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The more things change in the NFL, the more they stay the same. After their sixth Super Bowl win with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at the helm, the defending New England Patriots open the 2019 season as our favorite to win again. The other contenders also look like last season: Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles round out the top five Super Bowl odds, according to our forecasts. .
But our NFL Elo model at changed quite significantly. You can learn more about how it all works here, but in summary, we've added a number of wrinkles to make our football choices more precise:
- Quarterback adjustments. We alluded to this over the summer, but we are now following the slippery performance grades of every QB in the league, which can then be compared to a team's slippery QB score to adjust their Elo in games with a different shift start. (By the way, we have a new interactive page that shows the relative quality of each quarterback in the league.)
- What would Vegas do? In the past, our pre-season notes were simply the final score of each team compared to the previous season, which returned to the league's average Elo score of one-third. But our new system also incorporates ratings derived from a team's under / over wins in the Las Vegas sportsbook, giving them double the average Elo weight when setting the odds. pre-season of a team.
- Distance traveled and rest matter. We used to give 65 Elo points to each of the games that were not neutral. We are now modifying our field effect by using the distance the visiting team had to travel to the match, betting a team of 4 Elo points per 1,000 miles driven. The teams also perform better after a week or so (including teams that do not play during the first week of the playoffs). So we give a bonus of 25 Elo points each time a team starts a more restful and fresher game.
- The playoffs are different. We found that talent differences between opposing teams tended to be magnified in the NFL playoffs. The Elo differentials are now multiplied by 1.2 before calculating the winning probabilities and the points spreads expected for the playoff games.
Overall, these changes have significantly improved our historical backtesting forecasts. We are therefore confident that our 2019 choices will be better than ever.
And what are these choices, exactly? Let's see what our Elo model thinks of each division of the NFL, starting with …
How do we predict AFC East race
| Chance of … | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | QB starting | vs moy | Elo rating | Proj. victories | Make series | Win Division | Win the Super Bowl |
| New England | T. Brady | 52 | 1640 | 11.1 | 80% | 69% | 14% |
| Buffalo | J. Allen | -12 | 1475 | 7.6 | 30 | 15 | 1 |
| N.Y. Jets | S. Darnold | -48 | 1452 | 7.1 | 24 | 11 | 1 |
| Miami | R. Fitzpatrick | -2 | 1389 | 5.5 | ten | 4 | <1 |
As we said above, the patriots are not just the favorites of the division (for what looks like a millionth consecutive season), but are also the best choice of the model for the Super Bowl. Their fate is tied to the fact that Tom Brady continues to play well at an age when no other quarter has done that, of course, and he will have to do it without the favorite safety cover, Rob Gronkowski, who retired in March. But Brady has yet to show much signs of slowing down and he will be able to face the NFL's easiest program in 2019. Perhaps surprisingly, Elo is giving the invoices a slight advantage over the Jets for second place in the East. The second-year quarterbacks of both teams (Josh Allen and Sam Darnold) played well last season, but our model loves Allen a little bit more. The off-season was more hectic with the signing of Le'Veon Bell and the brutal dismissal of GM Mike Maccagnan, but the Bills could have progressed more steadily. And the dolphins the back, although they have the second best in the division, Elo QB, the newcomer, Ryan Fitzpatrick. (Among the questions related to Miami tanks, Vegas attributes the Phins odds of 500 to 1 for the Super Bowl, the worst in football.)
How do we predict AFC North race
| Chance of … | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | QB starting | vs moy | Elo rating | Proj. victories | Make series | Win Division | Win the Super Bowl |
| Pittsburgh | B. Roethlisberger | 87 | 1569 | 9.5 | 58% | 41% | 5% |
| Baltimore | L. Jackson | -40 | 1527 | 8.4 | 41 | 26 | 3 |
| Cleveland | B. Mayfield | 9 | 1516 | 8.4 | 41 | 25 | 2 |
| Cincinnati | A. Dalton | -40 | 1414 | 6.2 | 15 | 8 | <1 |
Rumors of SteelersThe disappearance seems to have been greatly exaggerated. Despite a tumultuous off season resulting in the official loss of Bell and sending receiver Antonio Brown to the Raiders, Pittsburgh remains the best team in the North. This is partly thanks to Ben Roethlisberger, who ranks first overall in Elo, and partly because the Steelers have one of the easiest programs in the league. the crows and Browns are neck to neck behind them; Elo is skeptical about Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson, after posting not-so-good rookie statistics, but thinks he's outnumbered Baker Mayfield in Cleveland – despite the big Browns off-season ( Hello, Odell) and its general level in 2019. Meanwhile, the Bengals The fourth quarter, Andy Dalton, has seen better days and the team is about to coach a new coach (Zac Taylor).
