what we know and what we don’t know

FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WPTA21) – As you may have heard, a weather system is approaching our area. This will bring chances of snow to the image starting Monday and will continue until Tuesday morning. This is a very tricky forecast, so let’s break down what we know and what we don’t know below:

What we know:

We are confident that this storm will arrive early Monday morning and continue until Tuesday morning. This means that travel impacts are possible throughout the day on Monday, especially before sunrise and after sunset. By Tuesday, plows should have a chance to treat the roads and minimize impact, but travel can still be a bit slippery Tuesday morning.

We are also confident that almost everyone will see at least some snow. Everything we see will have to do with the system trail, which is an area of ​​uncertainty …

What we don’t know:

The trajectory of the center of depression is the greatest area of ​​uncertainty. If the storm moves too far east, we could end up with very little snow. If the track is further west, more punchy snow is possible.

The weather models we use to get a sense of what to expect don’t match much. Here is an overview of the two most used weather models, the European model and the American model, or GFS:

Note that the two models do not agree with the location of the greatest snow as well as the amount of snow our area can see. Due to this disagreement, it is difficult for us to determine the snow totals and the location of the largest snow.

In view of this, here is What would you like to know:

Precipitation can start to fall as rain before changing to snow late Sunday evening to early Monday morning. Snow continues to fall from Monday to Tuesday morning. We believe the greatest snow totals are likely in Northwestern Ohio (where 2-4 “is likely). With this system, as a general rule, areas to the east are likely to see more snow. Most of Indiana will see totals in the 1 -3 “range, with areas to the west seeing totals closer to an inch. Additionally, places near Lake Michigan could get localized snow improvement.

Again, this is a tricky forecast that is subject to change. Stick with ABC21 as we refine this prediction over the next 24-36 hours!

Gabe Prough

Meteorologist ABC21

Facebook: Weather Gabe Prough

Twitter: @proughwx