Who has the toughest route at Super Bowl 54? Ranking of the 32 NFL teams

If you're tired of watching the Patriots play in the Super Bowl, then I have bad news for you: their series of three consecutive appearances might not end this year and that's because all NFL teams, New England has the easiest path to the Super Bowl LIV, at least according to our planning formula.

If your first thought after hearing this is that the Patriots still seem to have the simplest schedule, I do not disagree with you and I ask you to send all the complaints and conspiracy theories on this subject to Roger Goodell. I'll send them to you, but he stopped answering my e-mails a long time ago.

As for the Patriots calendar, if you're wondering how we already know that they have the easiest way to access the Super Bowl, it's because we've designed a formula and ranked the way of each team to the game played on February 2, 2020. Essentially, we reviewed the 32 NFL programs, dissected the 256 regular-season games, and examined the Super Bowl odds to determine who had the most difficult program , and therefore the most difficult path leading to the Miami Super Bowl LIV.

The easiest way to categorize each NFL schedule is to: use the strength of the calendarbut we decided to throw it out of the window, because it was not really the most effective way to evaluate the schedule problems. Instead, we developed our own formula for classifying each schedule.

To develop our formula, we started by reviewing each individual match according to the calendar of each team, in order to be able to classify the matches according to the difficulty. If you're wondering how it works, here is a quick example: Although the four teams from CAF East will face the Steelers this year, not all games are ranked the same as in the calendar formula.

For example, the Patriots open the season at home against the Steelers, which means they have plenty of time to prepare for Pittsburgh. For their part, the Dolphins must hit the road to face the Steelers on a Monday night of this season.

From the point of view of timing, the game is the same: both teams play against the Steelers. However, the Dolphins game is considered more difficult in our formula as they will play against a Pittsburgh team that is 13-2 on Monday under Mike Tomlin and has never lost a Monday match at home with him as coach. These individual nuances are taken into account in planning ratings.

After reviewing the difficulty of the calendar, we also watched the chances of Super Bowl and that's because Las Vegas odds makers seem to know what they're doing. If you look at the odds from last year, the patriots and rams were the two favorites to play in the Super Bowl LIII, and guess who ended up playing in the Super Bowl LIII? Yes, you guessed correctly.

Basically, odds are smarter than you and they are smarter than me, so if they think your team will be a contender this year, your team will likely be a contender, which is why we use the Super Bowl odds in the part of our formula.

The last part of the formula concerns the first three games of the season. We have weighted these three games slightly more than the other 13, as they tend to give a good indication of how a team will play throughout the season. Basically, teams that do not win a single victory in their first three games almost never qualify in the playoffs.

Since 1990, only four teams have started at 0-3 and have qualified for the playoffs (Chargers 1992, Lions 1995, Bills 1998, Texans 2018). Although the Texans have managed the feat last year, there is a reason for this to have happened only four times in 29 seasons, and that 's because it' s almost impossible to succeed.

Although a 0-3 start almost always means you will miss the playoffs, 3-0 usually means good things in the NFL: From 1990 to 2010, 75.9% of the teams that started 3-0 have participated in the playoffs. These probabilities fall to 54.9% for the 2-1 teams and 23.3% for the 1-2 teams.

This basically means that if your favorite team has a killer squabble during the first three weeks of the season, you should probably give up 2019 and start planning the 2020 draft. When I say that, I look directly at the fans. Jaguars, Redskins and Dolphins, who have three of the most difficult schedules early in the season according to our formula. In fact, if you're a fan of one of these three teams, you may just want to click here and see our 2020 draft instead of continuing to read it.

For all the others, let's continue.

Another thing to note is that starting the year with a winning record during the first three weeks has almost become a prerequisite for entering a conference title game. In the past four seasons, 15 of the 16 teams that took part in the AFC and NFC games started the season at 2-1 or better. This does not necessarily mean that your favorite team will succeed if it starts 2-1, it simply means that it will almost certainly not do it if it starts 1-2 or 0-3. (Since 2015, the only team that has resisted this trend was the 2018 Patriots, but the Patriots have withstood many trends over the years and it is unlikely that another team could emulate them).

At the other end of the program, the last three games of the season have no more weight, because they do not always mean the same thing for everyone, especially when a team is resting. The Saints went 0-3 in their last three games in 2009 and still won the Super Bowl. The Ravens went 1-2 on their last three places in 2012 and also won the Super Bowl.

As far as this year's Super Bowl is concerned, if we look at this ranking, it seems we are going to end up with the Patriots and Eagles competing in Miami. I'm sure everyone would like that, and by everyone, I mean nobody outside of Boston or Philadelphia.