How do we predict AFC South race
| Chance of … | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | QB starting | vs moy | Elo rating | Proj. victories | Make series | Win Division | Win the Super Bowl |
| Houston | D. Watson | 29 | 1533 | 8.4 | 43% | 32% | 3% |
| Tennessee | Mr Mariota | -34 | 1502 | 7.8 | 36 | 25 | 2 |
| Jacksonville | N. Foles | 9 | 1498 | 7.8 | 35 | 24 | 2 |
| Indianapolis | J. Brissett | -55 | 1479 | 7.3 | 28 | 19 | 1 |
The AFC South Division went through a dramatic upheaval when Andrew Luck retired two weeks ago, giving the division a new favorite: Texans. Houston is now only marginally in possession of this distinction, with No. 6 seed Deshaun Watson leading the pack – despite the bombing that led star Jadeveon Clowney to Seattle. the Titans is not far behind Houston, although quarterback Marcus Mariota has regressed in recent years: in week 12 of the 2016 season, his Elo adjustment would have been 61 points higher than an average quarter; now it's 34 points below average. the jaguars are also right, thanks in part to the acquisition of former Eagles second-seeded Nick Foles; Foles adds 14 Elo points to the team's long-term QB history rating (ie Blake Bortles). Finally, the Colts Elo's prediction, literally overnight, after Luck's retirement. The backup Jacoby Brissett alone brings back about 90 points less to Elo than would have been luck – a hard blow to Indy's chances of making a comeback in the playoffs. Nevertheless, it is the league's most uncertain division race.
How do we predict AFC West race
| Chance of … | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | QB starting | vs moy | Elo rating | Proj. victories | Make series | Win Division | Win the Super Bowl |
| Kansas City | P. Mahomes | 59 | 1615 | 10.3 | 69% | 50% | 9% |
| L.A. Chargeurs | P. Rivers | 4 | 1580 | 9.6 | 59 | 36 | 6 |
| Denver | J. Flacco | -16 | 1462 | 6.8 | 20 | 9 | 1 |
| Oakland | D. Carr | -26 | 1413 | 5.8 | 12 | 5 | <1 |
the The Chiefs are the second most likely team to win the Super Bowl, lagging behind the Patriots. One of the main reasons: Elo classifies Patrick Mahomes as the league's fourth most useful quarterback behind Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. Although KC will probably regress a bit after last year's breakthrough (we think the Chiefs' points differential will go from +144 to +79), and the defense is not better than the average (16th from ESPN's Power Index Index), we believe it's the team most likely to dethrone New England. the Chargers are not far behind either, finishing sixth overall. L.A. did not do much during the off-season – and his injury problems with the brand are already beginning to arise – but this remains one of the most talented teams in the game. The gap between the first two and last two of this division is immense. the Broncos Joe Flacco, former Ravens quarterback, but improved, he is still mediocre at best. End of summer for the Raiders was a circus even by the standards of a team of "hard knocks"; Brown may improve QB numbers Derek Carr, but the team has many more question marks. Oakland and Denver will also not be helped by the two most difficult programs in the league.
How do we predict NFC East race
| Chance of … | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | QB starting | vs moy | Elo rating | Proj. victories | Make series | Win Division | Win the Super Bowl |
| Philadelphia cream | C. Wentz | 20 | 1586 | 9.8 | 63% | 49% | 7% |
| Dallas | D. Prescott | 18 | 1547 | 8.9 | 49 | 33 | 4 |
| N.Y. Giants | E. Manning | -27 | 1424 | 6.4 | 17 | 9 | <1 |
| Washington | C. Keenum | -24 | 1427 | 6.3 | 16 | 9 | 1 |
Last year, the reigning champion Eagles suffered a historic hangover to start its 2018 season, but eventually allowed the ship to qualify for the playoffs and even win a first-round match. Armed with QO (Carson Wentz), eighth in the standings, a talented support cast and one of the NFL's easier schedules, our model thinks Philadelphia should be the division's favorite in 2019 – especially if the Eagles have a better chance of getting hurt. The champion is in defense Cowboys However, regardless of the attack on RB Ezekiel Elliott, the Eagles are the favorites. We rank fourth at Dak Prescott ninth in Elo, just behind Wentz. Back in the division are the giants and Redskins; Washington has the best Elo rating, but is slightly less likely to qualify for the playoffs because of a more busy schedule than New York. As a matter of fact, both teams have mediocre veteran QBs (Eli Manning and Case Keenum) who are trying to repel the ransacked recruits (Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins).
