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When the Cubs’ new president of baseball operations, Jed Hoyer, took the microphone earlier today for his introductory press conference, his comments on the stream lack extension talks were disappointing. I understand the timing – we haven’t hit the submission deadline yet – but surely there are guys the Cubs already know they’d like to keep for the long haul.
Not only do the Cubs have several key players entering their final year of team control, but one of those players, Anthony Rizzo, is the Cub and the team’s longest-serving (unofficial) captain. I know he’s not Chicago’s youngest player and maybe his best years are behind him, but I’d really rather not live in a world without Anthony Rizzo at first base, even a day earlier. as needed.
Fortunately, Hoyer went on to explain that there are, of course, some guys they would love to keep for the long haul, and for the reasons I mentioned above, I truly believe Anthony Rizzo is at the top of this pile. And, well, remember: Hoyer is the guy who acquired Rizzo three times. Not Theo Epstein. (Of course, Hoyer is also the guy who said the Cubs and Rizzo camp was too far for an expansion last winter, so….)
But that was a year ago and a lot can change in 12 months (on both sides). So let’s get back to this conversation and see if we can’t land in a place that works for both parties. Even if we only imagine it.
The first thing is first: Anthony Rizzo, 31, is currently under Cubs control for 2021 at $ 14.5 million. In my scenario, which is entirely speculative, I’m going to assume that the Cubs and Rizzo will be open to restructuring this year as part of a larger deal. So, with that in mind, what’s the offer? How about a five-year $ 100 million deal with a $ 25 million option / $ 10 million buyout at the end (so that’s $ 110 million guaranteed).
Here’s how that would play out with his playing age in parentheses for each season:
2021 (31 year old season): $ 10M + $ 5M signing bonus (EOY)
2022 (32): $ 17.5
2023 (33): $ 22.5M
2024 (34): $ 22.5M
2025 (35): $ 22.5M
2026 (36): $ 25 million option ($ 10 million buyback)
Let’s start with 2021, where Rizzo effectively gets an additional $ 500,000 in exchange for restructuring his salary so that only $ 10 million goes to payroll this season, with the other $ 5 million coming in the form of a bonus. at the end of the year, when the team’s financial outlook should to be better (or at least more secure). I could devise ways to tie this bonus to a floor of $ 5 million with a higher payout based on the number of games played with fans in 2021 (or something along those lines). Either way, Rizzo gets a bit of a bump this year, but actually wins the same amount.
This structure gives the Cubs some leeway over the payroll in 2021 and 2022, but guarantees Rizzo significant shares in 2023-2025, more commensurate with his value. Maybe that’s more than the Cubs want to pay for those years, but it’s probably not the length Rizzo hoped for either (only four more years guaranteed).
Including 2021, the least that Rizzo could earn in total would be $ 110 million and the maximum he could earn is $ 125 million. Either way, it would likely be the last (or at least the last big big deal) of his career.
So the question then: would he accept a deal like this?
Aside from the love we have for Rizzo and he may have for Chicago, the question comes down to dollars and cents. If Rizzo were to test the free agency after 2021, how good should it perform (and how healthy should it be) to beat the actual “meat” of the expansion, which is actually a contract. of four years and $ 85 million with a club option for $ 25 million (plus buyout of $ 10 million).
In other words, it’s actually a four-year, $ 95 million guarantee for a 32-year-old first baseman.
On the one hand, of course, Rizzo could beat that if he is as good in 2021 as he has been throughout his career. Not only has he been a unique (and still above average) offensive performer throughout his career, he’s also a four-time Gold Glover at first base, and a famous member and leader in the club- house. Barring a cataclysmic turnaround in revenues throughout 2021 or a cataclysmic turnaround in performance, it’s a very good bet to beat that guarantee.
At the same time, you cannot completely ignore those things that “forbid this or that”.
Rizzo has just had his worst offensive season since wearing a Padres jersey in 2011. No, he’s never really been concerned at home plate this year, and plenty of 2020 caveats apply, but I’m just saying that … its performance barely works. his favor. Plus, he’s missed time pretty much every season with back injuries, and that’s going to be a lingering concern for any party involved, including the Cubs. Finally, after signing an agreement favorable to the team in 2013, this new agreement would considerably outweigh the previous one. Given the uncertainties of 2021 and the expected controversial CBA negotiations of 2022, an offer of more than $ 100 million now, will be hard to refuse.
Going back to part of the Cubs perspective, I just have to say: WHO CARES how much it costs.
I believe Anthony Rizzo will be worth this proposed contract based ONLY on his performance on the field and at the clubhouse, not to mention his popularity in Chicago, but it’s much more than that. Anthony Rizzo is cubs. It defines this era. For outsiders, Javy Báez could be the guy with the biggest sales of shirts, Kris Bryant could be the MVP who led his team to the World Series, and Yu Darvish may have the friendliest personality and online presence. that we’ve seen in years (I could go on with others), but Anthony Rizzo is the heart and soul of this franchise. The Cubs need to do whatever it takes to lock him up, and I just think this deal is fair for both parties.
Cubs may not currently be engaged in extension talks just yet – and they’ll likely want to maintain as much flexibility as possible in the dead of winter – but the time will come soon enough. And I hope – very strongly – that they will prioritize a deal for Rizzo. I can’t imagine going through this new era of Cubs baseball without him.
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