Without further ado, let's find out who has the hardest way to get to the Super Bowl LIV, starting with the Bears, who have the hardest way of all. Sorry, Bears fans.

Hardest route for the Super Bowl LIV

The NFL does not care if the Bears celebrate their 100th birthday this season, as Chicago has received the league's most brutal program this year. After being 12-4 last season, the Bears will definitely have a worse record this year, mainly because that's what happens to just about every team after a year when they beat 12-4 . From 2015 to 2017, 13 teams registered a score of 12-4 or more and of these 13 teams, 12 had a worse record the following season. Of course, none of this prevents Bears fans from betting a lot of money on their team to win the Super Bowl this year.

More bets were placed on the Bears to win the Super Bowl compared to other teams of several sports bets in Las Vegas.
The story is very different at sportsbook on the East Coast. Http://www.t.co/tiTRwvmHUJ

– David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) August 19, 2019

The problem with wagering a lot of money on the Bears to win the whole thing is that it's basically the same thing as setting fire to your money, at least that's all. I said Will Brinson.

Difficulty level: 110875

The Vikings not only have the second toughest NFL program this year, but they also have five games in prime time, which could be a problem for Minnesota as their quarterback struggles to win at night. Kirk Cousins ​​has played a total of 18 primetime matches in his career and in these games, he left only 5-13. If it's not too late, the Vikings may want to think about getting their games to prime time at an earlier time slot. Difficulty level: 110625

The award for the AFC's toughest program goes to the Broncos, though let's be honest, it's not really a reward. If the Broncos want to go beyond their schedule, they will definitely need an elite season of Joe Flacco, who has not really played at the elite level since about 2012. The good news for the Broncos is that they have an elite defense was directed by an elite defensive coordinator head coach last year, which could be enough to catch up if the starting quarterback did not play. Difficulty level: 109.375

The Texans had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last year, and although the unit may be a bit better in 2019, it probably will not matter as Houston will be facing a brutal program. Fortunately for the Texans, there is one guy in the NFL who can survive a brutal schedule playing behind a horrible offensive line, that is Deshaun Watson. After all, this is the guy who was sacked 62 times in 2018, a top in the league, who played a part of the season with a broken rib / partially collapsed lung and still leads the Texans to the playoffs. If Watson succeeds in one way or another through the whole season, he should win some kind of reward. Difficulty level: 109.0

The only thing more painful than getting frostbite in a cryotherapy room is to be a fan of the Oakland Raiders. If you're a fan of the Bay Area, not only will your team forget you this year, but, depending on the Raiders' schedule, there's a good chance their last year in Oakland will be ugly. After opening the season against the Broncos, the Raiders play consecutive games against the Chiefs, Vikings, Colts, Bears and Packers. With a stretch like this, Antonio Brown's helmet grievance could be the highlight of the season. Difficulty level: 107375

According to their schedule, the Dolphins could be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs by the end of the 3rd week. According to our programming formula, Miami has one of the toughest three-game debut of any NFL team. year (Baltimore, New England, Dallas). They also play the Chargers in the fourth week, a series of brutal starts for a team that does not even know who will be his starting quarterback. Brian Flores may not win his first NFL victory before October. Difficulty level: 106.5

The Seahawks have the toughest schedule of NFC West, but that does not really matter because they have Russell Wilson. If Wilson has proven anything in his career, it's because he can lead the Seahawks to at least 10 wins, no matter how difficult their schedule is, who is his offensive coordinator or the number of halfbacks that Seattle decides to use. Basically, no matter the circumstances, Wilson finds a way to win. Difficulty level: 106125

The Packers hope better than Aaron Rodgers masters Matt LaFleur 's attack from here the end of week 1, as there will not be enough time for any period of time. adjustment at the beginning of the season. With the Bears, Vikings and Broncos, the Packers will face the top three defenses of the NFL in the first three weeks. The Packers are also the only NFL team this season to have a road match the week after playing a Monday night game on the road. Basically, the time maker did not do any service in Green Bay. Difficulty level: 105375

If the NFL rookie quarter ends up being a setback this year, it will be good news for the Lions as they face all the QB's entered in the first round of the NFL 2019 draft. The Lions will start the season with Kyler Murray and could face Daniel Jones (week 8) and Dwayne Haskins (week 12) if these two people have already got a starting position. The Lions will also face the Broncos in Week 16, which means they could face Drew Lock if Denver had already dropped Joe Flacco. Lions are taking better advantage of the fact that they can potentially face as many recruits as the rest of their program is brutal. Difficulty level: 103.75

