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Rarely does the second-round election generate much interest among voters, but Georgia looks set to be the exception, with its next two Senate rounds in January that will determine who controls the Senate.
Republicans and Democrats are looking for new voters in the state, although CBS News’ general election exit poll suggests no party has much leeway outside its bases before the January second round . Time is running out, with just over two weeks before the early voting begins. One race pits GOP Senator Kelly Loeffler against Democratic Reverend Raphael Warnock and the other has Republican David Perdue defending his seat against Jon Ossoff.
Trey Hood, professor of political science at the University of Georgia, thinks it is crucial for parties to attract new voters to their coalitions to remain viable in January. There are some opportunities for both parties, but first, they’ll likely try to make sure that the people who voted for them in November vote again by January 5.
Postal voting
Despite President Trump’s attacks on postal voting, Georgians have seized the opportunity to vote by mail amid the surge in COVID infections. In November, like other states, they broke postal voting records, successfully requesting and returning 1.3 million postal votes, a return rate of 74%, while nearly 2.7 million people voted early in person. Postal voting will certainly be a key part of democratic efforts in January as well.
Joe Biden dominated the absentee vote, with nearly 850,000 votes, compared to about 451,000 for Mr. Trump. That near 2-to-1 margin helped overcome his deficit in early in-person voting – Mr. Biden had nearly 1,251,000 compared to Mr. Trump’s 1,419,000 – and on ballots on Election Day, when the president called received nearly 588,000, compared to 367,000 for Mr. Biden. votes.
It’s hard to predict how many will vote – and by what means – in January, but according to the US Elections Project, nearly 825,000 people had so far requested ballots in the mail on Wednesday morning. Georgians have until January 1 to submit their requests, although the U.S. Postal Service recommends sending requests as soon as possible. Voters can register for the second round until December 7, and early voting will take place from December 14.
Most Georgians have probably already made their decisions about who will get their vote. No voter who spoke to CBS News planned to change their vote in January’s contests. A week before the November election, a CBS News poll showed that only 4% of likely voters were undecided in the Perdue-Ossoff race. Perdue led with 49.7% against 47.9% of Ossoff, falling to just 0.3% of outright victory. Libertarian Shane Hazel was eliminated with 2.3% of the vote.
Perdue’s vote was not split among Republicans as Senator Kelly Loeffler’s was in his run, and he actually won a fraction more than President Trump, at 49.7%, down from 49. , 3% for the president. Ossoff finished with 47.9% support, giving him around two points to catch up in January.
In the other Senate race, the special election to take the seat of former Sen. Johnny Isakson, Loeffler and Collins won a total of 45% of the vote, ahead of Warnock’s 32.9%. The other Democratic candidates received 15% combined.
Dorothy Harpe, 70, was among the majority of voters who knew who she was supporting ahead of the election. A longtime Republican, Harpe said she voted for Perdue and Loeffler. And she will support them again in the second round.
“Senator Perdue has been here for a long time and is experienced,” said Harpe, who lives in Atlanta. “I don’t think we need the other candidate, Jon Ossoff, because he is not qualified. He has no experience.”
Longtime Democrat Latreana Johnson, 63, of Savannah, first spoke to CBS News in October, during the early voting period. She voted for Warnock and Ossoff at the time and said she plans to do so again in a few weeks. Voting for Ossoff was an easy call for her – because of back-to-back approval.
“Barack Obama supports him 100% and you can’t go wrong with Barack Obama so I support whoever he supports,” Johnson said.
Perdue lost the support of white voters
As was the case in the presidential race, white voters in Georgia, who make up 61% of the Georgian electorate and who mostly supported President Trump, largely opted for Perdue, at 69%, but he -performed with this group, compared to his last Senate candidacy in 2014, when he won 74% of their votes.
In his race, Loeffler won the largest share of white voter support (42%), edging the other Republican in the race, Congressman Doug Collins, who received 28% support.
Perdue won white voters with college degrees, though her margins with that group are much lower compared to her latest bid. In 2014, Perdue won 70% of white college graduates, while this year it won significantly less: 56%.
Jeramy Frederiksen, 39, is an economics graduate and said he voted for Perdue and Loeffler because they best represent his conservative values.
“It was obvious to me,” Frederiksen said. “The kind of conservative value turns more to the man and woman working with personal responsibility, God … and these are signs of strength.”
Hood, who is also director of the Survey Research Center at the University of Georgia, said there had been a change in the base of the two political parties.
“You probably have a higher percentage of white college graduates [voters] who are still Republicans in Georgia versus, say, Wisconsin or something, “Hood said.” It’s very interesting that the party base has changed in terms of sort of working class being sort of the base of the Republican Party now. “
Democrats lead with independents
Georgia Republicans and Democrats voted widely within their party, but Ossoff and Warnock also fared well with independents in November. They won respectively 51% and 37% of independent voters. Six percent of independents chose libertarian candidate Shane Hazel over Ossoff or Perdue.
In the Perdue-Ossoff match, among the 38% of voters who identify as moderate, Ossoff won 63% of their vote, while Perdue only won 34%.
“Things are fairly evenly split in terms of total votes between Republicans and Democrats, so someone is going to have to reach out and recruit new voters to keep their coalition viable, and for both. [parties] it could be Hispanic voters, ”Hood said.
Both sides look to Latinos
Both parties are also likely to target Latino voters, who were more divided in their support for Democratic candidates. Almost a third went for Rev. Raphael Warnock, while 26% voted for the other Democratic candidate, Matt Lieberman. Overall, Latinos made up 7% of the state’s electorate in November.
Ossoff received less support from Latino voters (52%) than President-elect Biden, who won 62% of the Latin American vote in Georgia, while Perdue performed better with Latinos than President Trump, winning 43% of the votes. voice. Mr. Trump won 37% of the Latin American vote in the state. And while Hazel received around 2% of the overall vote, he garnered 4% of the Latin vote.
“The Hispanic population is growing and continues to grow in Georgia, while the white population contracts to some extent and the black populations [are] pretty stable, growing slightly, ”Hood said.
Black voters turn to Democrats
Hood says black turnout is “critical to the Democratic coalition.” He recalled: “During the last round of the senatorial elections that we had in 2008 with Saxby Chambliss, I made the calculations, and the participation of the blacks of the general, of the general of 2008 in the second round, fell by three points. . So it was very high. “Chambliss won the second round by almost 15 points,” and a lot of it was due to this drop in black participation, “Hood said, adding,” if it happens again, it’s going to be very damaging to the Democratic candidates in the second round. “
Black voters make up 29% of the Georgian electorate and 88% voted for Mr Biden. Black women voted overwhelmingly for Jon Ossoff – similar to the presidential race, where Mr. Biden garnered 92% of the votes cast by black women in Georgia. The majority of black voters also opted for Warnock. Johnson said Warnock had seduced her because of her life experiences.
“He can understand. Period,” Johnson said. “He grew up in one of the big projects here in Savannah, GA … he had a lot of siblings and everything, and the result is that [he] can relate to our struggle. ”
Electoral integrity
Republicans have another challenge ahead of them in that key members of their party, including President Trump and the two Senate candidate Republicans, are casting doubts on the electoral system and any Republican who vouched for it, including the Governor and the Secretary of State of Georgia. And it remains to be seen whether the GOP can now convince its constituents to run again in January to participate in a process they have worked to undermine.
“It’s the integrity of the system that I am 100% concerned about,” said Frederiksen, who lives outside of Warner Robins. “If we lose this fair and square, too bad. OK America voted that way, which I don’t think I did.”
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