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We’re three games away from the 14-game Octagon, which means the United States Men’s National Team is just over 20 percent of the way home. You probably remember exactly what happened during the September qualifying window, but here’s a quick recap in case you don’t:
- Game 1 was a disappointing draw in El Salvador in which the United States left points on the table due to questionable team selection and a sloppy finish.
- Game 2 was a disappointing draw against Canada in which the United States were fortunate enough to hang on to point due to obvious chemistry issues.
- Game 3 was a terrifying 1-0 halftime deficit in Honduras that turned into a historic 4-1 victory after head coach Gregg Berhalter went from a 3-4- 3 to the galaxy to a standard 4-3-3.
- Between matches for El Salvador and Canada, Weston McKennie was suspended for having too much love in his heart. He’s back with the squad and, according to Berhalter, is back in the starting XI.
- Gio Reyna was injured in the first game. He’s not back yet.
- Christian Pulisic was injured in the third game. He hasn’t come back yet either.
- Tyler Adams, Miles Robinson, Antonee Robinson, Matt Turner and Brenden Aaronson distinguished themselves.
- You might also have heard that Ricardo Pepi made a half-decent American debut.
These are the results and the big stories from last month! If you want a deeper dive, click on this suction cup right HERE. If you want a more macro takeout, here’s the next one: Berhalter complicated things with various tactical, positional, and training adjustments for five football halves while a young and talented squad learned it was all about ‘a young, talented and slightly overconfident group. The qualifiers for the World Cup are different.
Despite all of the above, the United States finished unbeaten and tied with Canada for second with five points and a +3 goal differential. It was not a Well window but it was a fine window, and if Berhalter and the players learned their lessons (Adams, at least, seems to have done it), then that will also have been productive.
The way that would manifest would be with fewer complications from Berhalter and fewer intensity deficits on the part of the players. They spent the last 45 minutes of the previous window kicking The Catrachos in the * & ^% ing sun. Just bottle it up – familiar training, direct use of staff and playing principles – and off you go.
Again, it’s a three-game window, the one the United States opens by welcoming an already reeling Jamaican team to Austin FC’s Q2 Stadium on Thursday night (7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN 2, Univision, TUDN).
You know that segment of the USMNT fanbase that thinks that just because a player is in Europe, that player is going to come to Concacaf and dominate? It was the whole Jamaican fanbase before the first window. It didn’t go well for them.
The Jamaican federation has spent much of the past four years recruiting binationals – almost all English-Jamaicans – to come and represent the land of their parents or grandparents. Basically, they all play in the first two flights of the English game, and a couple (Michail Antonio, Bobby Decordova-Reid) are legitimate stars.
Due to the UK’s redlist travel ban that was in place during the last window, most of these guys were unable to dress in Jamaica’s two road matches, which took place in Mexico (a valiant 2-1 loss in which Andre Blake gave us all the full experience of Andre Blake) and Costa Rica (a super credible 1-1 draw). They only entered the pitch for the middle of the game, at home against Panama. And they got away completely, losing 3-0. Welcome to Concacaf.
So yes, a point in three games means it’s a changing team.
Antonio is not back for this window. Neither Leon Bailey, nor a host of others who would consider most to be some of the best talent on the team. I’m not going to say that’s a good thing, it takes skill to win games. But talent alone is not enough; it also takes chemistry, intensity and buy-in, and I don’t think Jamaica had that last month.
So maybe a smaller team will work to their advantage in this regard. The guys who are there now, like Reid and Kemar Roofe, as well as old replacements like Blake, Kemar Lawrence and Damion Lowe, really want to be there. They accepted the difficulties of crushing by qualifying.
And that will most likely be a chore for them in this game. Reggae Boyz don’t tend to bunker-fill even when badly overwhelmed, but they did against Mexico and it almost worked. Partly because of Blake’s greatness, and part because any semi-precise clearance is a potential escape.
Don’t get me wrong here: there are players on this squad with legitimate high-end quality and class both on and off the ball, and thanks to Reid and Shamar Nicholson in particular, they have a real sense of the Theodore Whitmore does not want his team to be purely a counterattacking team, and in most cases, it is not necessary.
But when they have to be… good luck continuing.
Chances are, the United States will in some ways feel like they are facing Canada again. Jamaica will likely play a different form – a 4-4-2 is Whitmore’s most favorite formation, although there have also been some 4-3-3s – but will likely grab John Herdman’s game plan with the two hands and literally run with it.
One note: this is the window’s least important game for Jamaica. Just in terms of game theory, the home game this weekend against Canada and then the trip to Honduras next week are much more likely to affect the Reggae Boyz’s last place in the standings (not just points earned – you have to think about the points refused). So I wouldn’t be shocked if people like Reid and Nicholson started this one off the bench in order to keep them fresh.
You want to know why I was pretty glad Berhalter didn’t call in a replacement for John Brooks? Because I’m pretty sure that means he went 4-3-3 for that window. You don’t play a back five if you only carry four center-backs.
And a simple 4-3-3 really is the best look in the USMNT. We saw it in Honduras, and we should see it again here.
• Turner is an easy pick in goal, although he hasn’t lived up to his usual standards lately.
• The best way to break a low block is to place your full-backs up and out around the edge so they can reach the baseline and hit outs across the six-yard box. Dest and Antonee Robinson are the best in the pool at this, so it’s a no-brainer to start them off.
• It is also obvious to launch Chris Richards alongside Miles Robinson. Richards is going to have to make his World Cup qualifying debut at some point, so why not at home in a game where USA will likely have the lion’s share of the ball?
• Adams isn’t the smoothest option # 6 (that would be Gianluca Busio), but I need Tyler Adams for his playing readiness, range and leadership. And it’s not like Adams is a Wrong passer, it’s just that we can’t see him ordering plays with the ball so often given the way RB Leipzig play.
• McKennie is back in the XI. Good. Hope for a statement game.
• Yunus Musah missed Wednesday’s training while waiting for a COVID-19 test – negative, thank you science – so I could see Berhalter opt for Sebastian Lletget’s firm hand (feet?) instead. Lletget is, in fact, super useful against a low block.
But Musah is basically my favorite player in the pool and like Richards you have to get him out sooner or later. At home in a game you’re likely to control, and against a Jamaican midfielder who 1) doesn’t have a ball winner and 2) has been passed three times in three games, the last window seems to me to be the best moment.
• There is no way Pepi will sit after what he did against Honduras. Ditto for Aaronson.
• Weah, like Richards and Musah, would make his World Cup qualifying debut. He offers verticality – Berhalter has said this about 1,000 times in the past 10 days – but he’s really, really underrated as a problem solver both on and off the ball. And he’s an absolute demon that shuts down opposing defenders, which could play an important role in one way (forcing turnovers that the US can turn into chances) or another (making sure the clog clearances are not precise enough to turn into Jamaican breakaways).
Expect him and Aaronson to switch sides a lot.
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The balance of this list, both in terms of how the pieces theoretically work together and in terms of the range of leadership and experience strikes me as fair:
– There’s a guy on each line – Richards, Musah, Weah – making their qualifying debut, which means they’re always going to be surrounded by guys who just finished doing the exact same thing last month.
– The marauding backs are supported by two ultra-responsible defensive ends and the two CBs from the pool who can cover the most ground and do the best defense work in space.
– The extra steel and reach Musah provides in the central midfield makes it easier for McKennie to move forward with those box-finish runs he’s so good at.
It’s simple. It’s simple. It should work. Now let’s hope that Berhalter and the players have taken the lessons of the past month to heart.
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