The season is decisive for Marcus Mariota and, unfortunately, for the Titans quarterback, the NFL builder seems to prefer this second option. The Titans will open their season with three of their first four games on the road, which is not ideal for a quarterback who has never driven Tennessee to a winning record on the road in his career . There is no quarterback controversy now, but there could be some if the Titans jump to a 1-3 or 0-4 start. Difficulty level: 103625

"Zeke who? "

According to our programming formula, the Cowboys have the first three weeks of the qualifying season in the NFL, which means that it would not be crazy to see them go to 3-0. This is good news for the Cowboys, but bad for Ezekiel Elliott, because if it happened with Tony Pollard as a pointer, Jerry Jones might actually forget who Zeke is. Difficulty level: 102.75

When Patrick Mahomes is your quarterback, no matter how complicated your schedule is, Mahomes has proven that it's fundamentally unstoppable. In fact, the only defense that could stop Mahomes last year was his own defense, which you may have noticed when they gave AFC's title game to the Patriots. If you need a quick update, Dee Ford will line up on an interception of Tom Brady in the 4th quarter, which would have sealed the match, and the Chiefs' defense also let the Patriots convert three third and ten in the win. drive in overtime. Difficulty level: 101.75

With The Vein Bell and Antonio Brown officially in Pittsburgh, let's find out if subtraction addition actually works in the NFL. Even though the distractions have disappeared, that does not necessarily mean that the Steelers will be better than last year. The only thing that could hurt the Steelers in 2019 is the fact that they have the toughest schedule in the North AFC. One of the reasons for this is that they will start the season with a series of three brutal games. First, they will face a quarterback that they have never beaten on the road (Tom Brady). After that, they get the Seahawks in the second week, followed by a game in San Francisco in the third week, which could be a problem, as Big Ben and Mike Tomlin have never won a match together in the spindle (The Steelers are 1-5 overall with Tomlin in the West, but Michael Vick was the starter in the only game they won.) Big Ben is 0-5. Difficulty level: 100.75

The series of shots that have had the worst chance of being among pre-season injuries among all NFL teams will certainly continue this year. Not only did they lose Derwin James for a substantial amount of timebut Keenan Allen's status for week 1 is also in the air. Basically, no matter how complex your schedule is if you do not have enough players to line up a team. Difficulty level: 100.75

If the Ravens decide to spend the whole season without throwing a pass, it will eventually play in their favor. As Warren Sharp, expert in analysis, explained, we on the podcast CBS Sports Pick Six recentlyRavens play against several teams this year struggling to stop the race, which is good news for the Ravens because they like to run. In fact, the Ravens start their season against both teams – Miami and Arizona – who were the worst against the race in 2018. Difficulty level: 100.5

The Falcons road to the Super Bowl would probably be easier this year if their schedule included only teams from NFC South. In 2018, the Falcons went 4-2 in the division, but just 3-7 against all other teams. The Falcons road to the Super Bowl would also probably be easier if it had an offensive line that could block, but for now, they have none of these things. Difficulty level: 99.125

If Kyler Murray has not yet found a way to run Kliff Kingsbury's offensive before December, we should probably be content to re-register the Cardinals for the best choice of ranking general. If Murray and Arizona are struggling to enter in December, the situation will only get worse as they close the final month of the season with games against Rams (Dec. 1), Steelers (Dec. 8), Browns ( December). 15), Seahawks (December 22) and Rams (December 29). Difficulty level: 98.75

The Panthers are hoping that Cam Newton's surgically repaired shoulder spends the entire season because he's starting to struggle like last year, things could go wrong for Carolina, really ugly, especially during the last three weeks of the season. The Panthers are part of two NFL teams this year that will close the season with three straight games against playoff teams in 2018 (Seahawks, Colts, Saints). At the end of the 2018 season, Newton could not throw the ball over 30 yards from the field. Therefore, if he throws a 31-yard pass in December, it's an advantage for the Panthers. Difficulty level: 98.25

The Redskins do not know who their quarterback is going to be, their the left tackle does not want to play for the team and they are one of three NFL teams to open the year with three consecutive games against teams that participated in the playoffs last season. The Redskins road to the Super Bowl is not considered the hardest, but it might as well be, because there is no way to get there. Difficulty level: 98.0

The Rams did not take Todd Gurley to Hawaii for their pre-season game against the Cowboys, but they probably should have done it, just to see how his knee would react to the long flight, and that's because he'll have to face a lot of time. flights this year. During the 2019 season, the Rams will travel more miles than any other NFC team and the second highest number of miles in the NFL. The 29,974 miles traveled by the team will rank second in the league, behind the Raiders (32,023). Difficulty level: 97625

