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Little impact
Afghanistan’s rapid fall caught the world off guard, with President Ashraf Ghani fleeing the capital when it fell.
It will certainly be the major geopolitical story this week but I don’t see any angles where it will affect the markets. Afghanistan’s economy is tiny in every way (except perhaps the opium trade). For example, Afghanistan uses only 30,000 barrels of oil per day.
What is going to happen is a human tragedy and an embarrassment for the United States and the coalition who fought for 20 years to topple it, but I don’t see how that is making a difference in the markets.
Some report a potential demand for gold with the flight of people, but even there Afghanistan’s tiny wealth is negligible.
The UN Security Council will meet on Monday.
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