Which films should win Oscars? Here's what will happen if critics voted

If critics could influence the outcome of Sunday's Oscars with the same precision as predicted by the experts, two great possibilities would remain unchanged: "Roma" wins the Best Film Award and Alfonso Cuarón is named Best Director. After that, the stories become very different.

According to 41 critics who voted in IndieWire's annual survey of Oscars and Independent Spirit Awards, the gap between will win and who should has never been so big – but the Spirit Awards nominees are well worth it.

The results in the Oscars categories should not come as a surprise in one of the most open rewards seasons of all time. But it also highlights an essential distinction between critical favorites and Oscar favorites, which are subject to change. Although stories around various categories have changed several times over the last few months, critics do not work that way.

Alfonso Cuarón on the set of "Roma"

Photo by Carlos Somonte

"Roma" was celebrated from the start, leading the annual survey of IndieWire critics and many others. However, the latest survey results show that a beloved film is only one fragment of the many highlights among this year's nominees that critics have appreciated. In several broad categories, the results differ greatly from the ideas received about leaders.

Overall, this survey provides a map on which Oscar-nominated films resonate most with critics. Critics were also invited to select the top-rated titles for the best categories at Saturday's Independent Spirit Awards. If you have not had the chance to catch up with the two rewards competitors, these selections should provide a handy guide to the best bets for weekend viewers.

Critics agree that the star of the best supporting actress, Regina King, deserves this status for "If Beale Street could speak." However, three of the four Oscar performance categories rule out consensus choices among the experts who predict the likely outcome.

Bradley Cooper

PETER LINDBERGH

The transformation of Rami Malek into Freddie Mercury may have guaranteed him an Oscar for "Bohemian Rhapsody", but critics were much more interested in another musical performance, Bradley Cooper as Jackson Maine in "A Star Is Born" for the best actor. Similarly, Glenn Close was a sure bet for the best actress in "The Wife" in recent months – but, like "Bohemian Rhapsody," the film was not a critical hit.

Instead, the survey shows more enthusiasm for Olivia Colman as the domineering queen of "The Favorite". And while experts believe that Mahershala Ali remains so beloved that his "Green Book" won for Best Supporting Actress is assured, many more critics voted for Richard E. Grant, the street kid who drinks in the streets of Can you forgive me?

This film also garnered support for Best Adapted Screenplay, beating leader Spike Lee and his script "BlacKkKlansman". At the same time, the original best-case scenario reflects the sheer complexity of this category, as the favorite favorite "The Favorite" tied with the black horse "First Reformed".

Of course, the best film race is not the only opportunity to distinguish the films in their entirety, as the Best Foreign Language and Best Documentary categories both offer alternatives. Critics agree that "the Roma" should prevail in many of the categories where it is intended to do so, but they would prefer that the Academy convey the love of the best. film in foreign language, because "the cold war" receives more support in this area. Category. The best documentary race has seen "Free Solo" among the favorites since "Won & # 39; t You Be My Neighbor" has been snubbed, but more and more critics would like to see Ming Liu's multi-year test film " Minding the Gap 'first prize.

"Bridging the gap"

Sundance

There are other notable digressions from the Oscars' predictions, including the support of "First Man" and "Bohemian Rhapsody" in the sound categories, and renewed support for the Swedish fantasy novel "Border" in Best. Makeup and hairstyle. "First Man" also found a lot of support for Best Visual Effects, far ahead of the popular "Ready Player One" and "Avengers: Infinity War" blockbuster movies.

As for the Spirit Awards: it's very tight. While Oscar nominations tend to present a mix of critical hits and commercial success, they despise – Looking at you, "Roma" versus "Bohemian Rhapsody" – the handpicked nominees for the Spirit Awards tend to make more noise with critics.

In the Best Film category, "If Beale Could Talk" Barry Jenkins has a slight advantage over "8th grade", beating a single vote the crowd assembler, the teenage age of Bo Burnham. The Best Director category is a link between two Academy Awards shutters, with directors Debra Noik and Debout without a trace, and Lynne Ramsay, director of "You Were Never Really Here", getting the same number of votes. Finally, the category of the Cassavetes Prize of the Spirits distinguishes films worth less than $ 500,000, which naturally distinguishes them from the cheapest Oscar contenders of this year's race.

While fewer critics have chosen to vote in this category, perhaps illustrating the lower number of those who have seen the films in the running, a popular favorite has won: Jim's bittersweet "Thunder Road" Cummings, who won the Grand Jury Prize at SXSW. find success in a DIY auto-distribution game at the top of the category.

Of course, while the Oscars can only reward a handful of people on Sunday, critics have many different opinions. Go to the next page to browse the full list of finalists in each category, followed by a list of all the critics who participated in this year's survey.

S & # 39; register: Stay on top of the latest news from film and television! Sign up for our electronic newsletters here.