What if Mueller finds Trump's fingerprints in a plot in Russia?

(Reuters) – Special advocate Robert Mueller is preparing to submit to US Attorney General William Barr a report detailing his findings in the investigation into Russia's role in the presidential election. 2016, as well as any link with the Trump campaign.

Since May 2017, Mueller has been investigating whether the campaign by US President Donald Trump conspired with Russia and whether Trump illegally sought to obstruct the investigation. Mueller has already indicted or obtained guilty pleas from 34 people, including six Trump associates, as well as three Russian entities.

Here is an overview of the possible scenarios after Mueller's report.

REPORT FINDS A TROMPE INVOLVED IN THE CONSPIRACY OF RUSSIA

Among those who have already pleaded guilty or were convicted include: former Trump campaign president Paul Manafort; Michael Cohen, former Trump personal attorney; Michael Flynn, former National Security Advisor; and former Trump campaign collaborators Richard Gates and George Papadopoulos. Roger Stone, Trump's advisor, and Russian intelligence officers are also indicted.

But the central question is whether Mueller will find that Trump himself played a role in a plot with Moscow to increase his chances of winning the election or an obstacle to justice in an attempt to prevent the investigation. from Russia. Trump denied collusion and obstruction.

If Mueller's report reveals Trump's willingness to hear with Russia or contains evidence of direct coordination involving the Republican President, such findings could constitute the starting shot for the House of Representatives. representatives led by the Democratic Party to launch the impeachment process provided for by the US Constitution. revoke a president.

The current policy of the Department of Justice precludes criminal proceedings against a sitting president.

Stone's indictment describes cases in which campaigners contacted him about Wikileaks, the website that published e-mails that US officials say were stolen by Russians. to the Democrats to harm the Democratic opponent of Trump Hillary Clinton. For example, after the July 2016 broadcast of stolen emails to the National Democratic Committee, a "senior Trump campaigner was invited to contact STONE about any new publication" by Wikileaks, said the act of 39; accusation. The wording of the sentence left open the possibility that Trump himself would lead the campaign leader.

Sam Nunberg, a former Trump adviser and Republican political advisor, said any evidence that Trump was willing to work with Moscow, even without proof that he was doing it, might be enough for Democrats to draft articles of removal. .

"It's impeccable for the Democrats," said Nunberg.

The United States Constitution establishes specific grounds for indictment: treason, bribery or "other serious crimes and misdemeanors". If the House approves an act of imputation, the Senate will hold a trial to determine whether to dismiss the President. The Senate is controlled by Trump's Republican compatriots. Only two presidents have been indicted in American history and none of them has been revoked.

There is also the question of obstruction. Legal experts have pointed out the dismissal of former FBI director James Comey by Trump while he was conducting the investigation on Russia. According to Comey, Trump would have asked him to end the investigation on Flynn, and the president could forgive a possible forgiveness to Manafort. hinders justice.

Barr, months before Trump's appointment as Attorney General last year, an unsolicited memo to the Justice Department explained that Mueller should not be allowed to investigate an obstruction of the president.

THE PERSON IN THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN INVOLVES IN THE CONSPIRACY OF RUSSIA

The Mueller cases against Manafort and Stone are the ones that best show the coordination between Trump's campaign and Russia. Manafort shared data from an election poll with his Russian partner Konstantin Kilimnik, who, according to prosecutors, is linked to Russian intelligence services. Manafort attended a meeting in June 2016 at the Trump Tower in New York with other campaign officials with a Russian lawyer who had promised to "mess up" Clinton. Mueller also discovered that Stone was communicating with Wikileaks and the Russian hacker nicknamed Guccifer 2.0.

But Mueller's testimony released to date is not enough to show that Trump and his campaign have plotted with Russia. Collusion is a non-legal term often used to describe acts that, in the criminal context of the investigation, would likely result in a conspiracy charge against the United States.

If Mueller's report does not go further, it could delay any Democratic effort to remove Trump. But House Democrats could conduct their own investigations that could cause Trump persistent political damage before his bid for the 2020 reelection.

"If nothing turns out more than what is public, I think Trump could claim victory," said Nelson Cunningham, former federal prosecutor in New York and White House lawyer under the presidency of Democratic President Bill Clinton.

THE REPORT INVOLVES OTHERS IN CONSPIRACY BUT NOT THE TRUMP

The transcript of the in-camera hearings this month indicates that Mueller believes that Manafort's alleged lies about his interactions with Kilimnik are "at the heart" of the investigation into a possible collusion between Trump's campaign and Russia.

But this disclosure suggests that Mueller was still trying to determine if there had been collusion. Manafort and Kilimnik also discussed a "peace plan for Ukraine", referring to the Kremlin-friendly proposals to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and end US sanctions against Russia.

It is possible that Mueller's report shows that Manafort or others in Trump's orbit plotted with the Russians, but there was no credible evidence that Trump himself was involved or aware. Although politically damaging to Trump, such a finding may not be sufficient to trigger an impeachment effort, although it may feed into House Committee investigations.

"It's not enough to show that the Russians have used their people," said Robert Ray, second independent lawyer in the Whitewater Inquiry of the 1990s implicating the Clinton's trade relations, adding that it would be necessary to prove that Trump employees were actively involved in reporting that he broke the law.

"I do not think it happened," Ray said.