Who will be the next MLB player to hit 500 home runs after Miguel Cabrera arrives at an exclusive club?

Tigres slugger Miguel Cabrera has hit his 500th career home run. He did so on Sunday, becoming the 28th player in history to reach the threshold of Major League Baseball. Long one of baseball’s most revered and legendary career brands, this is an incredibly prestigious moment for the future Hall of Fame.

Cabrera was the 28th player in MLB history to accomplish the feat. Who could be the 29th? Let’s take a look at a few candidates.

It could really go all the way. Cruz is 41 years old and has 57 home runs. It doesn’t really slow down either. He had 41 in 120 games in 2019, 16 in 53 games last year and 26 in 109 games this season. He has struggled since joining the Rays in July, although the circuits are still there. It’s a small sample and wouldn’t normally be of concern, but when you’re 41, there’s always a fear that a wall has been hit. I’m torn if he will or not. On the one hand, to think that a 41-year-old still has 57 home runs seems silly. On the other hand, the same goes for bets against Cruz that hit home runs, regardless of his age.

Stanton hasn’t quite been the home hitter this season as he has in years past. He has only 20 homers in 103 games. After hitting just seven in 2019-20 combined due to injury, he’s fallen behind what once seemed a sure-fire pace. He has 332 career circuits and is 31 years old. Does he still have 168 in him? He hit 188 from 2014 to 2018, a stretch that included his 2017 season of 59 home runs. During his season at the age of 28, Stanton made 305 home runs and looked as big for 500 as a player can get. Now the chances are not great. Of course, another season of over 50 circuits and everything changes again.

Trout is 30 years old and has 310 career homers. Injuries slowed his pace a bit in 2017, 2018 and 2019, but this year they’ve crushed him. He only appeared in 36 games. He hit 187 home runs in the five years leading up to last year’s pandemic season and easily has more years of play left than that. Before getting injured this season, Trout was hitting 0.333 / 0.466 / 0.624 with eight homers, so he’s still in his prime. It’s about staying on the ground. He’s under contract until 2030, so it’s a decent bet here. He just needs that calf injury to get better in the short term.

Freeman is aging well and playing a position that requires a high level of power to keep his job. He is in his season at 31 and has 267 career home runs. It’s a tall order to come home here as he will need a lot more 38-homer seasons like 2019. A few 23-homer seasons (like 2018) will put him too far to get there.

In 10 seasons, Harper, 28, has passed the midpoint. It is at 255 and is counting. He signed with the Phillies until 2031. He has avoided injury since 2017 and is aging well, having a star-rated season in 2021. As I mentioned to Stanton, things can turn quickly and it doesn’t. It’s never a “good” bet to say someone will get 500 homers when they get this far. Harper is definitely on the pace, however. I will say he is getting there.

Machado is a few months older than Harper and is now 29, but they are both 28 (this is determined with a deadline of June 30 and Machado’s birthday is July 6). Machado is a little behind Harper with 245 career homers, but if we include Harper here we have to include Machado with age and home run totals being so close. Machado is also in his 10th year and is approaching the midpoint. He signed with the Padres until 2028, so it’s possible he won’t have that much time.

The next generation?

Will we have to wait for someone from the next wave of kids to be the next hitter in the 500 home runs? Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. is only 22 and 60. Fernando Tatis, Jr, 22 and 73. Juan Soto is 22 and 89. Ronald Acuña, Jr. is 23 and three figures at 105 years. Being so far away, there’s little chance of accurately predicting where they’ll end up, but each of the four has the talent and has built a good base. If he’s forced to guess, Soto is my man here.