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Whether it is official manufacturing gauges or not, or manufacturing survey results from Caixin, Chinese PMIs should take the spotlight early Tuesday. The Logistics and Purchasing Federation will publish the official Chinese Purchasing Managers (PMI) indices at 01:00 (GMT), followed by the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, due to be released at 01:45 (GMT).
Markets do not expect a change in the NBS manufacturing PMI of 50.5 against 51.0 marks a bit strong, against 50.8 before the release of its private counterpart of Caixin. In the case of non-manufacturing SMIs, a reading a little softer than 54.8 previously could reach 54.5.
TD Securities is expecting a continuation of the recent improvement of the Chinese PMI, which reads as follows:
We expect China's April manufacturing PMI to rise from 50.5 in March to 50.9. Chinese statistics released last March far exceeded expectations and revealed that stimulus measures were under way. April will probably maintain this constructive tone, with new signs of stabilization. CPI's forward-looking components, such as new orders and expected production, increased. Separately, the United States and China continue to move toward a trade deal. The resumption of electricity production and the increase in loans also suggest some improvement in manufacturing activity and the business climate.
Nevertheless, Westpac seems a bit cautious while expecting consolidation of the PMI stocks:
The rebound of Chinese manufacturing PMIs in March is a key part of the story of the Chinese recovery after slow growth. The April PMI indexes are therefore of great interest, starting with official surveys of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries (11 am Sydney / 9 am). local). The consensus is for the consolidation of the March rebound, around 50.5 and 54.9 respectively. The manufacturing PMI sponsored by Caixin (more oriented towards small private companies) is expected 45 minutes later, at 50.9.
How could this affect the AUD / USD?
The recent recovery of China's overall data, including the PMI, appears to have played a positive role for the AUD / USD pair, despite a growing consensus on reducing the rate of the Reserve Bank of Australia ( RBA). As a result, positive impressions from Australia's largest customer could bode well for the Australian pair, which is already in the fourth consecutive positive daily region.
The recent optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal and the Chinese data could still gain strength to propel the AUD / USD to 0.7055 / 60 and the 50-day single moving average of 0.7105 in case optimistic PMI. However, unmet expectations may not prevent the AUD / USD from returning to 0.7030 and a rising trend line since January 04 around 0.7005 / 0.7000.
Key notes
AUD / USD remains positive around 0.7060 ahead of Chinese PMI
AUD / USD analysis: Bullish case gets stronger above 0.7070
AUD / USD Technical Analysis: Slow below resistance 0.7075
About the NBS Manufacturing PMI in China
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) published by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) examines the situation of Chinese manufacturing firms. Any reading above 50 indicates an expansion, while a reading less than 50 indicates a contraction. As the Chinese economy has an influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market.
About China Caixin PMI
The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI ™ is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in more than 400 private manufacturing companies.
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