According to a new memo from J.P. Morgan, tariffs are expected to cost US households up to $ 1,000 a year when the next cycle comes into effect on September 1.
According to analysts at the bank, the cost of the US-Chinese trade war borne by consumers is expected to rise to about $ 600 a year – based on the first two "phases" of tariffs on imports from from China – at around $ 1,000 a year. third series of tariffs.
This figure of $ 1,000 assumes a tariff of 10% on Chinese imports of about $ 112 billion. US President Donald Trump has announced that it will begin next month. While he had originally proposed 10% tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 300 billion, he then reduced that reduction in order to exclude certain consumer products such as mobile phones, laptops and toys.
If the tariff went up to 25% – as President Trump threatened – the cost to consumers would rise to $ 1,500 a year, JP Morgan said.
"What distinguishes China's Phase III tariffs from previous tariffs is the impact on consumption and capital goods," analysts wrote. While previous tariffs were more focused on "intermediate goods", this batch "suggests that the expected impact on consumers should be greater during the last campaign", wrote analysts at the bank.
60PICTURES
Products directly affected by Trump's tariffs on Chinese products
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Me at: pork; beef intestine; rabbit meat; venison; frog legs
Fish and seafood:live fish, including ornamental fish, trout, eels, tuna and carp; chilled or frozen meat of various types of trout, salmon, halibut, plaice, sole, albacore, tuna, herring, mackerel, cobia, swordfish, pollack, whiting, catfish, snowshoe, etc. different types of salted or smoked fish; other seafood, including various types of lobster, crab, shrimp, shrimp, oyster, scallop, mussels, clams, squid, octopus, conch, abalone, sea cucumber and sea urchin.
Meatless animal products such as eggs and dairy products:Whey products; Butter; different types of eggs, including chicken; honey; animal hair, including man, pig, horse and badger; intestines of animals, bladders; feathers; bones, including shells, beaks, corals, hooves, wood, etc.
Vegetables:onions; Garlic; cauliflower and broccoli; cabbage; carrots; turnips; radishes; Beats; cucumbers; peas of various types; Beans; lenses; celery; mushrooms; peppers of various types; to crush; okra; sweet corn; potatoes; sweet potatoes and yams; certain types of tomatoes; spinach; Brussels sprouts.
Fruits and nuts: Coconut; cashew nut; almonds; Hazelnut; nuts; chestnuts; pistachios; macadamia nuts; pecan nuts; Appointment; figs; Pineapple; guavas; oranges; mandarins; clementines; raisins; Grapes; apples; pears; quinces; peaches; berries, including strawberries, raspberries, cranberries, blueberries and others; bananas; a variety of dried fruits; peels of various fruits.
Cereals: wheat, including durum wheat; barley; L & # 39; oats; corn; different types of rice; grain sorghum; buckwheat; quinoa; and more.
Mill Products: flour, including wheat, corn, buckwheat, rice, rye, other cereals, potatoes and bananas; groats and meal of various types, including wheat, corn, oats and rice; malt; wheat, corn, potato starches and more
Oleaginous seeds: soy; sunflower seeds, flax seeds, sesame, mustard, poppy and more; planting seeds for certain crops; cocoas and mint leaves; and algae.
Sugars and sweets: cane sugar; candy without cocoa
Breads and Pasta: uncooked pasta; various breads, pastries, cakes and cookies.
Prepared fruits and vegetables: various fruits and vegetables have previously listened in their prepared or preserved forms; various fruit jams, including strawberries, pineapples, apricots and more; peanut butter; Various fruit juices: orange, pineapple, lime, grape, apple, etc.
Other food products: soya sauce; condiments and seasonings; protein concentrates.
Drinks and vinegars: water, including mineral water; fruit or vegetable juices and juice mixes; stout; wine, including rice wine; ethyl alcohol; vinegars
Food waste and animal feed: treatment sounds; cake; dog or cat food; animal feed
Tobacco Products: various types and preparations of tobacco; tobacco waste; cigars; cigarettes; smoking tobacco
Salts and minerals: salt / sodium chloride; sulfur; graphite; quartz; types of clays; chalk; slate; marble; granite; sandstone; dolomite; gypsum; some plasters; certain types of cement; mica; Epsom salts
Ores, slag and ashes: iron ores, copper, nickel, cobalt, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, chromium, tungsten, uranium, titanium, d & # s; silver, other precious metals and others; slag, various types of ash.
