied styles at the DC property after his huge success with the first two guardians of the galaxy films Across the Fence with Disney and Marvel, and early reception from critics suggests the filmmaker has another crowd pleaser on his hands. On Thursday morning, the movie was 95% on Rotten Tomatoes.
While die-hard graphic novel and comic book enthusiasts can’t wait to see Gunn’s semi-reboot, this entry enters a contested market with virtually no fault of his own.
Five years ago, Warner Bros. and DC released the first Suicide Squad film to a record start in August of $ 133.7 million. This came about as a result of a hugely effective marketing campaign, Will Smith in his first non-Hancock lead role in the comics, Jared Leto’s highly anticipated version of the Joker character, and Margot Robbie’s first live-action appearance as anti-villain mainstay Harley Quinn.
This 2016 film was a financial blockbuster with $ 325 million nationally and nearly $ 747 million globally at the end of its airing, but many audiences and fans disliked it. The box office legs were cut short by a mixed reception (it stands at 26% of critics and 59% of audiences), ultimately forcing the studio to reconsider the vision for the sub-franchise if it were to continue. Bringing in Gunn was certainly an inspired decision, but the question now remains as to how many casual audiences are interested in a smooth reboot of a five-year film – one without Will Smith and the Joker, no less.
Gunn has assembled a massive set of cast here, but the similar lack of power and underperformance of Harley’s own spinoff film in 2020 calls into question the type of demand for the film outside of the DC crowd. Even before the pandemic, Birds of prey opened below expectations with $ 33 million on opening weekend. Healthier word of mouth helped him reach a stronger multiple than that of 2016 Team, corn Prey still managed a modest $ 84.2 million in North America and a hair of over $ 200 million worldwide. That’s not terrible for a film with a budget of less than $ 90 million, but it’s not the runaway success that was expected.
The 2021 version of Suivshere is a different beast, however – and a beast that would have cost $ 185 million to produce and that is launched into a fractured global market. Warner’s hybrid release in theaters and on HBO Max on the same day will likely reduce box office revenue to a significant level – especially after the opening shows on Thursday night and the first full day of Friday when fans represent. a huge share of revenue. It’s not a good foot to jump when the big internationals are already going to be depressed due to the different speeds of vaccine implementation, which will be exacerbated by piracy due to the film’s immediate availability at home.
Long-term forecasts had optimistically modeled an opening weekend of between $ 35 million and $ 60 million just two weeks ago. This is no longer the case, even with strong criticism since and a coherent marketing campaign put in place by the studio. Presale activity has slowed down considerably since the first wave of fans bought tickets became available in mid-July, while discussions and online interactions on major platforms are far from the highs of the 2016 film before. its exit. Until August 4, Suicide Team is more than 75% lower than its predecessor in terms of social footprint and presale combined.
These may be inevitable trends even under normal circumstances, but concerns about the Delta variant of COVID-19 may also have some impact. It’s too early to say how exactly that is, but industry research firm NRG recently reported that consumer sentiment among moviegoers fell to 70% as of August 1 from a previous record high. 81% pandemic on July 11. Women over and under 25 remain the most cautious, but the demographics that concern this movie – men over and under 25 – also showed a slight drop in comfort levels. These are down 10% and 11% respectively.
NRG polls are still much more encouraging than they were earlier in the year, and generally comparable to the comfort level of moviegoers at the time. A quiet place II and Cruel led to encouraging Memorial Day weekend business in theaters.
Still, it’s clear that the current wave of hospitalizations due to cases of the virus spurred by the Delta variant in unvaccinated people is having an effect on short-term moviegoer comfort and box office recovery trends. That’s important to keep in mind for an R-rated sequel with less star power than its divisive predecessor, which also happens to be available for free to home streaming subscribers.
At the very least, the film should be able to overtake The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do Itthe $ 24.1million weekend as the best R-rated debut since before the March 2020 lockdowns, and possibly Space Jam: a new legend ($ 13.1 million) for Warner’s best gross opening day in the same period.
The suicide squadWe hope that s good reviews translate into some sort of endurance after an inevitably busy weekend, but otherwise it will take abnormal levels of activity after Thursday night to counter the final forecast patterns which have softened considerably. the last days.
On the conservation side, the aforementioned Delta issues apply across the board, so the maintenance patterns might be a bit wobbly. The suicide squad represents the framework’s only wide release to come, and its R rating will prevent ticket sales by a teenage audience (which has played a significant role in resuming the pandemic so far). That means very little in terms of direct competition for films that don’t target the same target audience, but conversely, the market isn’t exactly filled with all-audience and theatrical exclusive films at the moment.
Disney’s hybrid release Jungle cruise should benefit from a stronger hold than Black Widow through positive word of mouth and target family audience, although it will lose most of its premium screen footprint to Team. All eyes will be on the second weekend, of course, after Widow68% drop with the same Disney + Premier Access streaming strategy in-game.
CruiseThe drop in average ticket prices due to the loss of IMAX and PLF is the main threat to his second cadre, but otherwise, Cruelthis summer’s leg race (including a 49% drop from its first holiday-swollen weekend) suggests Cruise could stabilize relatively quickly (pending changes in Delta) after a sharp drop expected on Friday (again, due to the loss of the PLF).
The respectable start of last weekend from The green knight found itself more loaded up front on Friday than expected, so it will likely show a noticeable drop this weekend. Again, however, the positive reception among the A24 core remains a positive factor going forward ahead of PVOD film availability around August 19.
Meanwhile, Still water is expected to show the strongest hold among the three films in their sophomore year. With high audience participation in Central and Rural America, the film is likely less affected by Delta variant issues. It also posted a 4% rate from Friday to Saturday last weekend, a rare feat for large-scale releases with Thursday releases so far this summer.
Opening forecast ranges
The suicide squad
Weekend opening range: $ 25 to $ 35 million
Total domestic range: $ 60-90 million
Weekend forecast
The box office projects of the ten best films of this weekend will be decrease between 7 and 17 percent of the top ten total of $ 74.95 million last weekend.
| Movie | Distributer | 3-day weekend forecast | Indoor total projected until Sunday August 8 | Number of locations | % change since last weekend |
| The suicide squad | Photos of Warner Bros. | $ 28,000,000 | $ 28,000,000 | ~ 4000 | NEW |
| Jungle cruise | Walt disney studios | $ 14,900,000 | $ 64,300,000 | 4.310 | -57% |
| Black Widow | Disney / Marvel Studios | $ 3,900,000 | $ 174,400,000 | 3,100 | -40% |
| Old woman | Universal Images | $ 3,800,000 | $ 38,200,000 | 3 130 | -45% |
| Space Jam: a new legacy | Photos of Warner Bros. | $ 2,600,000 | 66 $ 100,000 | ~ 3,000 | -40% |
| The green knight | A24 | $ 2,500,000 | $ 12,000,000 | ~ 2,800 | -63% |
| Still water | Focus Features | $ 2,400,000 | $ 9,600,000 | 2,611 | -54% |
| Snake Eyes: GI Joe Origins | Paramount Pictures | $ 1,800,000 | $ 26,300,000 | 2,080 | -56% |
| Escape Game: Tournament of Champions | Sony Pictures / Colombia | $ 1,300,000 | $ 23,200,000 | 1,303 | -42% |
| F9: The quick saga | Universal Images | $ 1,200,000 | 171 $ 100,000 | 1,709 | -55% |
All forecasts subject to revision before first confirmation of Thursday previews or Friday estimates from studios or alternative sources.
The number of theaters is updated as confirmed by the studios.
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