What if Biden, Bernie and Warren were the only remaining Democrats in 2020?

Former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders and Senator Elizabeth Warren at the September 2020 Democratic Presidential Debate.Mike Blake / Reuters

• Former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders and Senator Elizabeth Warren have clearly become the pioneers of the 2020 Democratic presidential race.

• We conducted an experiment to see how their support would disappear if we got rid of all the other players still in the race.
• The three have roughly the same overall support, but Sanders and Warren would both increase while Biden would have the least to win. Biden is the one who is currently enjoying the most in a field as vast.
• However, it is clear that no one has the way to victory without defeating others.
• 18% of Democratic voters would not be satisfied with any of them, which shows that there is still room for another candidate.
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In recent weeks, three candidates running for the Democratic presidential nomination of 2020 have distinguished themselves as leaders: former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Bernie Sanders.

However, at the end of the primary debates in September, there are still 18 candidates in the race, most of whom have virtually no chance of becoming president. Biden polls average about 30%, Warren 19% and Sanders 18%, according to an aggregation of RealClearPolitics. The next candidate, Kamala Harris, is stuck at 7%.

Potential candidates are essentially real statistical noise, which makes it more difficult to identify those who are likely to win the main race by reducing the voting points to their opponents in mind.

So: And if we got rid of it? How would things be between Biden, Bernie and Warren?

Thanks to the unique way Insider conducts its surveys, we can test exactly that. Unlike most voting organizations, the Insider / Surveymonkey survey asks potential voters which candidates would be satisfied to become president, instead of naming only one. Using this data, we performed a mathematical model that analyzed what it would look like if we eliminated all but the first three candidates, and re-elected those voters to Biden, Sanders, and Warren.

If we removed Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, O'Rourke, Yang, Klobuchar, Castro, Bennet, Bullock, Delaney, Gabbard, Ryan, Williamson, Steyer and De Blasio, here is what the field looks like, according to polls that we made this summer:

• For bidenwe would have a situation where 30% of his fans would like him and him alone, 37.4% deciding between him and Sanders or between him and Warren, and a third of his followers with each other.
  • This is compared to a current situation where 16.1% of those who are satisfied with him are satisfied only with him, 15% chose as a choice from two choices and 18% chose as one of the three candidates whom they are satisfied.
• For Sanders, 24% of his followers would appreciate it alone, 42% would support Warren or Biden, and a third would like all three.
  • At present, 15% of his followers love him alone, 18% of them love him and one person, and 19% like him and two other people, the others supporters choosing between four or more people. These numbers are better than those of Biden.
• For Warren15% of her fans would approve her and her alone, which is three times her current level but half of Biden's lockdown rate. 51% of them would be satisfied with her and another person, and a third would approve all three.
  • To this day, only 5% like her and she alone, 12% like her and another person and 19% like her and two others.

It is also important to note that some things do not change. To date, overall, Warren is known and satisfied for 45% of Democrats, about 46% of respondents know Sanders and would be satisfied with him, and 47% would go well with Biden. These numbers are the same, whether you have three suitors or 19.

In this sense, the three are almost tied. But the differences from what the race looks like compared to what it would be if only the three of them say it.

Warren and Sanders catch up with Biden

Biden is clearly the beneficiary of such a large group. While he is about to win voters from other people who have dropped out of school, our polls show that his supporters are remarkably loyal. Compared to other candidates, few voters would be satisfied to have someone else than him as a candidate. Its number roughly doubles, but in our universe Thanos, the increase is not huge.

Read more: A statistic reveals why Joe Biden's base player status has been remarkably stable up until now

Sanders and Warren, however, both increase. Most of the remaining voters would be satisfied with one or the other of them as a Democratic candidate. Both seem to have the greatest opportunity to attract supporters and expand their base.

Nobody can live while others survive.Mike Blake / Reuters

The sharp increase in Warren's number, in particular, is revealing.

One of the reasons she is perceived to be the beneficiary of many dropouts is the fact that many voters, such as Warren and someone else. Thought goes, which makes her the main beneficiary of many other people who give up the race.

While this is true, this alone will not put her in front of Biden and Sanders. Each of the first three must eliminate at least one of the others if he wants to have a chance to win. The only way to win is to kill a giant.

All this experience totally unfair, of course. Although we can be certain that DeBlasio or Delaney will not be president, Harris, Booker, Yang and Buttigieg are still there. Even though they are struggling to shoot at double digits, it is still early and history shows that bottom – of – the – line candidates can reach the finish line.

Senator Kamala Harris still has a chance.Reuters

And in the current state of affairs, 6% of people who have declared themselves to be primary Democratic voters and who are not satisfied with anyone on the ground. In our Thanocracy, where we reduce the options to three, this triple figure of 18%. Lower-ball candidates still have room to convince voters.

But if Warren and Sanders want to catch up with Biden, their strategy should perhaps not be to try to get him into the debate. Instead, it might be better for one or the other of them to eliminate all the criminals who seem less likely every day to go to the White House. If they want to give their representative a flogging, it can only help them.

And if Biden wants to win, he should not be in a hurry to get rid of his smaller opponents who are not threatening him anyway. Chances are, if they give up the race, their supporters would go anyway to another candidate.

SurveyMonkey Audience polls from a national sample balanced by age and sex census data. Respondents are encouraged to complete surveys through charitable contributions. In general, digital surveys tend to bias people with Internet access. A total of 1,090 respondents collected an error margin of +/- 3.07 percentage points from 6 to 7 September 2019 with a 95% confidence level.