How do we predict NFC North race
| Chance of … | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | QB starting | vs moy | Elo rating | Proj. victories | Make series | Win Division | Win the Super Bowl |
| Chicago | Mr. Trubisky | 12 | 1566 | 9.1 | 52% | 37% | 5% |
| Minnesota | K. Cousins | 12 | 1540 | 8.5 | 43 | 27 | 3 |
| Green Bay | A. Rodgers | 28 | 1522 | 8.2 | 38 | 24 | 3 |
| Detroit | Mr. Stafford | -22 | 1458 | 6.9 | 22 | 12 | 1 |
It's the tightest division race of the NFC. the Bear Mitchell Trubisky is Elo's second-worst quarterback in the North. (He's 13th overall, so it's mostly about the quality of the passers-by of this division.) On the other side, the amount of talent on the Chicago defense is impressive, a necessary element that the Bears hope to repeat as last year. . most radical defense in terms of allowed points. the The Vikings slightly lower but still ranked 13th in the Elo rankings. Should we then blame QB Kirk Cousins for the disappointing 2018 Minnesota season? Probably not. Although his Elo score was not as high as in his 2016 or 2017 campaigns, Cousins was good for most of last year and he started in 2019 as a quarterback at 12th rank. But the best QB Elo in the division belongs to Aaron Rodgers of packers. Although former coach Mike McCarthy did not always put him in the best position to succeed, Rodgers still had good results last season and is currently ranked seventh in the Elo quarter. (This is the rest of the alignment that holds Green Bay with a probability of division higher than that of 24%.) Finally, we have the the Lions. They plan to finish fourth, quarterback Matthew Stafford coming off his worst season in years and a second-year coach already in the hot seat. But we are asking Detroit to return to the NFL standings with a 7-9 record, after a 6-10 break last season.
How do we predict NFC South race
| Chance of … | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | QB starting | vs moy | Elo rating | Proj. victories | Make series | Win Division | Win the Super Bowl |
| New Orleans | D. Brees | 61 | 1604 | 10.0 | 63% | 46% | 8% |
| Atlanta | Mr. Ryan | 67 | 1533 | 8.3 | 39 | 23 | 3 |
| Carolina | C. Newton | 14 | 1515 | 8.3 | 38 | 22 | 3 |
| Tampa Bay | J. Winston | +7 | 1446 | 6.6 | 17 | 9 | 1 |
At the top of the NFC South, we have Drew Brees and the saints entering as favorites to win the division for a third consecutive year. Elo considers Brees the league's third-best quarterback, although he has had the wind in his last season and will turn 41 in January. Fortunately for New Orleans, his actors seem to be good enough to help Brees get old, ranking eighth in the Elo group, independent of QB. With regard to the falconsMatt Ryan is # 2 in our QB standings, but the rest of the team ranks 25th in Elo, independent of QB. It's more an indictment of a 23rd-ranked FPI defense than an offense that still includes an extremely productive WR, Julio Jones, but Atlanta is hoping that a staff of coaches made up of all new coordinators can help Ryan. the panthers Only three seasons after an appearance in the Super Bowl are eliminated, but they have passed exactly 24-24 since then. Elo is demanding more from the same season this season, with a projected 8-8 record, although Carolina has QB # 10 in our standings (Cam Newton) and a respectable 38 percent chance of returning to the playoffs . Finally, the buccaneers hope to end the drought of the franchise after 11 seasons – but they have to improve the defensive performance of last year and get more consistency from Jameis Winston and a pass attack that had the third variance the Highest QB Elo match to match a team in 2018.
How do we predict NFC West race
| Chance of … | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | QB starting | vs moy | Elo rating | Proj. victories | Make series | Win Division | Win the Super Bowl |
| L.A. Rams | J. Goff | -9 | 1588 | 9.6 | 60% | 46% | 7% |
| Seattle | R. Wilson | 14 | 1545 | 8.7 | 46 | 31 | 4 |
| San Francisco | J. Garoppolo | -21 | 1480 | 7.4 | 28 | 17 | 1 |
| Arizona | K. Murray | -50 | 1389 | 5.5 | ten | 6 | <1 |
the rams They just played in a Super Bowl game, and at times last season they seemed unbeatable, especially because of GOAT's performance from defensive lineman Aaron Donald. Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley still have questions. To say that there were no major factors in the playoffs would be a euphemism. L.A could be regressed even though Elo still considers Rams Division favorites. A number of signs point to a decline, from LA's record 6-1 in last year's tight games and favorable rebounding recoveries, to a more difficult schedule and even to the possibility of adverse effects. made more injuries. Elo thinks the Rams' points differential will go from +143 to +58 this season. Behind them, the Seahawks Elo QB, the best of the division, to Russell Wilson, and they did some reworking in the low season – Clowney and Ziggy Ansah will replace Frank Clark during the race at the pass, for example. But Seattle generally looks like the same good but not great team that was last season. the 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo will do his best after the QB has injured himself three times in the 2018 season. But is Jimmy G. good? Elo is still not sure. Garoppolo ranks 22nd among novice players in 2019, despite its high price. All three of these teams could potentially compete for the division. For the cardinals, the tandem formed by rookie quarterback Kyler Murray and first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury, appears to be at best a good plan. Elo gives Arizona the worst score and tied for the lowest probability of playoffs in the NFL this season.
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