What do the Flyers have in Ryan Hartman?

When yesterday afternoon, the Flyers announced that the Flyers had traded Wayne Simmonds to the Nashville Predators and they had received Ryan Hartman and a conditional fourth-round pick, the immediate reaction was not positive. Kevin Fiala, now a member of the Minnesota Wild, Eeli Tolvanen, or the first-round pick of the Predators in approaching the trade deadline, Hartman and a mid-round pick were disappointing. But one could argue that it was still a bit unrealistic to expect Simmonds' 2018-2019 to get any of the skaters back, and that Hartman's true value is similar to that of a first player late anyway.

Originally selected by the Chicago Blackhawks in the first round of the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, Hartman played about two full seasons in the AHL with the Rockford IceHogs before becoming a regular NHL player with the Blackhawks. During his rookie season, Hartman scored 19 goals, 31 points in total, and appeared in four playoff games while the Blackhawks were swept in the first round. In the middle of his second season, the Blackhawks sent him to the same team of Predators who had eliminated them from the playoffs a season before for a first-round pick, a fourth round pick and a prospect to Victor Ejdsell. Now the 24-year-old striker is heading to Philadelphia where he will be looking for a place in the top nine in the immediate future.

Appearing in 64 games with the Predators this season, Hartman has scored 10 goals and 20 points, including 18 to 5 against 5 and equal strength. In addition, at 5 against 5, Hartman threw the puck at a pace that only the Flyers strikers beat, Travis Konecny, although this was partly due to the effects of the team. The Predators are not only firing more on the puck than the Flyers, but their defenders are capturing a smaller percentage of their shots. So, it will be interesting to see if Hartman can continue to be a volume shooter in a team that usually relies on low to high gaming to generate the offensive.

164 disappointing days with Nashville

Hartman burst onto the scene with the Blackhawks during the 2016-17 season and, during his stay at Windy City, he scored roughly at the level of the second row at 5-on-5. However, after only 141 games in his NHL career, Hartman was traded to the Predators, a landing point that has never been a good way.

His 5 points on 5 points per 60 minutes went from 1.79 in one season and three quarters with the Blackhawks to just 1.39 – always better than the Simmonds rate of the last three seasons – in what can be described as an essentially complete season (84 games) with the Predators. He has nevertheless found some success in the playoffs, scoring his first two goals and recording his only assist of the series so far in the post-season 2018. This is however his culminating point in a Predators jersey because we know now that he would not finish the next season – this season – in gold and blue.

After starting the season with nearly 15 minutes per game, his average time on the ice had fallen to 11:20 in his last 27 games dating back to the end of December, a period in which he scored just one goal and had six goals. aid. It was clear that things were not working for Hartman in Nashville and that Peter Laviolette did not have much regard for him. At least no longer took place – there was a time earlier this season when Hartman played alongside Fiala and Ryan Johansen, serving as the team's best team. Outside of this short stint, Hartman never really found himself with a consistent line, playing with his most common lineman 5-on-5, Nick Bonino, only 37.86% of the time. But maybe it was for the better.

This season, Hartman has a score of 53.12%, Corsi adjusted according to the place of competition and a danger of 48,59% for Corsi, with a danger of 5 to 5, but with Bonino, he fell in the pockets 48.84% FC and 45.36% HDCF. Away from Bonino, who has been a drag on the overwhelming majority of his teammate's shooting range this season, Hartman is back a little more positive. We can not lose his minutes with Bonino, but we know first-hand what an anchor based on shooting can do for a player's results.

So yes, Hartman's stay in Nashville left something to be desired, but that does not mean he can not bounce back in Philadelphia. In addition, if we have to speculate for a second, if the Flyers found a way to put Joel Quenneville on the back of the bench next season, they would reunite Hartman with the same coach under whom he flourished for two seasons.

Will Hartman block a child?

The idea conveyed by various social media is that Hartman will block one of the future prospects of the Flyers in the near future. Here is the problem, what are the realistic prospects that it would block? Nicolas Aube-Kubel has had two really impressive seasons with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, but is his potential higher than that of a top-nine striker? Hartman has already proven it and has a little over a year and a half longer than him. Corban Knight, Phil Varone and Michael Raffl are both on the verge of losing their contract and may end up in a different organization, as well as in the case of Varone and Knight, probably back in the AHL. This frees up potentially three places for Morgan Frost, among others, to win directly from the camp.

Apart from Frost, there is no safe bet on any of the current Flyers hopefuls playing at least 250 NHL regular season and playoff games before his 25th birthday. That's what Hartman is about to accomplish when he stays healthy for the rest of the season. . Hartman will probably bring more value to the ice than the majority of Flyers prospects and certainly provide more to Claude Giroux's time than anyone they want to see written in June, unless another miracle of the lottery. This is the added benefit of adding an established NHL skater instead of a late first-round pick in the first round; this helps the team to win next season.

In addition, it should be assumed that Hartman provides a negative value to the mandate of his Flyers to effectively block a prospect – which, to be fair, could be the case. And if that happens, you will surely want the return to be a late first round pick. But there is no reason to think that he is suddenly a replacement striker who has to leave the squad in two seasons. He has been an effective player in the NHL and will continue to do so for the coming seasons, even if he is "only" one of the top nine forwards.

In terms of value only on the ice, the Flyers have done well

The human impact of Simmonds does not replace. He was very important to this city, the players and the fans. However, considering the impact of each player on the table in terms of tangible impacts, the Flyers left with a better player 5 on 5 and the Predators with a better player of the special teams. As Nolan Patrick showed signs that he could assume the role of Simmonds in power play last season – and even have usurped him at times when he was "in good health" – the Flyers traded a player who had already started losing a battle for the role he had played. provides the vast majority of its value on the ice and adds a player who produced at a better rate at 5 vs. 5, which he could use more in the coming seasons.

It's understandable to be disappointed with the return, it was also my first reaction, but apart from the emotional connection and the off-ice effects, it's hard to find a flaw in this deal. The Flyers went from a player who was probably headed for free will in June and received in return a younger winger, at controlled cost, which is more efficient at equal power. This is the type of player the Flyers have in Ryan Hartman, and it's a win in my book.

Data provided by Natural Stat Trick and HockeyViz.