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BYU football is 8-0 and ranked No. 8 in the AP poll. With only northern Alabama and San Diego currently on the schedule, the Cougars have an 89% chance of going undefeated according to ESPN FPI. If BYU ends the season undefeated, they will have the chance to play in one of college football’s coveted New Year’s Six (NY6) bowling games. Without a conference affiliation, however, the Cougars should receive a blanket offer to play in an NY6 game. Today we take a look at past NY6 at-large auctions and determine where BYU needs to be ranked to make an NY6 bowl.
First of all, it’s important to note that the number of at-large auctions may change depending on which NY6 destinations host the college football playoffs and which conferences go to the playoffs. Obviously, it’s unclear who will go to the playoffs. But we do know the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl are hosting the CFP this year which is the same rotation as 2017 and 2014. Since 2014 and 2017 were on the same rotation as 2020, we will compare the most with those two years.
It’s also important to note that the college football playoff standings determine who gets invited to the playoffs and who receives blanket offers. The first CFP 2020 ranking will be published on November 24. If you’re wondering how these rankings stack up against the AP poll, stay tuned for analysis on this topic later this week.
Finally, it is very important to note that BYU does not qualify for the NY6 five-seat group. I have seen some analysts misunderstand this. G5 NY6 is awarded to the highest-ranked G5 team in the final college football qualifying standings. BYU is not in a G5 conference. Therefore, they are not eligible for the G5 Auto Offer. If the season ended today, the G5 representative would be Cincinnati. BYU is not competing with Cincinnati for the same spot in an NY6 game.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at 2014:
Bowls NY6 2014
- Sugar Bowl: Alabama (1) vs. Ohio State (4)
- Rose Bowl: Oregon (2) vs Florida State (3)
- Cotton Bowl: Baylor (5, auto) vs Michigan State (8, overall)
- Peach Bowl: TCU (6, overall) vs Ole Miss (9, overall)
- Fiesta Bowl: Arizona (10, offshore) vs Boise State (20, auto G5)
- Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (12, auto) vs Mississippi State (8, auto)
In 2014, the top-ranked team in the NY6 excluded CFP rankings was Kansas State in 11th place. Why was the state of Kansas excluded when it was in the top 12? They did not qualify for a blanket offer.
To understand general offers, you need to understand the difference between the three NY6 contract bowls and the three NY6 access bowls:
NY6 Contract Bowls
These bowls are under contract with specific P5 conferences. If these bowls do not host the PSC semi-final, they invite the same conferences every year:
- Rose Bowl (Big Ten champion / Big Ten runner-up if champion goes to the playoffs vs. PAC-12 champion / PAC-12 runner-up if champion goes to the playoffs)
- Sugar Bowl (SEC champion / SEC finalist if champion goes to playoffs vs BIG 12 champion / Big 12 final if champion goes to playoffs)
- Orange Bowl (ACC champion / ACC finalist if champion goes to the playoffs against highest level available from SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame)
NY6 access bowls
These bowls take turns hosting the PSC semi-finals, but they are not under contract with specific conferences. If they don’t run the playoffs, they welcome P5 champions who weren’t invited to the playoffs and the top ranked G5 team. If there are still places, they issue general invitations based on the CFP ranking. Matches depend on geography and the perceived competitiveness of the games.
- Cotton bowl
- Party bowl
- Fishing bowl
The good news for BYU fans is that Package Bowls are hosting the PSC semifinals, which means more high-profile spots are available this season than other rotations.
Bowls NY6 2017
- Sugar bowl: Clemson (1) vs Alabama (4)
- Rose Bowl: Oklahoma (2) vs Georgia (3)
- Cotton Bowl: Ohio State (5, auto) vs USC (8, auto)
- Peach Bowl: Auburn (7, overall) vs UCF (12, auto G5)
- Fiesta Bowl: Penn State (9th overall) vs Washington (11th overall)
- Orange Bowl: Wisconsin (6 auto) vs Miami (10 auto)
In 2017, the highest ranked team in the CFP rankings excluded from NY6 was Stanford in 13th place. It was a rare year – every team in the top 12 of the CFP rankings was invited to an NY6 match.
So what?
Since the NY6 offers depend on which conferences will make the playoffs, we are not sure exactly where BYU will need to rank to qualify for a general NY6 offer. however, each team ranked # 9 or better has been invited to an NY6 game since 2014. In other words, nine is the magic number BYU needs to finish this season on the leaderboards.
If the season ended today
If the season ended today and the AP poll was the CFP ranking, this is what NY6 might look like:
- Sugar bowl: Alabama (1) vs Clemson (4)
- Rose Bowl: Notre Dame (2) vs Ohio State (3)
- Cotton Bowl: Indiana (10, free) vs Oklahoma State (14, auto)
- Peach Bowl: Florida (6, offshore) vs Cincinnati (7, auto G5)
- Fiesta Bowl: Oregon (11, auto) vs BYU (8, overall)
- Orange Bowl: Miami (9 auto) vs. Texas A&M (5 cars)
Update: I forgot the Big 12 in the original projections. This is now updated to include the Big 12.
It is important to remember that the AP survey can vary considerably from the CFP ranking. Again, stay tuned for more analysis on this topic later this week.
If you have any questions, feel free to ask them in the comments section.
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