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What lessons from this year’s NBA Playoffs could teams try to apply during the offseason?
For the other 29 teams, the goal is to get to where the Milwaukee Bucks did earlier this week – hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy. And while that may not be a realistic possibility next season for many teams, they will all try to get closer in the next NBA draft and free agency period, accompanied by the return of the commercial season. .
As teams chart their offseason journey, the trends we’ve seen during the playoffs can’t help but play a role, even in such an unusual playoff series as the 2021 version defined by key player injuries. Let’s take a closer look at some of these trends, which teams could apply them this summer, and if that could be a mistake.
Speed up the schedule
The most notable result of this year’s playoffs has been the success of the newcomers. The Phoenix Suns reached the NBA Finals and came in two wins from their first title in franchise history after a full decade in the lottery, while the Atlanta Hawks jumped from a record 20-47 in 2019-20, which left them far from joining the bubble until the Eastern Conference final.
In both cases, it happened after their respective reception offices accelerated the timing of the rebuilding processes by adding veterans to the young nucleus. Atlanta handled center Clint Capela by the 2020 trade deadline and stocked up on free agency last offseason, signing Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari. Of the Hawks’ best eight players in playoff minutes, only three (John Collins, Kevin Huerter and Trae Young) had played for them in 2019-20.
Phoenix made fewer additions to a young core who went 8-0 in ranking games during the NBA bubble restart of the 2019-20 season, but two important ones in All-Star Chris Paul and the starting striker Jae Crowder. Their performances and veteran leadership were both essential as the Suns surprised everyone by finishing with the second best league record and reaching the finals.
The concern is that Atlanta and Phoenix were outliers for a reason.
Teams trying to shorten their path from the lottery to playoff glory often end up hurting their long-term prospects without the same kind of short-term success. Teams that present themselves as the next Hawks or the next Suns might not benefit from the same type of injuries to opposing stars or just be as good in the first place as Atlanta and Phoenix, who were both in the league’s top three. as a winning percentage after the All-Star Break.
Still, that won’t stop teams from trying, especially with the allure of potentially playing at full capacity as we’ve seen in Atlanta and Phoenix during the playoffs. I would say the Minnesota Timberwolves and Sacramento Kings, two long-suffering teams like the Suns, are most at risk of kidding themselves into thinking they can repeat the success the Hawks and Suns have enjoyed in the playoffs.
The Charlotte Hornets and New Orleans Pelicans would be more likely to be right, given their best performances this season, but immediate victory moves would also be risky for teams with young stars.
If there’s one team that could truly replicate what Atlanta and Phoenix have done, maybe it would be the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies got a taste of the playoffs this year, winning their exit from the play-in tournament before playing a competitive five-game series with the Utah Jazz. Given the depth of their young talent – too many quality players to hold onto for the long term – the patient rebuilding of Memphis could benefit from the kind of deep trading for the stars that the Suns did for Paul.
You can win with a center – but not just any center
The 2021 playoffs were an interesting time for center position. The LA Clippers reached the Western Conference Finals in large part because of coach Ty Lue’s decision to bench traditional center Ivica Zubac in favor of five-a-side rosters with no players over 6’8. thumbs up on the ground. Those shooting-heavy units made Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert much of a spectator as the Clippers beat the Jazz twice without star Kawhi Leonard to complete their series victory.
At the same time, after the 7-footers combined to play just 22 total minutes in the 2020 final with the Heat (Bam Adebayo) and Lakers (Anthony Davis) sliding their power to the center, the final two This year’s teams have played more conventionally. . Milwaukee head coach Mike Budenholzer withstood calls from bench center Brook Lopez after struggling to defend pick-and-rolls in Game 1 of the Conference Finals and NBA Finals and has been rewarded with improved defense the rest of these series.
Meanwhile, Phoenix center Deandre Ayton has emerged as the perfect antidote for small balls: quick enough to continue defending on the perimeter but powerful enough to dominate small opponents in the paint. Ayton’s threat kept Lue from losing much of the conference final, and after a successful switch to her with Zubac sidelined midway through the series, Ayton scored 16 points and 17 cards. in Game 6 as the Suns shut down the Clippers.
Whichever team drafts USC center Evan Mobley in the top pick next week will be hoping for a similar outcome. Mobley isn’t as inward-facing as Ayton, but should have enough skill to make plays in the offsetting paint and has similar defensive versatility.
The fit is less clear for Turkish center Alperen Sengun, the only other center in the top 30 of the ESPN ranking of the 100 best draft prospects. Sengun dominated the competition in the Turkish Basketball Super League, winning MVP honors at 18, making him the most impressive prospect in the draft from a purely statistical standpoint. NBA teams need to assess whether Sengun can stay on the pitch long enough to provide this type of production at the highest levels of play.
The mid-range revenge?
Sometimes this year’s finals felt like a throwback. The Bucks and Suns combined to take 21% of their attempts between the paint and the 3-point line, the highest rate in the Finals since 2014, according to analysis of NBA Advanced Stats data.
Phoenix in particular has found joy in the midrange. The Suns were fourth in the percentage of their shots that were 2 out of the paint during the regular season and led all teams in the playoffs. However, Khris Middleton was also a successful midrange option for Milwaukee.
Against high-caliber defenses focused on eliminating high-value attempts at the edge and beyond the 3-point line, teams need to have the ability to remove the shots that these defenses are more willing to concede. According to The Athletic’s Seth Partnow, this was the first playoff series in the past 20 years in which 2-point unpainted attempts have increased in each round (and from the regular season to the first round).
Still, I think teams trying to follow the Suns’ lead might struggle to replicate their mid-term success. Yes, the two Western Conference finalists (Phoenix and the Clippers) were in the top five for percentage of shots from between the paint and the 3-point line. But so were the Orlando Magic and the San Antonio Spurs linked to the lottery. The fifth team, the Washington Wizards, reached the playoffs with a record under 0.500.
In part, it’s hard to find shooters as effective at mid-range as Suns guards Devin Booker and Paul. Paul’s 52% accuracy on the Paintless 2 ranked second among players with at least 200 attempts during the regular season, according to NBA Advanced Stats, while Booker was fifth among that group at 49%. Thanks to them, Phoenix as a team achieved a record 47% of 2 without paint. Only two other teams (the Brooklyn Nets and the Philadelphia 76ers) did better than 45% of midrange attempts.
As a result, I think mid-range shooting will remain more important to winning the playoffs than getting there in the first place.
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