Why 2021 could be a tough year for cruises

The year 2020 will be a year that many will want to erase from memory as soon as possible. The forecast for 2021 is good with a vaccine approved in many countries and vaccination programs underway.

But what about the cruise industry? Is there reason to hope for the year ahead, or are there still many pitfalls that cruise lines will need to avoid?

We take a look at the challenges that 2021 brings, what cruise lines will need to do to overcome adversity, and how long financial experts believe it will take before the industry reaches pre-COVID operating levels.

Will vaccines make the industry safe?

Many people around the world are heralding the arrival of vaccines as the savior of the cruise industry. However, that seems unlikely. The point is, cruise lines have enough challenges to overcome that vaccines have little effect on.

At the moment, vaccination programs are in the start-up phase, and according to experts, it will be several months before a full immunization program is underway worldwide. The best scenario for achieving an effective stopping level of the virus is fall or winter 2021.

For cruise passengers, the procedures and regulations to which they have submitted and the procedures implemented by the CDC will not disappear for a year.

Ships sailing at reduced capacity, 100% testing, social distancing, wearing masks and electronic passenger monitoring on board will exist for the foreseeable future.

Aif they are seen by the uninformed as a floating Petri dish, the cruise industry will come under intense scrutiny from the press, government agencies and the public in the future. Even after the conclusion of a full vaccination program, it seems more than likely that cruise lines will choose to keep at least some of the features that have been implemented.

The number of reservations is high, but the balance is fragile

Royal Caribbean, Norwegian, Carnival, MSC and many other cruise lines have recently made statements that the number of reservations for 2021 is high. And those numbers don’t just include people rebooked from canceled trips; many are new bookings.

This is great news and confirms that public confidence in the cruise industry has not faded. The saying that good memories last longer is a valid point here it seems. But the balance is fragile.

The cruise industry will have to get all the details 100% all the time over the next twelve months if they are to keep that confidence high. Incidences on board a small vessel such as Seadream 1rightly or wrongly have the potential to ruin all the hard work that has been put in.

The point is, the news of a false positive anywhere in the world would never gain so much attention in the mainstream media. like the false positive on board Quantum of the Seas; that alone should be a valuable lesson for all cruise lines.

Cruise lines have a long way to go

Predicting when the cruise industry will recover is incredibly difficult until the ships are still sailing. However, the fact that it will be years before we see a recovery towards a pro-covid era seems to be about right.

The number of passengers in 2020 is expected to exceed the 29 million passengers who sailed in 2019 by several million. For now, the projections made by Statista show that the number of passengers will probably not exceed 17 million passengers.

It will be 2024 before we see anything like the numbers we saw in 2019. With ships sailing 60-70% in 2021, even that figure looks optimistic.

Cruise lines will need to balance several extremes in 2021. On the one hand, cruise lines will need to ensure that all measures, protocols and regulations are properly executed.

Then again, cruise lines should also ensure that customers can enjoy their vacations. Not a single guest waits to be watched around a ship as guests at resorts around the world can vacation freely.

Also read: 15 Best New Cruise Ships To Start Sailing In 2021

The resumption of cruises in Europe, Asia and the Middle East are all positive points on the road to recovery. However, the absolute majority of world cruises are from the United States. Until the virus is properly contained and ships are sailing as usual, we cannot say that the road to recovery has been taken.

The road to recovery, as it often is, is long and difficult. It seems the cruise industry’s road is even longer and harder than other industries, and the whole world is watching.