What will Earth look like in 500 years?

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Scientists can make fairly accurate predictions about the future. But predicting what the Earth will look like in 500 years is a difficult task because many factors come into play. Imagine Christopher Columbus in 1492 trying to predict the Americas today!

We know that two main types of processes change our planet: one involves natural cycles, like the way the planet spins and moves around the Sun, and the other is caused by life forms, especially humans. .

The Earth itself is in motion

The Earth is constantly changing.

It wobbles, the angle of its inclination changes, and even its orbit changes to bring Earth closer or further from the Sun. These changes occur over tens of thousands of years and are responsible for ice ages.

Five hundred years is not a very long time in geology.

Humans are changing the planet

The second great influence on the planet is living things. The effects of life on the planet are more difficult to predict. Disrupting one part of an ecosystem can derail a lot of other things.

Humans in particular change the Earth in several ways.

They cut down forests and destroyed important wildlife habitat to build cities and grow crops. They move invasive species around the planet, disrupting ecosystems.

They also contribute to global warming. People are changing the climate, primarily by burning fossil fuels that release more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the planet and atmosphere can handle.

Normally, greenhouse gases trap heat from the Sun like glass in a greenhouse, keeping the Earth warmer than it would otherwise be. It can be useful – until we get too many.

The result of too much carbon dioxide is that temperatures rise, which can lead to dangerously hot summer days and melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica. Melting ice caps lift the oceans, causing coastal areas to flood.

The story continues

This is what the Earth is facing right now. These changes could lead to a very different planet in 500 years, depending in large part on the willingness of humans to change their ways. A warming planet can also contribute to extreme weather conditions such as heat waves, storms and droughts that can change the earth. All living forms on Earth are in danger.

Learn from the past 500 years

Looking back over the past 500 years, the living part of the Earth, called the biosphere, has changed dramatically.

The number of humans has grown from around 500 million people to over 7.5 billion today. More than 800 plant and animal species have disappeared due to human activities during this period. As the human population increases, other species have less room to roam. Rising sea levels mean even less land, and rising temperatures will send many species migrating to better climates.

Not all of Earth’s changes are caused by humans, but humans have made some of them worse. A major challenge today is to get people to stop doing things that create problems, like burning fossil fuels that contribute to climate change. It is a global problem that forces countries all over the world and the people who make up them to work towards the same goal.

Coming back to Christopher Columbus, he probably couldn’t have imagined a highway full of cars or a cell phone. Technology will undoubtedly improve over the next 500 years. But so far, technological solutions have not developed fast enough to solve climate change. Keeping doing the same things and expecting someone else to fix the problem later would be a risky and expensive bet.

So the Earth in 500 years could be unrecognizable. Or, if humans are willing to change their behaviors, it can persist with its forests, oceans, fields and vibrant cities for many centuries to come, with its most prosperous inhabitants, humanity.

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This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It was written by: Michael A. Little, Binghamton University, State University of New York and William D. MacDonald, Binghamton University, State University of New York.

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The authors do not work, consult, own any stock or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have not disclosed any relevant affiliation beyond their academic appointment.