What other airlines could order Boeing 737 MAX?

Last month, the aviation safety agencies of the United States and Brazil recertified the Boeing 737 MAX series for commercial service. This follows a stranding period of almost two years, triggered by two similar accidents involving the type. Airlines around the world will now begin preparing for delivery of new MAX series aircraft. However, which airlines that have not yet placed an order can do so later?

What is the current situation with the MAX?

The Boeing 737 MAX first entered commercial service with Malaysian airline Malindo Air in May 2017. However, less than two years later, aviation safety agencies around the world have grounded the type. This followed two accidents which had striking parallels and subsequently raised serious questions regarding the safety of the type. The crashes of Lion Air Flight 610 (October 2018) and Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 (March 2019) killed 346 people.

During the ensuing grounding period, Boeing sought to address the aircraft’s safety concerns to ensure that such accidents involving the type would not recur. In total, these processes lasted more than 20 months.

Then, on November 18, 2020, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) finally recertified the type for commercial service in the USA. The US government agency was the first aviation safety agency to do so. On November 25, the Brazilian National Civil Aviation Agency (ANAC) became the second regulator to recertify the MAX series for commercial flights in its airspace.

The first post-recertification commercial flights of the MAX are expected to follow at the end of the month. American Airlines plans to deploy the type on a daily round trip from Miami to New York LaGuardia starting December 29. But will the reintroduction of the MAX into commercial service prompt other carriers to place new orders for this type?

Delta – an anomaly among major US carriers?

As we recently mentioned in our podcast, Boeing has built several “white tail” 737 MAX series aircraft. These examples are ready to start operational service, but their orders have been canceled by previous customers. Of course, the ongoing coronavirus pandemic has dramatically reduced passenger demand levels around the world. As such, it can be expected that most airlines are not currently looking to expand their fleets.

However, it has been reported that Delta Air Lines is currently in talks with Boeing regarding the potential future use of these white tails. As it stands, Delta is the only US airline that has not placed an order for the MAX series. This sets him apart from his big three counterparts, American and United, both of which had already taken deliveries before the guy grounded.

It will certainly be interesting to see if anything comes out of these discussions in the near future. Speaking to the Financial Times about it, Delta CEO Ed Bastian said:

“We talk to Boeing about a lot of different things, including the MAX. If there is an opportunity where we would be comfortable acquiring the MAX, we would not hesitate to do so.

Other potential clients

In our podcast, discussing the major US carriers and the 737 MAX, we observed that if Delta orders the MAX, it will leave JetBlue as the only major mainland US airline that does not have this type in its fleet. The carrier’s fleet consists entirely of Airbus and Embraer aircraft. As such, it instead sees its future in the form of the Airbus A220 and the next-generation Airbus A321 variants.

As we reported in August, IAG had signed a letter of intent for 200 MAX aircraft the previous summer, although this has yet to be confirmed. This group is the parent company of carriers such as Aer Lingus, British Airways and Iberia.

In particular, Irish and Spanish national carriers operate fully Airbus fleets. As such, it looks like British Airways will consider expanding some of the MAX planes to its two London hubs, at Heathrow and Gatwick. We also looked at the time to see if the new aircraft, if IAG complies with the order, could see action from the smaller group members, namely Vueling and Level.

If IAG does not take these planes, it could open the door to other carriers. Australian airline Qantas is just one example of an airline currently operating older 737s that may look to the MAX to replace them later. It will certainly be fascinating to see how the post-recertification MAX market evolves in the years to come.

What are your thoughts? Let us know what you think in the comments section,