What the 737 MAX’s return to the sky will mean for passengers

(CNN) – Would you fly the Boeing 737 MAX? This issue will become all too real for passengers in the near future when the aircraft that has been on the ground for about 600 days is returned to service.

The 737 MAX came to a standstill in March 2019, following two crashes within five months of each other that killed 346 people.

All indications now indicate that the aircraft is in the process of being certified for return to service soon in the United States following changes imposed by regulators.

United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) administrator Steve Dickson said earlier this week that the review of the proposed design changes may be “completed in the next few days” and that the regulatory process will start. from there should be relatively straightforward.

2020 is a year when the unprecedented is the new normal and, of course, the current state of Washington, DC is no exception. But even if the FAA sticks to this timeline, it is no exaggeration to say that aviation does not have a roadmap to convince passengers that the latest generation of the world’s best-selling aircraft , the Boeing 737, is safe.

Some carriers, including American Airlines, are already starting to sell tickets on the MAX (although, in this case, on a single daily round trip).

“Our customers will be able to easily identify if they are traveling on a 737 MAX even if the schedules change,” said American Airlines spokesperson Curtis Blessing. “The aircraft type will be visible through the reservation path, and if the times change, there will be notification.”

Southwest Airlines, meanwhile, which had the largest MAX fleet in the United States before the grounding, said it will take longer, suggesting three to four months between legal removal and return to service.

Southwest COO Mike Van de Ven said on an industry earnings call in October: “We have significant operational experience with this aircraft. This is our aircraft. It’s our most reliable aircraft. An environmentally friendly aircraft, and it’s our most comfortable aircraft. So we really can’t wait to fly it again. “

But arguments that could appease investors are unlikely to convince passengers.

Passenger comfort is a major challenge

Basically part of the problem with convincing passengers that the MAX is safe is that there is no guide on how to do it, and another part is that the airline and commercial aviation industry does. don’t like to talk about security.

There is a significant segment of the population that already has some form of fear of flying, and they don’t want to increase those numbers.

There is also the risk that a safety campaign will increase passenger fears: if Boeing and the airlines operating the 737 MAX embark on a public relations frenzy – which is costly, and the biggest recession in the world. story really isn’t the time – – they risk reminding people of the plane’s problems, or making people who weren’t watching the news two years ago aware of them.

“Boeing must be concerned about the unintended consequences of talking about safety,” said Addison Schonland, a partner at the US aeronautical analysis firm AirInsight Group.

Indeed, airlines have been strategizing for some time on how to balance using the MAX planes they need with the fact that some (or even more) passengers will not want to fly them.

There is leeway for airlines to avoid being the first to come here, given that the Covid-19 crisis has reduced the pressure on existing fleets, but at some point an airline will have to be the first to put the MAX back in the air.

And with that will come unprecedented interest from regulators, the media and passengers.

We are living in the 2020s, where almost every passenger has a cell phone to record what’s going on, and it only takes one passenger to go viral while sobbing for fear of getting on a 737 MAX while an agent of overworked door refuses or is unable to modify them, to create a serious image problem – not to mention the first time a 737 MAX has to divert or return to its departure airport for a relatively common problem.

Beyond the public relations blitz put in place, you can expect most airlines to implement a policy (openly or quietly) that passengers who don’t want to fly a 737 MAX can change their ticket at no additional cost.

So when will AirInsight’s Schonland be ready to board a 737 MAX?

“Not for a while is my answer. Maybe wait and see how that goes. I’m pretty sure the revised MAX will be a better systems and safety aircraft,” he said.

“But still,” concludes Schonland, “he’s in no rush to try it.”

Boeing has another problem: the rest of the world

Basically, Boeing doesn’t just need to persuade the Americans or the US regulators.

After damning revelations in investigations into Boeing, its regulator, the FAA, and the relationship between them – including the US House Transportation Committee report, which clearly states that “Boeing failed in its design and development of the MAX, and the FAA failed in its oversight of Boeing and its certification of the aircraft “- international aviation safety regulators insist on forming their own opinion.

In addition to key decisions taken by the European aviation regulator, EASA and the Chinese CAAC, certification by smaller independent regulators in key countries such as Australia, Canada, Japan, Singapore and the Arab Emirates united will be crucial.

Beyond CAAC’s essential safety certification role, China’s interests lie in developing its local airliner programs, which would aid in-depth analysis of the MAX’s systems. And of course, Boeing is a very useful lever against this White House or the next.

But Boeing has an even more intimidating problem: persuading passengers that the fundamental flaws of the 737 MAX have been corrected and resolved and will not make them the 347th person to die on these planes.

Instead of the manufacturer, says AirInsight’s Schonland, the immediate priorities of the Boeing 737 MAX program should be “FAA certification, updating the aircraft to meet certification requirements, and deliveries – in that order.”

But part of the delivery piece of the puzzle is about airline demand, already at all-time low with Covid-19, and which will be even less so for a plane that has been the subject of damning investigations for two years, and that many experts and passengers do not count to be safe.

And it will be a brave airline that wants to be the first to take the flak for the rest of the industry by putting the MAX back into service.

John Walton is a France-based international transport and aviation journalist specializing in airlines, commercial aircraft and passenger experience.