Who leads the new Democratic polls 2020? Warren, Biden and Sanders

Recent polls show that the 2020 Democratic primary is set in a very tight three-way race, with voters deciding between former vice president Joe Biden, Senator Elizabeth Warren, and Senator Bernie Sanders.

Recently, the real movement was Warren solidifying in the early states, pleading for her to be a powerful challenger for Biden. In two of the most recent state elections, she even outstripped the vice president.

Over the weekend, she led the Des Moines Register poll in Iowa with 22% of the vote, compared to 20% for Biden. A new poll in New Hampshire in Monmouth actually put Warren in the lead for the first time, between 27% and 25% for Biden. Warren was in second place in a new study of Suffolk on Nevada, the third leading state. Sanders was third in those three new polls, nine to twelve points behind leaders.

The first three have moved away from the rest of the field. Senators Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana, mayor Pete Buttigieg took advantage of intense polls, but failed to maintain them. Others – Senator Cory Booker, former representative Beto O'Rourke and Senator Amy Klobuchar – are still languishing at less than 10% after months of campaigning. They are beginning to face the real possibility of being removed from future debates as the National Democratic Committee raises its standards.

According to the average of Real Clear Politics, Biden still enjoys a decent lead in national polls, but Warren has continued to grow, and Sanders still enjoys significant support.

A real clear policy

It is still too early, these margins are often within the margin of error, all these caveats apply. But it seems clear now that Democratic voters have limited their choice to the three-candidate presidency and that one of these three candidates, Warren, is enjoying a period of very good elections.

The last democratic presidential election ballot of 2020

Since the weekend, we have obtained three high-quality polls in the first three states of the presidential primary calendar. The first came from the Des Moines Register and CNN:

• Elizabeth Warren: 22%
• Joe Biden: 20%
• Bernie Sanders: 11%
• Pete Buttigieg: 9%
• Kamala Harris: 6%
• Cory Booker: 3%
• Amy Klobuchar: 3%
• Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
• Beto O'Rourke: 2%
• Tom Steyer: 2%
• Andrew Yang: 2%

On Tuesday, we saw polls done in New Hampshire and Nevada. Warren was running the New Hampshire Monmouth-USA Today survey, the first time she's been there:

• Warren 27%
• Biden 25%
• Sanders 12%
• Buttigieg 10%
• Harris 3%
• Booker 2%
• Gabbard 2%
• Klobuchar 2%
• Steyer 2%
• Yang 2%

Nevada is a notoriously difficult state to survey, but it's important as the third state to hold a contest. The University of Suffolk and USA Today found that Biden was in the lead, Warren in second and Sanders in third.

• Biden 23%
• Warren 19%
• Sanders 14%
• Harris 4%
• Buttigieg 3%
• Yang 3%
• Steyer 3%
• Booker 2%

At present, Warren is leading the average Real Clear Politics polls in Iowa, while Biden retains the advantage in New Hampshire and Nevada. He is also in the lead in South Carolina, fourth state of the calendar and to a certain extent. This would seem to suggest that he remains strong in the south and with many black voters, which could carry him away. California is a big first prize in 2020 and Biden leads, with Sanders in second place and Warren in third place behind. Even here, in his home country, Harris is 10 points behind the top three.

Buttigieg did well in Iowa and New Hampshire, but other than that, only Biden, Warren, and Sanders consistently have support above 15%, which is the threshold for winning primary election and caucus delegates. the rules of the Democratic Party.

This is the state of the Democratic primary. In anticipation of the general election, Trump seems in a bad position as Democrats in the House debate the opening of a formal dismissal inquiry.

Trump's hypothetical 2020 survey looks bad against every Dem

The latest polls show that President Donald Trump is lagging behind all Democrats in the 2020 general election, both nationally and in some states, even Texas. These were the latest figures in the Lone Star state of Latino Decisions, North Star Opinion Research and the University of Houston:

• Joe Biden 47%, Donald Trump 43%
• Bernie Sanders 48%, Donald Trump 42%
• Elizabeth Warren 44%, Donald Trump 42%
• Kamala Harris 45%, Donald Trump 44%
• Cory Booker 43%, Donald Trump 41%
• Julián Castro 44%, Donald Trump 41%

Pollsters and political handicappers should not read too much into the variations in how Democrats stand out against Trump in these polls. Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders could take advantage of the largest margins simply because they have the highest name identity among the Democrats of 2020.

But we can still learn something from these surveys. Their message is quite simple: Trump seems weak. The president lags behind in the 40s in the lead, which is consistent with his stubbornly low popularity ratings. Many Americans seem to be totally engaged or are actively considering voting for someone else. This is not where the incumbent, after three years of activity, should be if he wants a second term.

"The results tell us much more about the vulnerability of Trump than the strength of the different Democratic candidates against each other," said an investigator working with a 2020 campaign.

Trump has time to turn things around, but he does not seem as well placed to be re-elected as the last two presidents who won the second term.

There are other warnings if you look a little further than face-to-face numbers.

"Trump is sometimes slightly behind its approval rating in some of these polls, which is a worrying sign for a president who depended so much on the voters who loved him at the time and that Clinton was supporting "Kyle Kondik, editor at Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Policy Center," said.

Presidential approval notes have always been closely linked to voting behavior. Here is the average popularity rating of RealClearPolitics President, from the beginning of his presidency until now:

A real clear policy

That's the key to Trump and why his status with voters seems so perilous. Trump beat Clinton among voters who do not like the two candidates with a stark margin: 50% of those voters supported Trump versus 39% going to Clinton, according to CNN. But he can not count on the same chance this time, while the election is more likely to serve as a referendum to his first term.