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When Noah Syndergaard returns this summer, the Mets are planning a starting rotation of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, Syndergaard and new signing Taijuan Walker. This is hands down the best rotation in the division and a top-5 rotation in baseball, which should spark great excitement among Mets fans.
The starting pitching depth the Mets have now gained is not as exciting but just as positive with Walker and new Mets Jordan Yamamoto and Joey Lucchesi, who could be competing for an early season rotational position or a departure later in the year. Last year’s successful David Peterson, along with free agent signers Jerad Eickhoff and Sam McWilliams, all hold great promise as starting candidates. As they’re currently built, the Mets have nine or ten serious contenders to start making appearances, which isn’t something the team has had in a long time.
But until Syndergaard returns, there is still an open place at the back of the rotation and plenty of potential candidates to fill it. How the Mets approach this problem depends on a variety of factors, and while there is no clear solution, there are many interesting options.
Walker will most likely kick off the rotation whether or not Syndergaard returns. The Mets pay him starting money and he’s proven to be an effective starter more recently than Lucchesi and Yamamoto with a 161 ERA + out of 11 starts in 2020. He’s not as accomplished or productive as deGrom, Stroman, Carrasco, or Syndergaard, but he’s clearly better than the team’s other background options. Unless there is a significant drop in production, it deserves a place in the rotation.
The Mets will most likely look to Peterson first for fifth place in the rotation to start the season, not because he’s necessarily the best option, but because he’s the only option left that has thrown a full season in 2020. None of Peterson’s Statcast numbers jump off the board, and his fastball and curveball spin rates of the last 10 percentiles are downright putrid, but his value as a sleeve eater and ground ball inducer gives him great potential with improved interior defense. Judging Peterson on the basis of his production in a shortened season might be short, especially since he has no previous MLB experience until 2020, but his abilities play well in the Mets’ limited defense advantages.
While Peterson is the first option the team are looking to fill in the starting fifth role, Lucchesi might be the better option. Lucchesi’s first two seasons in 2018 and 2019 showed steady improvement as his FIP plummeted and his peripherals increased. Lucchesi also induced balls to the ground at a higher percentage in 2019 than Peterson did in 2020, undermining Peterson’s best asset. What restores Lucchesi is his 2020 season marked by injuries where he has shown little efficiency in just three games pitched. Judging Lucchesi’s bad 2020 season might be as pointless as judging Peterson’s big 2020 season, but if those injuries persist, it could be of concern to start the season.
Yamamoto presents an interesting option as a starter. The third-year pitcher has excellent Statcast metrics, including near elite spin rates on both his fastball and curveball and his nasty moves on his slider, but he hasn’t been able to translate this talent into production. Yamamoto kicked off a perfectly good rookie season with a 96 ERA + in 2019, only to fall off a cliff with a 25 ERA + in just four starts in 2020. The short-season caveat also applies to Yamamoto, but unlike Peterson or Lucchesi, he has yet to build up an above average season. If he outshines the competition in spring training, he has a chance to make the rotation, but given his record, he will likely have to exceed expectations by far to start the season in Queens.
Unlike Yamamoto, Eickhoff combined excellent peripherals with a full season of efficient production, hitting 115 ERA + in a full 2016 season. Unfortunately, there was a run from there for the former Phillie, who suffered nerve damage in his throwing hand in 2018 and hasn’t put together an above-par season since. After failing to pitch in 2020, Eickhoff isn’t much more than a minor league recovery project, but with fastball and curveball spin rates exceeding the 80th percentile, it’s worth the work.
After Eickoff is Sam McWilliams, who is a career miner who recently spent time as a starter in the Rays system. The Mets seem to like him a bit since they offered him a major league contract in December, but with no major league experience, comparing him to the rest of the Mets options produces a big shrugging emoji. Unless four other options prove to be viable starters, it’s much more likely that McWilliams will see the major league action first in the reliever box than in the rotation.
This kind of depth also opens up more creative options for Mets starters. A six-man rotation may be favorable later in the season, only likely if the Mets amass a big division lead, as it would provide more rest for the top half of the rotation before the playoffs and give youngsters valuable experience. launchers. Keeping a reliable innings eater like Peterson or Lucchesi in the bullpen as an emergency or emergency start option might work well, especially since the bullpen doesn’t have many left-handed options. beyond recently signed Aaron Loup. Yamamoto could also play well in short bursts with a nasty fastball-slider combination, making him a solid option for the reliever box if there’s no room for him in the rotation. It should be noted that while the Mets have only applied creative bullpen solutions out of necessity over the past two years, manager Luis Rojas recently expressed his openness to using a door opener, which may be considered bold for an organization reluctant to advance analysis.
Whether that happens remains to be seen, but these are all exciting options for a team that should be competing for a title. The addition of Walker to the starting rotation not only solidifies one of the best rotations in the majors this year, but also potentially gives the Mets one of their best rotations of all time.
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