What We Learned From NCAA Women’s Support Reveals

In a 2020-2021 women’s college basketball season with so much uncertainty, the top 16 seeds on the NCAA Selection Committee on Monday contained no real offensive or scratchers.

But we’ve learned a lot about what the selection and ranking process for teams for the NCAA Women’s Tournament might look like in a month’s selection Monday.

From the way the NET rankings were used to why Baylor and NC State may have been ranked lower than expected, here are the biggest takeaways from Monday’s Top 16 seed list.

The NET ranking was not a gospel

The NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) is the new metrics system that the committee uses as the basis of its selection process. It replaces RPI and adds elements of offensive and defensive efficiency to a results-based formula, giving a more complete picture of a team’s capacity.

But Monday’s top 16 revelation showed the committee won’t be more beholden in its decision-making to the NET than it was to RPI.

Texas A&M is the best example. Despite standing 19-1 overall and 9-0 against teams ranked in the NET’s top 50, the Aggies are 13th in the NET. But the committee ranked Texas A&M fifth overall. The committee did not let a single criterion dictate its assessment of the Aggies.

It also works the other way around. Indiana ranks ninth in the NET, but only 15 on the committee board. The Hoosiers’ four losses seemed to be more of a factor than the NET.

Sweet surprises: Baylor as No.3 seed, NC State as No.2

NC State has been screened as the No. 1 seed in the women’s parenthesis for all but one week this calendar year. Baylor has been a No. 2 seed throughout this time. In Monday’s reveal, NC State was No.6 overall (No.2) and Baylor No.10 overall (No.3).

None of these places are obvious, but they are surprising. Baylor are one of the best defensive teams in the country, are the leader of the Big 12 Conference and have dominated since a loss to Iowa State in mid-January, which came just after a hiatus from COVID-19. . In yet another example of the NET being simply part of team history, the Lady Bears are fourth in the NET. The surprising part is that Baylor are a team that could have been in the conversation for a No.1 seed more than a No.3.

NC State’s resume might be the most difficult to assess. Like Baylor, the Wolfpack have lost two games. One, however, was deprived of its best player, Elissa Cunane. They also had victories over two of the committee’s No.1 seeds – South Carolina and Louisville. This would usually indicate that a # 1 seed would also be in the Wolfpack maps. Instead, the committee had UConn, South Carolina, Stanford, Louisville, and Texas A&M before them.

“The strength of the Baylor calendar [rated 96th] and two losses, one outside of the NET (State of Iowa) top 25, were probably the most important factors in their placement, ”said NCAA Selection Committee Chair Nina King. NC State’s losses were also above the NET’s top 25. “

Losses – both in quantity and quality – were a big factor in the standings of both teams. The exception – and there always are since 14 different criteria are taken into account in the selection process – is Stanford. The Cardinal also recorded two losses, one of which came out of the NET (Colorado) top 50, but Stanford was still a No.1 seed. This is an example where the NET could have helped a team. Stanford is No. 1 in the NET, which weighs more heavily on road games than home games. The well-traveled Cardinal – moved for nine weeks due to COVID-19 protocols in Santa Clara County, has played 13 road games this season.

Five SEC teams in the top 16

The SEC led the way with five teams – South Carolina (No.2), Texas A&M (No.5), Georgia (No.12), Tennessee (No.13) and Kentucky (No.16) – Monday reveal . While I only had three SEC teams in my last top 16, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee were No. 17-19 on my list. It is therefore not a surprise.

By all available calculations, the SEC has been the best conference in the country this season, with eight teams in the NET’s top 36. Getting five teams in that top 16 reflects the data and what we’ve seen. Interestingly, the Razorbacks, the SEC team with the most notable pair of non-conference wins (Baylor and UConn), were not among the five. This could be another illustration of the quality of the conference.

The SEC also has eight teams in Monday’s pre-reveal version of Bracketology, and all eight are comfortably in the field. Florida and Ole Miss could add to that with a big end-of-season push. But more SEC teams in the 64-team field would likely mean fewer in the top 16. Any run for the Gators and Rebels would only come with wins over Georgia, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Texas A&M.

Long breaks from COVID-19 appeared to hurt Michigan and South Florida

Michigan, Rutgers and South Florida were ranked in the NET’s top 16 but not on the committee’s list on Monday. The Wolverines, Scarlet Knights and Bulls have also had lengthy COVID-19 related breaks during their seasons and haven’t played as many games as most teams.

Rutgers’ three losses keep the Scarlet Knights from the top 16, but Michigan and South Florida should have been in contention. Until Sunday they were both 11-1 and were included in my last top 16. In fact, the Wolverines were a No.3 seed.

But one of the unknowns as this revelation approached was how the committee would look at teams that haven’t played as much. Now we have our answer: playing fewer games was a significant downside to the CV.

“We looked at Michigan, but ultimately felt their work didn’t warrant a top 16,” King said. “It’s hard to assess all the abilities of a team when they haven’t played so much.”

This is an important clue to how the committee will assess the teams for the rest of the field in March. Any sort of significant break at this point in the season now appears to be hurting teams in the bubble who are fighting for a spot on the pitch or others fighting for higher seeds.

It could also be a sign that teams with a large number of postponed games – Michigan have nine and Rutgers and South Florida each have eight – might want to try and play as many of those games as possible.