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BYU football is 8-0 and ranked No. 8 in the AP poll. With just northern Alabama and San Diego state currently on the schedule, the Cougars have an 89% chance of going undefeated according to ESPN FPI. If BYU ends the season undefeated, they will have the chance to play in one of college football’s coveted New Year’s Six (NY6) bowling games. Earlier this week, we took a look at where BYU should be ranked to qualify for an NY6 bowl. The college football playoff standings will ultimately determine whether BYU qualifies for an NY6 bowl or not. Today, let’s take a look at where we think BYU will rank when the first college football playoff standings are released on November 24.
How are we going to do this? Let’s keep it simple – we’ll use the AP poll as a baseline and analyze the gaps in the first CFP ranking of the season compared to the AP poll of the same week. We will return to 2014 when the CFP committee started ranking teams for the college football qualifiers. Based on the patterns and trends we find, we’ll try to predict where BYU will rank and why.
Without further ado, let’s start with 2014. Please excuse any typos, there are a lot of words and numbers in this article!
2014
Winners:
The “winners” are the teams which were ranked higher by the CFP committee than the voters of the AP. It is important to remember that the CFP committee is starting from scratch after watching 10 weeks of football. The AP poll begins before the season even begins and slowly moves teams up or down as they win or lose. Without being anchored in the pre-season rankings, the CFP committee can intervene and establish a whole new hierarchical order. We will only list the teams that have moved at least three places in the polls.
Ole Miss: +3 vs AP Poll (# 7 to # 4)
UCLA: +3 vs AP Poll (# 25 to # 22)
TCU: +3 vs AP Poll (# 10 to # 7)
Losers:
The “losers” are obviously the opposite. These are teams that scored well in the AP survey, but received a lower rating from the CFP committee.
Notre Dame: -4 vs AP Poll (# 6 to # 10)
Alabama: -3 vs AP poll (# 3 to # 6)
LSU: -3 (# 16 to # 19)
Ohio State: -3 (# 13 to # 16)
Marshall: -3 or more (# 23 to unranked)
To take away:
The very first CFP ranking did not favor the blue bloods of college football. Notre Dame, Alabama, LSU and Ohio State fell at least three places in the first week of those rankings. Marshall and East Carolina were the only non-P5 teams ranked this week, both having lost at least two places in the CFP standings.
2015
Winners:
Texas A&M: +6 vs AP Poll (# 25 to # 19)
Mississippi State: +4 vs AP Poll (# 24 to # 20)
Alabama: +3 vs AP Poll (# 7 to # 4)
Notre Dame: +3 vs AP Poll (# 8 to # 5)
Losers:
Houston: -7 vs AP Poll (# 18 to # 25)
North Carolina: -5 or more vs AP Poll (# 21 to unranked)
Toledo: -4 vs AP Poll (# 20 to # 24)
Baylor: -4 (# 2 to # 6)
TCU: -3 (# 5 to # 8)
To take away:
There was a lot of movement in the first edition of the 2015 CFP rankings. Two non-P5 teams had major successes: Houston fell from # 18 to # 25 and Toledo went from # 20 to # 24. Two non-P5 teams also saw minor improvements in their rankings: Memphis went from 15th to 13th and Temple from 23rd to 22nd.
Of all the teams on this list, TCU and Baylor have suffered the most. Normally, the top 10 in the CFP ranking is similar to the top 10 in the AP poll. This was not the case for Baylor and TCU. TCU went from # 5 to # 8 and Baylor from # 2 to # 6.
2016
Winners:
Penn State: +8 vs AP Poll (# 20 to # 12)
Colorado: +6 vs AP Poll (# 21 to # 15)
Virginia Tech: +4 vs AP Poll (# 23 to # 19)
Oklahoma State: +4 vs AP Poll (# 22 to # 18)
Texas A&M: +3 (# 7 to # 4)
Losers:
West Virginia: -6 vs AP Poll (# 14 to # 20)
Western Michigan: -6 vs AP poll (# 17 to # 23)
Baylor: -4 (# 13 to # 17)
North Carolina: -3 (# 18 to # 21)
Florida State: -3 (# 19 to # 22)
To take away:
In case you haven’t noticed, no non-P5 team has so far been listed as a ‘winner’. There has, however, been at least one non-P5 “loser” each season. Why is this important? BYU is not in a Power Five conference.
2017
Winners:
Mississippi State: +5 vs AP Poll (# 21 to # 16)
Oklahoma: +3 vs AP Poll (# 8 to # 5)
Losers:
Wisconsin: -5 vs AP Poll (# 4 to # 9)
UCF: -3 vs AP Poll (# 15 to # 18)
Ohio State: -3 (# 3 to # 6)
Stanford: -3 (# 18 to # 21)
To take away:
2017 is the season UCF went undefeated and declared itself national champion. In week 10 of this season, UCF was ranked # 15 in the AP poll and the committee dropped them down to 18th place.
2018
Winners:
Iowa: +3 vs AP Poll (# 19 to # 16)
Syracuse: +3 vs AP Poll (# 22 to # 19)
Mississippi State: +3 vs AP Poll (# 21 to # 18)
Losers:
Houston: -9 or more vs AP Poll (# 17 to unranked)
State of Utah: -8 or higher vs. AP Poll (# 18 to unranked)
Fresno State: -3 vs AP poll (# 20 to # 23)
UCF: -3 (# 9 to # 12)
To take away:
2018 was a brutal year for non-P5 teams in the CFP rankings. Each non-P5 team has lost at least three places in the standings. Remember 2018 UCF as this may be the most comparable team we have with 2020 BYU.
2019
Winners:
Kansas State: +4 vs AP Poll (# 20 to # 16)
Wisconsin: +3 vs AP Poll (# 16 to # 13)
Wake Forest: +3 vs AP Poll (# 22 to # 19)
Losers:
Minnesota: -4 vs AP Poll (# 13 to # 17)
Cincinnati: -3 vs AP poll (# 17 to # 20)
To take away:
Cincinnati was the top-ranked non-P5 team heading into the first version of the CFP rankings in 2019. Sadly, the Bearcats fell three spots in the polls. SMU, San Diego State and Memphis also lost two places each.
Where will BYU be classified?
Why BYU will maintain or improve its # 8 ranking
Traditionally, non-P5 teams have always fallen in the CFP rankings compared to the AP poll. Why would 2020 be any different? Well, the 2020 college football season has been different in every way. The fact that BYU will have played nine games when teams like Wisconsin have only played three could help BYU maintain a No.8 ranking.
As the only team to play in the West in September and most of December, BYU had a big stage where committee members would have had multiple opportunities to watch the Cougars. Furthermore, BYU passed the proverbial eye test dominating teams by an average of 45.3-13.9.
Why BYU will drop in the rankings
BYU has two major hurdles to overcome in the eyes of the CFP committee: The Cougars aren’t part of a power five conference, and their schedule strength won’t be comparable to some of the other ranked teams around them. As we have seen since 2014, the CFP committee values the power five label and great victories on the 25 best teams. BYU has only one victory over a top 25 team this season.
Prediction
Conditions surrounding college football make prediction of the standings even more difficult this season. History suggests BYU will fall in the polls, but there are factors related to the pandemic that could make this season the exception. I think BYU will stay in the top 10, but I think they drop a spot or two to # 9 or # 10. That could change over the next few weeks as the surrounding teams win and lose, but this would be my prediction if the rankings were released today.
If falling in the standings would be disappointing, no non-P5 team (apart from Notre Dame) has ever been included in the top 10 of the first edition of the CFP ranking. Cincinnati could join BYU to make history as a non-P5 team to make the top 10.
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