What is the criticality of the third match for Trail Blazers?



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The Portland Trail Blazers will face the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 of their NBA 2019 playoff series tonight at 7:30 pm in the Pacific Rim. Portland equalized the series 1-1 by winning the second game in Denver on Wednesday night. In doing so, they transferred "the advantage of the playing field" on their side, provided they did not lose a home match as well. Since then, these two words have been on the lips of analysts and fans. They are the subject of the Blazer's Edge Mailbag today.

Dave

Homecourt is ours! Why am I even more nervous than happy? Does this mean that games 3 and 4 must win?

Evaline

Technically, they would have been even more essential to win if the Blazers had lost the second match, right? Their importance now depends on the purpose we are talking about.

Taking the lead in a best-of-seven series is still important, but it only becomes critical when the gap between the two teams reaches two. As long as they are tied or they play equally, nothing should win. The winner in match 3 will have an advantage, but that will only say if he wins match 4 as well.

Portland and Denver are pretty well matched. Their strengths and paths to victory are clear enough. Denver has a significant advantage in central attack on central defense. Portland's job is to compensate for this defense (by removing the best weapon from the opponent) or to score enough points to surpass it. These things will not change much, no matter where the game is played. The series should be agnostic.

I would be surprised to see either team running away with this series. I would not be surprised to see them split their games in Portland like they did in Denver. But it's not a fate for the Blazers. They have already shown that they can win on the Denver field. Offensive rebounds aside, they did it quite convincingly, controlling too.

This assessment avoids putting undue pressure on Portland for the third and fourth games. The Blazers can not lose two, but if they win at least one, they are not in such a bad position today. Then it became a series of three games for the win.

Another asterisk here: the Blazers do not have to fear a match 7. It will be played on the Denver field, but at that time, what would that mean? In six competitions, whatever the place, the teams would have even found themselves. All things being equal, it looks like a coin. If you are the team on the road of the series, having a token to win is a positive result.

To avoid this draw in Game 7, the Nuggets do not have to win one in Portland, but two. It's a big challenge.

For now, you can put your nervousness aside. It would be far better for the Blazers to win the third match than to lose it. If they lose, you can bring back the anxiety of match 4. If they win, they will then have two other home chances to win a match, which would automatically force a match 7.

It also works in the other way too. If Portland's goal is to win the series at home, he must win all three. If Denver can take one of three goals in Portland, he has done what it takes to not lose. The difference is that Portland is getting ahead of pre-series expectations by forcing a 7th match, while the Nuggets are lagging behind. It will be easier for the Nuggets to avoid losing everything in Portland than for the Blazers to win everything in Portland, but it's also easier for the Blazers to force this crucial game than for the upcoming game. Nuggets to avoid it. That's why at the moment, for Portland, getting to the seventh game is a decent goal.

Winning the match on Wednesday was a big deal. Blazers can not expire until the show is over, but you can do it for a minute. The only disastrous result at the moment is losing both Games 3 and 4. As long as it does not happen, Portland is still good.

(PS: It's a bit funny to see the commentators and the fans who swore before the second game that the advantage of the playing field is not decisive for a series.) Let's hope so because the Blazers l & rsquo; This is still not the case … the Blazers just won shows that.)

(PPS Homecourt's advantage does not really work that way, I think, it depends on your way of seeing things, but the general idea is that a team has four home games, the other three at home. Win or lose, this remains true because Denver lost does not mean that they are suddenly playing fewer games at the Pepsi Center now.)

(PPPS How would it be interesting to have a format in which the team with the best seed would get the right to organize the first game of a series, but then the next match would be played at home, whatever the team that won the previous Homecourt advantage could really change sides!)

(Another factor to watch for is PPPPS fatigue.) In Game 6, Denver played 13 playoff games in 27 days, one every night for one month, and the wounds aside, the extension of this series is beneficial. for Portland.)

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