Jaguars have one of the easiest programs in the NFL, but it does not really mean anything if your offense can not score points. In summary, Nick Foles would be better off with his Super Bowl MVP Pants to start the season, as he will lead an offense that scored the fewest points per game at AFC last year (15 , 3), and his first match is against a team of Chiefs. who scored more points than anyone else (35.3). Difficulty level: 97.00

If the NFL wanted to be fair, it would pose to the Saints an unlimited amount of pass interference this year, since they were the worst team in 2018, but the NFL is not fair and we know, because look at the calendar of saints. New Orleans is one of two teams in the league this year to open the season with four straight games against playoff teams in 2018 (Texans, Rams, Seahawks, Cowboys). Difficulty level: 96.75

As for Andrew Luck's ankle, the time is not yet in panic at Indy, but he's not on the ground during the 1st week, almost everyone in the state of Indiana should start to panic. The reason is that the Colts have never participated in the playoffs in any season where Luck missed at least one game. Difficulty level: 96.75

If Kyle Shanahan can not change things this year in San Francisco, it may be time to get rid of him. Not only does he reclaim Jimmy Garoppolo, but the 49ers also have the easiest schedule of the NFC West, according to our formula. Of course, if Shanahan wants to turn things around, he will probably want to start by asking Jimmy to stop interception in practice.

If Shanahan wants to change things, he will probably also have to figure out how to win a match in the Eastern Time Zone. Since 2015, San Francisco has gone from 0 to 12 years old when it was playing at the time is. Difficulty level: 96625

If you save your jokes about Andy Dalton 's average, you' d better use them this year because it might be the last time we'll see him wearing the Bengals' uniform. Cutting Dalton after the 2019 season will not cost the Bengals anything. Chances are that it will happen if he ends up struggling in Zac Taylor's system. That being said, the Bengals might be thinking of signing a lifetime contract for Dalton if he can lead them to the playoffs this year, and although it sounds crazy, they have one of the easiest schedules in the world. NFL. Difficulty level: 95.75

Although the Buccaneers have one of the NFL's easier schedules, there is a giant asterisk here: our formula has no idea how Tampa players will react to being sent on the road for seven weeks, this. Oh, and just in case you missed or forgot, the Buccaneers will stay 49 consecutive days without playing a home game in 2019. If that sounds unfair, the NFL agrees with you, and we know it because the league's schedule makers apologized for the Tampa calendar. Difficulty level: 95.00

The Giants have one of the easiest programs in the NFL this year, which means that their season will probably go one of two ways: they will surprise everyone and compete for the title NFC East, where everything will implode Eli Manning will be suspended in the eighth week. If you plan to bet on this bet, option B should probably suit you. Difficulty level: 93.00

If Carson Wentz manages to get through a healthy full season, the Eagles are definitely prepared for another Super Bowl race. Not only do they have the easiest schedule of their division, but they also have the easiest schedule of all NFC. As for Wentz, if it does not get bad this year, awarding the title of most valuable player should go to the Eagles offensive line and / or the team's coaching staff. Difficulty level: 91.75

After missing the Super Bowl for 53 consecutive years – they have never played in the game – it's like being in a year when the Browns might be able to break through. According to their formula, not only are they talented enough to win the division, but they also have the fourth-easiest program in the entire NFL. Now, we just need to know if Freddie Kitchens can or can not coach because some people do not seem to think that he can.

Difficulty level: 88.00

The Jets not only have one of the NFL's easier schedules this year, but they also have another advantage over all other teams in the league: they will travel as few kilometers as possible. The Jets will be fly a total of just 6,730 miles to play their eight away games this season, making it the only team not to travel at least 8,000 miles this season. Difficulty level: 87.125

If you are considering making Bills a choice for the playoffs, it may be the year to do so, mainly because they have one of the easiest schedules of the NFL this season, according to our formula. Of course, if they want to participate in the playoffs, it's better that they have a place for the 13th week because from Thanksgiving, they have a brutal four-game sequence that includes games against Cowboys (Away), the Ravens and the Steelers. (far) and the patriots (far). On reflection, maybe the Bills should not be your choice for the playoffs this year. Difficulty level: 85.75

Based on our formula, the team with the easiest path to the Super Bowl LIV is the New England Patriots, which will come as no surprise, as the Patriots seem to have the easiest way every year . While this seems like a huge NFL conspiracy to keep the Patriots at the top, the fact is that we have to blame the Jets, Bills and Dolphins for not being competitive in the last 20 years. Whatever it is, we should probably all win some time and go ahead and give them the Patriots for the Super Bowl. Difficulty level: 84375