Mineral fuels and oils: coal; lignite; peat; Coke; tar; different types of light oil; different types of kerosene; petroleum oils; liquefied fuels, including natural gas, propane, butane, ethylene and petroleum; oil shale and oil sands
Inorganic chemicals: chemicals such as chlorine, sulfur; carbon, nitrogen, oxygen and silicon; acids, including sulfuric acid, nitric acid, etc. different types of fluorides, chlorides, sulphates, nitrates, carbonates, etc.
Fertilizers: manure of animal or vegetable origin; urea; ammonium sulphate; sodium nitrate; and more.
Tanning and drying of extracts, dyes and paints
Essential oils, perfumes: perfume; products for making up the eyes or lips; manicure or pedicure products; shampoo; Hairspray; bath salts.
Soaps and cleaning products: different types of soap; leather and textile treatments; varnish for shoes and furniture.
Glues, adhesives and enzymes
Photographic products: different types of photographic plates; instant film; different types of films in rolls; different types of motion pictures.
Various chemicals: pesticides; herbicides; fungicides
plastics: vinyl floor coverings and other floor coverings and plastic walls; sausage casings; bags; gloves, including baseball gloves; rain jackets; belts of machines.
Rubber: latex; rods, tubes and other products; conveyor belts; different types of transmission belts; different types of tires; gloves; sealing seals; wings of quay.
Raw skins and leather: animal skins, including cow, buffalo, sheep, goat, reptile; different types of leather made from cows, buffaloes, sheep, goats, reptiles; trunks and suitcases of leather; leather handbags; CD cases; gloves, including skiing, ice hockey and typical use; belts; fur clothing, including artificial fur.
Wood: firewood; coal; different types of wood, including oak, beech, maple, ash and birch; moldings; stems; particle board; different types of plywood; doors; corks and corks; wicker baskets and bamboo.
Paper: Newsprint; writing paper; parchment of vegetables; carbon paper; self-adhesive paper; cigarette paper; envelopes; tablecloths; handkerchiefs; Records.
Products made of wool or animal hair: cashmere; the sons; tapestries and tapestries.
Stone, plaster, cement, asbestos: stone for the art; marble slabs; slate roofing; wheels; Sandpaper; floor or wall tiles; cement bricks.
Ceramic: refractory bricks; pipe; floor tile; porcelain and porcelain.
Glass and glassware: balls; stems; stretched or blown glass; float glass; toughened safety glass; mirrors; carboys, bottles, jars, jars, flasks and other containers; microscope slides; woven fiberglass
Precious stones and pearls: industrial diamonds; silver and silver products; gold and gold products; platinum; palladium.
Iron and steel and metal products:drums; tubes; pipe; doors; the Windows; screws; horseshoes;
Copper: plates; Cables; tubes; pipe; Springs
Nickel: the bars; stems; son
Aluminum:powder; cable; cable; screws.
Various metal products, tools, cutlery: industrial articles made of lead, zinc, tin, etc. saw blades; bolt cutter; hammers; keys; raven bars.
Industrial and commercial machinery: Steam turbines; engines; fuel injection pumps; air compressors; air conditioning machines; refrigerators; cream separators; hydraulic cylinders; escalators; manure spreaders; copiers; vending machines for drinks
Electronic: vacuum cleaners; hair clippers; candles; generators; bicycle lights; electric amps; television cameras; different types of TVs; video projectors.
Vehicles and parts: axles; training trees; gearboxes; radiators.
Ships and boats: sailboats; motor boats; canoes; yachts.
Instruments for scientific or medical use: microscopes; cameras for non-artistic purposes; gauges for pressure, electric currents, etc.
Furniture, bedding, mattresses: car seats; wooden chairs; furniture designed for offices, kitchens and more; mattresses; chandeliers; lamps.
Matching items: buttons; stamps; paintings; collections of zoological, botanical, mineralogical, anatomical, historical and archaeological interest; antiques of more than a hundred years old
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Tariff costs offset the gains from the reduction of the tax
Analysts added that this cost of $ 1,000 should also offset most of the benefits collected by the US household income tax law, rising to about $ 1,300.
"The impact of reduced spending could be immediate for discretionary goods and services because tariffs are regressive," they wrote. "Unlike the agricultural sector that receives subsidies / subsidies to offset the impact of retaliation by China, there is no easy way to compensate consumers."
As this measure has a "much higher cost to the US administration" before the presidential election, analysts have noted that there is "a good chance they will overturn their decision and find a way to reach a land with the Chinese negotiators. "
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Aarthi is a writer for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @ aarthiswami.
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